I give you more intellectual chops than you're displaying here, given how late you appear to be to this party.
The continued attrition of 45-54-year-olds in the workforce is cause for concern by itself, but with the other deflationary factors at work in the US economy, alarm bells ought to be ringing in Washington DC.
Ah, but you see, you can't run trillion dollar deficits when the cost of borrowing the trillion dollars is 5% a year. That would be $50 billion per trillion, no? And we have how many outstanding right now? $12 and change marketable, right? Uh, yeah, we could shoulder $600 billion+ in interest payment annually, right, roughly double what it was five or so years ago -- right?
Well, no. At least not without massive cuts to other spending programs. That $600 billion would have to come out of either spending or higher taxes (probably both.)
So if you want to point fingers, don't point them at The Fed. Point them at Congress, which has in fact said in plain language during Bernanke's testimony that they're children who are incapable of policing their own spending so long as rates remain at zero, basically telling him to cut that crap out or Congress will continue to have an orgy.
Well let's see, who enables The Fed? Who passed The Federal Reserve Act? Who could modify -- or revoke -- it? Why that would be Congress, right?
Hmmmm....
The trouble is, however, that “hot” policy like what the FOMC thinks it is pursuing is actually encouraging deflation in the US economy by robbing savers of badly needed income – this to the tune of about $100 billion per quarter just in terms of the return on US bank deposits. While low rates were helpful and entirely necessary early in the post-crisis response, today low rates are arguably a net negative for the US economy.
Well, yeah. But exactly when did you change your mind Chris?
I mean, let's be frank here -- you seem to be a bit late to this party.
There's a few of us, like myself, who rather-quickly changed our minds on the "inflationary" impact of Fed rate-cuts when the data didn't support the thesis. That would be around 2008 for me. If you go back and read some of my work both earlier and through that time, you can easily see it.
Heh, when the facts change you can either change your opinion or evenutally the truth will smack you upside the head. What I recognized very early on was that ZIRP and QE couldn't work because they were nothing more than a cost-shift.
See, lending is a balance-sheet game. What you save on your payment I don't get in my interest coupon. Therefore any gain is by definition nothing more than a transfer.
So why does it look good at the outset?
That's simple -- duration match. The typical loan-maker (that is, the person who buys bonds or their products) doesn't buy one loan. He buys a lot of loans, in the form of bonds, and he intentionally layers those bonds so as to meet his duration needs.
So if you "QE" or "ZIRP" and Joe over here is one of those lenders, holding a 10 year maturity portfolio, in the first year he only sees 10% of the decrease in interest expense that you get immediately.
In other words your interest expense goes from $10 to $5, let's say, or a 50% decrease.
Joe, because he has a 10 year maturity, sees his interest income go from $100 to $95, a 5% decrease.
This looks like a free lunch.
But it's not, and I'm sure you know why. Joe is stuck with the $5 less in interest income for the next 10 years, and each year that QE or ZIRP (or both) continue he sees an additional $5 decrease in his interest income as his portfolio rolls until his interest income is $50 instead of $100.
Worse, when you stop ZIRP or QE the impact continues on Joe for 9 more years as it rolls off exactly the same way it went on! That is, the first year it's $55, then $60 and so on.
So exactly how do you propose to "fix" that?
You can't because if you sell the bond early you take a capital loss on the imputed value change. That's the point of a bond -- X% interest to borrow $Y for duration Z.
You can only accept that you fucked up advocating for it in the first place, along with everyone else.
I would like to thank all the people that give recommendations in this thread. Just to name a couple Reb, Wraps and many others who know the market better then me I missed a lot of people typing this from my phone so I apologize and also appreciate your insight. I've learned a great deal since this thread started. I knew the market and have done well with in and out usually don't stay longer then 4-6 weeks of course it depends but that's the usual time frame
Anyway I cashed out some very nice money a few days ago on MNKD GALE plus 2 others in the 28 days i owned them and bought a nice amount of THLD @4.84 And I although I'm not at your level I think this stock has some real upside but I dont stay long on theses types of stocks if I hit 7.00 I'm gone but I think the potential is there for low DD's hopefully I can contribute a little something here and as always I use stops. So again let's keep this thread going and thanks for everyone's input.
But sometimes you guys talk and I have to hire an interpreter lol I'm pretty much Long and occasionally some short. Let me know what you think but thanks again for sharing and being open and honest with your analysis.
