Key's NBA Line, Monday 3-22-10
KeyElement
Banned
Philadelphia, +10.5, 190
New Jersey, +2, 193.5
Minnesota, -3.5, 226
Milwaukee, -4, 189
Oklahoma City, +1.5, 199
Chicago, +7, 208.5
New Orleans, -6, 214.5
Utah, -5, 197.5
Sacramento, -4, 203
Golden St, +6.5, 229.5
The only exact match so far is the Utah -5, so I will not be playing that game over. If the current total of 200 were to rise above the opener of 202 I would be tempted to go under, but I really don't think that is going to happen as the early money must have have figured this one the same way I did.
Interesting yesterday that the exact match on the opening total of 208 in Indiana pointed to another side winner in the Pacers +4 on the opener and +5 on the closer. I said they only needed +1.5 and even that was more than they needed with the outright win. Back later with a POD. BOL.
New Jersey, +2, 193.5
Minnesota, -3.5, 226
Milwaukee, -4, 189
Oklahoma City, +1.5, 199
Chicago, +7, 208.5
New Orleans, -6, 214.5
Utah, -5, 197.5
Sacramento, -4, 203
Golden St, +6.5, 229.5
The only exact match so far is the Utah -5, so I will not be playing that game over. If the current total of 200 were to rise above the opener of 202 I would be tempted to go under, but I really don't think that is going to happen as the early money must have have figured this one the same way I did.
Interesting yesterday that the exact match on the opening total of 208 in Indiana pointed to another side winner in the Pacers +4 on the opener and +5 on the closer. I said they only needed +1.5 and even that was more than they needed with the outright win. Back later with a POD. BOL.
Comments
God bless the beasts, children and those with too much disposable income that have pushed this total down 4.5 points from the opener of 205. I have run this game by four different methods or models, or whatever you want to call them, and absolutely cannot come out that low. The lowest of the four was 206.6 and I don't see any reason to doubt that as a minimum. The simple fact is neither team has played a lick of defense lately and even their last encounter at Dallas clocked in at 208. The Mavericks are averaging 103.6 ppg over the course of their last 10 and are negative .8 ppg. That's defense? The Hornets are even worse at 100.5 ppg and losing by a whopping 8.2 ppg. If I would be generous and median the numbers to shave off the rough edges, I still get the probable low of 206.6. Dallas trails Denver by only a half game for the 2 seed in the West, but is ahead of Utah by only 1.5 and must strive hard for every win. Since they play horrible defense won't they try to score as much as possible? The Hornets aren't going anywhere and have nothing to lose, so what is going to inspire them to play a little D? Some folks might be inclined to follow the steam and play under, but in my opinion all value is lost, if it was ever there in the first place, which I sincerely doubt. BOL. Key.
get the fuck out of here. well played sir.