Key's NBA Line Saturday 3-20-10

KeyElement

All I can say about yesterday is that if I (we) had played the spread of +12.5 in the exact match total of 193 on Washington Portland we would be a few bucks better off. That total dropped to 191 later on but it was an exact match at the time I made my plays. I am not sure how to correlate or describe it, but there is a definite connection between scoring, pace, probable total and probable spread. Anyway, it was another nice night for the line service at 6-4 on totals and 7-4 on spreads. Washington-Portland total does not count because I rate what the line service did versus the Bookmaker line at the time I posted.

Philadelphia, -6, 211.5
New Jersey, pk, 214
Miami, -1.5, 181.5
Memphis, -4, 227
Utah, -9, 214
Denver, -5.5, 188.5
Dallas, -1.5, 198

POD to follow at the max opportunity.

KeyElement

Bucks-Nuggets UNDER 203.5

This line is already coming down and should get whacked some more. The Bucks come in off a tough O.T. in Sacramento last night but that won't effect where they use their energy. Defense has been and still is the key for the Bucks and although it is coming up a little thanks to the recent competition, it is still only 87 ppg their last 10. The Nuggets have their own problems. In the pathetic 93-80 win over New Orleans the other night Carmelo Anthony scored his career high in rebounds, thanks to the fact neither team could shoot worth a darn. It may not be a quick recovery for the Nuggets tonight with the Bucks defense in their faces. The Nuggets have been surrendering 101 ppg their last 10 but the Bucks will not push the tempo enough to go much over their norm of 94.7. A tussle in Denver, at least until the Bucks legs wear out and by then it should be too late to push the total over the number. BOL, Key

twotimes

Good luck Key
twotimes


Good Luck To All

xlcf

Thanks Key! I haven't had a chance to check all plays record in the last week but I'm almost sure that if an individual had wagered on all games based on your advice he would be way up. Could you please confirm? Also, if you have the records, could you please let me know which service has been stronger lately? Sides or totals?

Thanks again for your hard work!

KeyElement

xlcf: Both are staying over 50% but I won't elaborate without permission from Edward or Goats because someone would surely question it. If Edward or Goats approves I will post the numbers. Just so they know, the record is kept versus the line at Bookmaker at the time I make the post. That could cause a very minor fluctuation from the opening or closing lines but is probably insignificant. I can say that with a certain degree of confidence because that other little study I am doing has surprised me with how seldom line moves make a difference, at least in the NBA. We gain or lose value of course with line moves but they tend to be right or wrong and almost never create a "middle" that made a difference, based on the time you played.

xlcf

Alright. Thanks for the information. Maybe you could post an "unofficial" record if they permit.

MikeNyce

Also 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milw has played over in those 2 road games including the OT game last night. Gonna ride this play with you. Good Luck

FerociousBOB

Key, I wanna make sure I know how to read your lines and come up with a play.

Philadelphia, -6, 211.5

Basically this means you think Philly will win by 6, so we should take them at -4.5 and take the over at 200.5, correct? (Yes i know they both lost).

KeyElement

Sorry they lost Bob, but your read is correct.

xlcf

Great call on the under guys! Thanks a lot!!!

truushot

Do you have a recommendation about what spread you would play if you where more of a gambler?

What I mean is, for the line, what is the differential that you would recommend? And for the over/under?

Using Bob's example and don't quote me on the lines as I'm using the closing ones, Philly only has a 1.5 differential on the line and 11.5 on the over/under. I can see that the over should be the play on the o/u but I'd think that the 1.5 point spread is to close for comfort. I realize that these aren't your recommend plays and as I've only recently joined the board, I haven't correlated all of your plays. I have seen you not take the obvious play according to your system, so obviously you have external factors that you consider besides just your generated projections.

Am I in the ballpark?

I'm asking if you'd be comfortable saying the spread differential should be at least 4? and the o/u maybe 7 or more.

Obviously, some gamblers look for less plays with more edge but many these days do the volume method.

Thanks for any input.

twotimes

Boy these people are really trying to pick your brain Key!

All I can say is thanks and keep posting!

Ill figure the rest out..

Good Luck
twotimes


Good Luck To All

xlcf

Don't see a problem on people asking for help...

KeyElement

No problem asking for help. It is an honor when someone considers your opinion to be something of value, worthy of paying attention to, so I thank you!

For the sake of those that are new, the assumption that the computed spreads are only a guideline is correct. I have spent years developing formulas that lean in the right direction and will stay over 50% over an extended period of time. Monitor them if you wish. I keep my records versus the lines at the time I had to call my shots for the day, but rating them versus the closing line will make only a small fluctuation of results occur. One thing I never do is go against my numbers. I either go with them or leave that play alone. Been there, done that, been burnt. The games I actually play and the POD I post for you guys have other factors built in or subjective judgment involved. Hope you enjoy, and thanks again.