Betting Talk

Key's NBA Line for Friday 3-12-10

KeyElementKeyElement Banned
edited March 2010 in Sports Betting
Well now that is disappointing. I am usually here so early I thought someone would have asked "Where's Key?" by now. I am not missed? Heartbreaking, but I'll get over it.

Here are the numbers. Remember, they can be close or way far away from the bookies, it is only important that they point in the right direction.

I will be back shortly with a POD for you.

Charlotte, -9.5, 196.5
Philadelphia, +8.5, 204
Boston, +1, 207
Miami, -7, 201
Memphis, -10.5, 205.5
Oklahoma City, -9.5, 202
Detroit, -2.5, 200.5
New Orleans, +3, 210
Minnesota, +1.5, 203.5
Milwaukee, -5.5, 15
Phoenix, -10, 196
Sacramento, +3, 190

Comments

  • Merlin21Merlin21 Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    I was ready to call the cops.... I was sweating it
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Key, I was going to make that post "Where is Key", yet I get your picks and thoughts for free...

    Just hoping nothing was amiss...

    Regards,
  • HowardBealHowardBeal Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    good luck
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited March 2010
    HowardBeal wrote:
    good luck

    Enough of that! :nono:
  • MikeNyceMikeNyce Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Figures the only line Im looking for on this list is the total in Milw.
  • HowardBealHowardBeal Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Goats wrote:
    Enough of that! :nono:

    :surrender: I wonder what was taking so long.......
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Key,

    This looks like the most divergence on multiple games this week.

    Before your next cut analysis, it looks like 3 choices for play of the day, and 3 other good choices:

    Boston +1 vs. Boston --9.5 (5Dimes)...play Indiana?
    Minnesota +1.5 vs.Minnesota +7(5Dimes)...Play San Antonio?
    Phoenix -10 v. Phoenix +2(5Dimes)...play Phoenix?

    Advantage:
    Miami -7 v. Miami -11 (5Dimes)...Chicago?
    Memphis -10.5 v. Memphis -7.5 (5Dimes)...NY Knicks?
    Milwaukee -5.5 v. Milwaukee -1 (5Dimes)...Milwaukee?

    Order:
    Phoenix
    Indiana
    San Antonio.

    Regards,
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    ok, quit teasin us...what's the POD?!?!
  • TexasHookEmTexasHookEm Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    KeyElement wrote:

    Charlotte, -9.5, 196.5
    Philadelphia, +8.5, 204
    Boston, +1, 207
    Miami, -7, 201
    Memphis, -10.5, 205.5
    Oklahoma City, -9.5, 202
    Detroit, -2.5, 200.5
    New Orleans, +3, 210
    Minnesota, +1.5, 203.5
    Milwaukee, -5.5, 15
    Phoenix, -10, 196
    Sacramento, +3, 190

    Key, I would bet a lot of money that the Milwaukee/Utah game goes over 15...
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Utah -1
    Utah-Milwaukee Under 196.5

    We may expect to see the Cavaliers and Lakers in the NBA finals but at this time the hottest teams in the East and West are the Jazz and Bucks. Both are on a tear and laying waste to everything in sight. Jazz are 16-4 SU, 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 and the Bucks counter that with 16-4 SU and 16-3-1 ATS. What you have is the unstoppable force versus the immovable object so obviously somethings got to give. The Bucks are a little hotter their last 10 at 9-1 and 9-0-1 versus 7-3, 7-3, but the point is all the same for our intents and purposes    . There several reasons I come down on the side of the Bucks. 1. Home court advantage. Unlike most handicappers I do not simply award 3 to 4 points and let it go at that. HCA is as variable as almost all other stats we employ, depending on the circumstances leading up to the home game and who the visitor is, what they have been doing, extent of their trip, etc.Very unusual tonight is that I would expect to see a very slim home court advantage versus a very worthy opponent, but all the factors combined allow me to award the Bucks a 4.2 point home court advantage. That is about as high as it gets and is matched tonight only by Boston hosting Indiana. 2.The other reason is defense. All experienced handicappers and players know that come playoff time the run and gun no defense teams will not be there or quickly eliminated. When the best play the best, or in this case the hottest play the hottest, defense is usually the deciding factor, and right now, on this given day, which is the only one we care about, the Bucks are playing the best defense in the league. Over the course of their last 10 games they have held opponents to 85.3 ppg, while the league average has risen to 100.38 ppg in regulation time. That gives the Bucks an 11.6 ppg average margin over their opponents and although hot, the Jazz have averaged only an 8.4 ppg margin. That margin becomes more significant as utilized in my probability ratings and the final tally looks like Bucks 98, Jazz 89, for a Bucks win with a solid under. BOL, Key. :)
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    haha, guys. sorry mike that total should be 185
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Dragonswirl, you are reading correctly except that Minnesota at +7 would be the play. According to my line they need only 1.5

    I have 3 other plays today and they are in line with what you see in my numbers, but I am not giving away the house. Your choices are yours.
  • DragonswirlDragonswirl Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    KeyElement wrote:
    Dragonswirl, you are reading correctly except that Minnesota at +7 would be the play. According to my line they need only 1.5

    I have 3 other plays today and they are in line with what you see in my numbers, but I am not giving away the house. Your choices are yours.

    Doh. Like Washington yesterday. I do backward thinking very well...haven't yet mastered reverse backward thinking.

    Thanks again,
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    Another brain fart. Obviously it is BUCKS -1
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    thx, luvin myyy milwaukeeeee bucksssss!
  • ChaseGChaseG Banned
    edited March 2010
    Timberwolves are a strong play tonight?
  • KeyElementKeyElement Banned
    edited March 2010
    decent play at the least, Chase, you love your favorites too much, imo
  • MikeNyceMikeNyce Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Yeah I like the under 3rd road game in a row for Utah and the past 2 have gone over the total. Looking for Utah to score somewhere in the 80's tonight GL
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Ex's voted again:

    Must you have a brain to have a brainfart?

    Yes 5
    No 2

    Done good my man - not a stroke!!!

    Milw - 1
    Pacers + 9 1/2

    Best
  • xlcfxlcf Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Thanks KeyElement. I will try a parlain this time :)
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    Key you are an NBA guru... do you dabble in college hoops at all? we could use a capper like yourself helping out with the ncaa games... thanks bro!
  • calzonesayscalzonesays Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    key is in a service unfortunately :/

    miss the days of the machinegun + calzone + rayj + keyelement combo on NBA here...
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited March 2010
    you had a hell of a day too cal... good to have ya back consistently!
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