Key's NBA Line, Monday, 3-8-10
KeyElement
Banned
Cleveland, -5.5, 199
NY Knicks, +6.5, 211
Memphis, -5.5, 194
Minnesota, +6, 204
New Orleans, -4, 213
Obviously the line is perfect because A) Sagarin calls it -4.81 and then
you allow for Ronny Turiaf being out and you are up to 7 and C) the big money has not punched a ticket on this game. Ooops! Pardon me, it just dropped a half to 6.5. Better hurry or the value will be gone.
Computations based on A) the entire season the last 20 (weighted) and C) last 10 (weighted) give me above average probability of the Warriors covering a spread, while (by the same formula) the Hornets stand only a 50.5% chance of even winning the game, much less clearing 7 (oops 6.5) points in the process. The problem with bettors is the same as with Boston yesterday. The bettors are willing to follow the Hornets (Celtics) to the gallows no matter how poorly they themselves are playing, believing (even after 5 months of contrary evidence) that the Warriors are a terrible team that stands no chance of beating anyone. A 17-45 SU record says they are terrible, so the only way the books can balance the books is by throwing points at them. Well like Barnum said, you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time. Some of those that are not fooled have cashed on the Warriors sterling 34-27 ATS record.
There is a very good reason why these things happen. The Warriors have been banged up and playing with 8 and 9 healthy players all year, some called in on emergency status, even guys from the D League, sometimes giving a look to anyone over six feet tall with a reasonably healthy looking body. Virtually, it has been that bad.
So, if it is virtually that bad, why isn't it literally that bad? This is good ground to cover and you may wish to make notes, at least mentally if not in your computer or notebook. The NBA has, literally, the largest talent pool in all of professional sports to draw from. The NFL is basically an American talent pool, with heavy restrictions on size and weight. MLB has a game played and developed all over the world, without severe restraints on size or weight, but played mostly in temperate climates. The NHL has the opposite problem in that very few people in temperate climates play or develop in the game and that is where most of the world's population is. Basketball? World wide popularity, simple and cheap to play. Like Red Auerbach said "only 5 guys, the ball is round and the floor is smooth, no problem". So basically the most widely played team sport in the world has to supply only 450 of its very best to fill the NBA rosters, far and away the most lopsided proportion of talent to any major professional sport.
What does that mean? It means that not one single player is there unless he earned it. His talents and possible contributions are not to be undervalued at any time. Playing with a patchwork lineup at Atlanta Friday night, they put up 122 points (at +13) and lost by only 5 points, in a third game in four nights situation, suiting up only 9 players and using only 8 of them.
Consider this aspect. Some of the Warriors players did not expect to get a chance this year, must less the chance to play extended minutes on a consistent basis. They fight hard every single game to either stick with the Warriors or look attractive to some other team. Next time you are tempted to tink of "lazy" professional athletes, think of the Warriors as the counterbalance.
JMHO, Good luck.
NY Knicks, +6.5, 211
Memphis, -5.5, 194
Minnesota, +6, 204
New Orleans, -4, 213
Obviously the line is perfect because A) Sagarin calls it -4.81 and then
you allow for Ronny Turiaf being out and you are up to 7 and C) the big money has not punched a ticket on this game. Ooops! Pardon me, it just dropped a half to 6.5. Better hurry or the value will be gone.Computations based on A) the entire season
the last 20 (weighted) and C) last 10 (weighted) give me above average probability of the Warriors covering a spread, while (by the same formula) the Hornets stand only a 50.5% chance of even winning the game, much less clearing 7 (oops 6.5) points in the process. The problem with bettors is the same as with Boston yesterday. The bettors are willing to follow the Hornets (Celtics) to the gallows no matter how poorly they themselves are playing, believing (even after 5 months of contrary evidence) that the Warriors are a terrible team that stands no chance of beating anyone. A 17-45 SU record says they are terrible, so the only way the books can balance the books is by throwing points at them. Well like Barnum said, you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all of the time. Some of those that are not fooled have cashed on the Warriors sterling 34-27 ATS record.There is a very good reason why these things happen. The Warriors have been banged up and playing with 8 and 9 healthy players all year, some called in on emergency status, even guys from the D League, sometimes giving a look to anyone over six feet tall with a reasonably healthy looking body. Virtually, it has been that bad.
So, if it is virtually that bad, why isn't it literally that bad? This is good ground to cover and you may wish to make notes, at least mentally if not in your computer or notebook. The NBA has, literally, the largest talent pool in all of professional sports to draw from. The NFL is basically an American talent pool, with heavy restrictions on size and weight. MLB has a game played and developed all over the world, without severe restraints on size or weight, but played mostly in temperate climates. The NHL has the opposite problem in that very few people in temperate climates play or develop in the game and that is where most of the world's population is. Basketball? World wide popularity, simple and cheap to play. Like Red Auerbach said "only 5 guys, the ball is round and the floor is smooth, no problem". So basically the most widely played team sport in the world has to supply only 450 of its very best to fill the NBA rosters, far and away the most lopsided proportion of talent to any major professional sport.
What does that mean? It means that not one single player is there unless he earned it. His talents and possible contributions are not to be undervalued at any time. Playing with a patchwork lineup at Atlanta Friday night, they put up 122 points (at +13) and lost by only 5 points, in a third game in four nights situation, suiting up only 9 players and using only 8 of them.
Consider this aspect. Some of the Warriors players did not expect to get a chance this year, must less the chance to play extended minutes on a consistent basis. They fight hard every single game to either stick with the Warriors or look attractive to some other team. Next time you are tempted to tink of "lazy" professional athletes, think of the Warriors as the counterbalance.
JMHO, Good luck.
Comments
Spurs-Cavaliers OVER 192.5
When I capped this game the pure number was 193.5, but without Parker I landed on 199 because Parker does not effect the Spurs offense nearly as much as their defense. In the 10 games he has missed the Spurs have been OK at 5-5 SU, +0.4 ppg but only 3-7 ATS because the opponent scoring rises to 102 ppg versus 97.5 with Parker at the point. Opinions are divided on this as the first moves were up, as high as 195 (loss of value), but someone whacked the under and drove it back down (significant gain in value). If you like it, better get it now as the money is coming in again on the over.
can't really endorse either side of that game at the moment though
Maybe they are. In general, the public doesn't move large market lines, especially on random NBA games.
stand at new orlean -6
wow wow
Just because you got NO -4, don't let it go to your head...you only missed the total by 53 ;-)
Regards,