Key's NBA Line, 3-9-10
KeyElement
Banned
Let me explain something that may clear up a little misunderstanding. The lines I generate, as stated before, are intended to point me in the right direction. If the computer generated number is 10 points off the posted line, I don't really care, nor does it make diddly squat of a difference. The only thing important is that the number send me toward the lines that are only one point off, because that is the only margin that will matter when we tally up. Does a computer generated line need to be -4 or -6 if the posted line is -5 to have validity? Heck no, because it only needs to be correct by one. If the number is radically off the posted line, go find out why. That is how it works. The number itself is not as important as the direction it sends me for further examination and analysis. Let's go!
Washington, +1, 202.5
Orlando, -13.5, 199
Indiana, -4, 214.5
Charlotte, PK, 184.5
Milwaukee, -7, 183.5
Portland, -10, 198
LA Lakers -9.5, 205.5
Even the Sagarin Predictor comes up with the Bucks -0.21, and some fool with too much disposable income actually popped the Celtics at Bookmaker to make them a 1 point favorite, but whacko!, the smart(er) money popped right back and got the line back to -1, where it opened, and it is on the rise elsewhere, -1.5 and climbing. The Celtics have been a bad investment all season. Even at a 20-4 SU start they were only 11-13 ATS. If that does not explain the term 'overvalued' by all means please explain to me what does. It doesn't really get any better as the season progresses. Burning money for their backers. 40-21 SU and 24-36 ATS? 12-8 SU and 7-12 ATS? 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS? Season, last 20 and last 10 do not say overvalued? Does not 33-29 and 41-21, 15-7 and 12-3, 9-1 and 9-0 spell undervalued? Look at that. One loss in their last 10 games and the Bucks even managed an ATS push in that one. Backing the Celtics right now is akin to the old Blackjack strategy, "double up after a loss, the streak has to end." Sure fire path to bankruptcy.
Momentum is only a temporary thing and binomial distribution says it has to end, which it will, but there is no evidence it will end today. There were those willing to back the Celtics against the Wizards Sunday, believing they would bounce back hot after the embarrassing loss to the Nets. They didn't do it because they are not as good as the perception of them. And that is all it is, perception.
I measure momentum per last 10 games played and there is no comparison. The Celtics are staggering along at 97.3 ppg and a winning margin of 3 points per game while the Bucks are scoring virtually the same at 97.4, but are winning by 12 ppg, an extremely high margin that also shows us why they are 7-3 to the under. Outstanding defense and they aren't even favored by home court advantage? Let's cover strength of schedule. Celtics are currently 5-5 straight up versus a 97.6 power ranking schedule with 5 home and 5 away. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 10 on the road and current strength of schedule is 100.1. Now we have better results versus a stronger schedule and they aren't even favored at home? Pardon me?
Washington, +1, 202.5
Orlando, -13.5, 199
Indiana, -4, 214.5
Charlotte, PK, 184.5
Milwaukee, -7, 183.5
Portland, -10, 198
LA Lakers -9.5, 205.5
Even the Sagarin Predictor comes up with the Bucks -0.21, and some fool with too much disposable income actually popped the Celtics at Bookmaker to make them a 1 point favorite, but whacko!, the smart(er) money popped right back and got the line back to -1, where it opened, and it is on the rise elsewhere, -1.5 and climbing. The Celtics have been a bad investment all season. Even at a 20-4 SU start they were only 11-13 ATS. If that does not explain the term 'overvalued' by all means please explain to me what does. It doesn't really get any better as the season progresses. Burning money for their backers. 40-21 SU and 24-36 ATS? 12-8 SU and 7-12 ATS? 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS? Season, last 20 and last 10 do not say overvalued? Does not 33-29 and 41-21, 15-7 and 12-3, 9-1 and 9-0 spell undervalued? Look at that. One loss in their last 10 games and the Bucks even managed an ATS push in that one. Backing the Celtics right now is akin to the old Blackjack strategy, "double up after a loss, the streak has to end." Sure fire path to bankruptcy.
Momentum is only a temporary thing and binomial distribution says it has to end, which it will, but there is no evidence it will end today. There were those willing to back the Celtics against the Wizards Sunday, believing they would bounce back hot after the embarrassing loss to the Nets. They didn't do it because they are not as good as the perception of them. And that is all it is, perception.
I measure momentum per last 10 games played and there is no comparison. The Celtics are staggering along at 97.3 ppg and a winning margin of 3 points per game while the Bucks are scoring virtually the same at 97.4, but are winning by 12 ppg, an extremely high margin that also shows us why they are 7-3 to the under. Outstanding defense and they aren't even favored by home court advantage? Let's cover strength of schedule. Celtics are currently 5-5 straight up versus a 97.6 power ranking schedule with 5 home and 5 away. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 10 on the road and current strength of schedule is 100.1. Now we have better results versus a stronger schedule and they aren't even favored at home? Pardon me?
Comments
Just reading your thread here..do you have a posted record on your methodoligy? Or what are your results of this procedure you use?..thnx for any info provided
Just want to say thanks for taking the time to post your generated computer lines.
And good job on the last few days.
As I recall last season these numbers came out strong in the beginning and results for the side plays finished very good.
And around this time last season your OAD best bets was hitting around 60% I can see you can only get better...
I totally agree with you on the public perception especially in the NBA.
Good luck and much success in the future.
I think the play is Milwaukee now -1.5 on 5 dimes. I think Key's numbers say it should be Milwaukee -7.
Regards,
Mil -? (should be -1.5) is the play. The -7 is my computer generated line. Everything else should be considered the way my computer leans on the other sides and totals. Guess I need to be a little clearer on that. BOL. Thanks for asking. Anyone that is confused should.
Key,
Does your computer give classes to other computers on HOW to do this stuff? I had a discussion with my laptop, and it is quite interested in learning. ;-)
Regards,
Key frisky?
0 Yes votes
6 No Votes
1 Swinger Vote
And you thought that I wouldn't tell
By the way,
GO BUCKS