Here's the link to a plain language article on a little oil company I recommended a while back-- ATXDY. I think this is headed to $10 in the near future-- and at least $20 within the next 18 months.
Here's the link to a plain language article on a little oil company I recommended a while back-- ATXDY. I think this is headed to $10 in the near future-- and at least $20 within the next 18 months.
Funny you mention ONVO, I picked up 2k shares today (spec play) as you mentioned, they are doing a deal with Autodesk on the printing end Had it on my radar and decided to partake today.
Want to know why? Because pumping liquidity no matter how you do it and where you do it decreases the income of the guy on the lending side as it decreases the payment on the borrowing side.
The reason it doesn't immediately become apparent is, as I've repeatedly pointed out, duration matching among bond holders.
So as you start cranking up "liquidity" and lowering price, and people increase their margin exposure, leaving little or no remaining margin available, what happens when something goes wrong and the real price is revealed to not be worth the alleged value you margined against?
TheReb & Dubbs, You still own ONVO? What do you make of the sell off today?
From my post #276 in this thread...
Not sure who still owns ONVO....but for those that have followed I just sold mine today, it has had a helluva a run (currently in the mid 11's) which may continue but having bought in the 2's felt it was time to take the chips off the table....I still love their technology and will look to re enter on any pullbacks. I also have liquidated my OPK position as well...again after a huge run decided to take the chips off the table...that pretty much leaves me with all the chips in MNKD....still believe this one is a steal for anyone looking for a +EV situation...they filed their NDA (new drug application) with the FDA after their successful phase III trial results. The responses from some of the participants in the trials were overwhelmingly positive and with the current market for Diabetes growing at an alarming rate, this still has huge game changing blockbuster potential IMO FWIW. Best -R
In line with the above, I still hold my largest position in MNKD, have been accumulating on pullbacks....and fwiw have started building a position in AGEN, along with NBS. The pullback in the broader indices has been long overdue and I expect it to continue (see underwraps posts for structural issues underlying the market). Also, for those that have been in the biotech arena, although I continue to like certain individual companies the XBI index which has been one of the strongest sectors showed a possible "exhaustion gap move" which could be getting confirmed here in the next week or two...what this entails is when something has had a long term trend, towards the end of it sometimes there is a last big run or what can be deemed as a "blow off top" and it bears watching over the next week or two. As far as MNKD is concerned, there is a tentative ADCOM (FDA advisory panel meeting scheduled for 4/1) which is two weeks prior to their PDUFA date (when the FDA is suppose to rule on whether or not to approve Afrezza - MNKD's treatment for Type 1 and/or Type 2 diabetes). The consensus is that it should get approved this go around, so as always, buy at your own tolerance for risk.
. The pullback in the broader indices has been long overdue and I expect it to continue (see underwraps posts for structural issues underlying the market). Also, for those that have been in the biotech arena, although I continue to like certain individual companies the XBI index which has been one of the strongest sectors showed a possible "exhaustion gap move" which could be getting confirmed here in the next week or two...what this entails is when something has had a long term trend, towards the end of it sometimes there is a last big run or what can be deemed as a "blow off top" and it bears watching over the next week or two. As far as MNKD is concerned, there is a tentative ADCOM (FDA advisory panel meeting scheduled for 4/1) which is two weeks prior to their PDUFA date (when the FDA is suppose to rule on whether or not to approve Afrezza - MNKD's treatment for Type 1 and/or Type 2 diabetes). The consensus is that it should get approved this go around, so as always, buy at your own tolerance for risk.
Well, right on cue as the XBI has filled the first gap and is currently sitting at 144, next objective is the 135.58 mark which is where it had its original exhaustion gap up...as far as the broader market first support level was touched and has held in the 1770-1775 area for the S&P, this should provide a bit of temporary support for the first oversold leg of this correction...when that support level is broken, next downside objective would be 1709....as far as MNKD is concerned, forced sales have brought it down to the 5.20 area which for those that missed the last run up would be an excellent entry area IMO (could see a few pennies lower but if you're going longer term anywhere in this area would be a where I would buy) .....having said all that, still wondering how my Rebs played AZ. on their homecourt as tough as they did
Let's cut the crap -- using "executive orders" as a means of changing law are outrageously improper. They're so outrageously improper that anyone doing it ought to face immediate impeachment.
Worse, they're a self-declaration that the person doing it as not a President but a factual tyrant.
But does all of this matter when you get down to it?
No.
The fact is that we have President Swindle, not President Obama.
How many swindles would you like me to list?
Health care.
Energy.
Education.
Banking reform.
Felonies committed left, right and center - by the government.
Yet we continue, as a nation and a people, to sit for it.
This should certainly settle the Turkish currency problem, but Holy Mother of God.
The immediate reaction was a spike higher in the futures (by a fair bit too!) but anyone who thinks this sort of outrageous interventionary move isn't going to bankrupt plenty of people...... well.....
Eric Ferguson, 54, from Mooresville, N.C., was taking out the trash at his home last August when he was bitten on the foot by a snake. He drove himself to Lake Norman Regional Medical Center, where he was treated with anti-venom medicine.
According to his bill, the hospital charged $81,000 for a four-vial dose of the medication.
Shocked at the price tag, Ferguson told the Charlotte Observer he and his wife found the same vials online for retail prices as low as $750.
If you destroy the medical monopolies let's assume whoever Ferguson gets the vials from charges $1,500 due to his urgency of need, a 100% mark-up.
His cost would drop by 98.2%.
Anyone else want to argue that we couldn't take 80% out of our medical spending if we cut this shit out and started imprisoning the so-called "health care providers" that do this kind of thing?
But for government-sanctioned force nobody -- absolutely nobody -- would get away with charging 50 times or more what something costs without someone else immediately entering the market and competing with them.
You think it's limited to this sort of thing? Nope. What's a hospital charge for a basic and every-day use scalpel? I can buy 10 in a box, sterile and disposable, for under a buck a piece, and the seller is making a profit at that price (or they wouldn't be selling them.)
The people who are apologists for this crap, along with the practitioners and administrators, in any just society, would be sitting in federal prison right now as this behavior is a rank violation of the Sherman and Clayton acts, and absent their "special dispensation" they'd all have long since been prosecuted and convicted.
NEW YORK – A Chinese lender that had threatened to default on a $500 million trust product has arranged for repayment to investors, easing concerns about China's shadow-banking sector that added to investor fears of emerging-markets, according to news reports Monday that cited a statement from the lender.
Arranged eh?
Uh, who arranged it? And who's making good on the obligation that isn't good?
That's a problem, you see, because it's far worse to bail people out if you don't identify where it came from.
As I noted at the time the amount of money in that particular issue wasn't very large.
I also said this:
Yes, I expect China will try to cover this one up.
Uh huh.
Who's funding the bailout?
Get away from the markets folks. This is how it started in 2000 -- and 2008 -- as well.
Little things that were, on a dollars basis, not all that important. It was not the amount of money that mattered, it was the lack of transparency and the fact that everything was being hidden to avoid anyone having to answer for what they had done.
Eventually someone sticks up their and and calls smiley.
I don't know when that will happen this time around, but what I do know is that when people start hiding defaults and providing "bailouts" without any identifiable source of funding it's time to get nervous.
NEW YORK A Chinese lender that had threatened to default on a $500 million trust product has arranged for repayment to investors, easing concerns about China's shadow-banking sector that added to investor fears of emerging-markets, according to news reports Monday that cited a statement from the lender.
Arranged eh?
Uh, who arranged it? And who's making good on the obligation that isn't good?
That's a problem, you see, because it's far worse to bail people out if you don't identify where it came from.
As I noted at the time the amount of money in that particular issue wasn't very large.
I also said this:
Yes, I expect China will try to cover this one up.
Uh huh.
Who's funding the bailout?
Get away from the markets folks. This is how it started in 2000 -- and 2008 -- as well.
Little things that were, on a dollars basis, not all that important. It was not the amount of money that mattered, it was the lack of transparency and the fact that everything was being hidden to avoid anyone having to answer for what they had done.
Eventually someone sticks up their and and calls smiley.
I don't know when that will happen this time around, but what I do know is that when people start hiding defaults and providing "bailouts" without any identifiable source of funding it's time to get nervous.
Wraps. lets face it.... it's out of control, I gave up....the ignorant masses continue to flock like lemmings to the whoever wants to continue to kick the can down the road rather than try and address the fundamental problems that continue to fester underneath the surface...I'm sympathetic to the frustration you hear in Santelli's rants, like him you can try and wake people up to your blue in the face but they don't want to hear what they don't want to hear and continue to live in denial...I never watched the Pat Tillman Story until recently...if you never saw it, it's an unbelievable documentary of the sequence of events that took place regarding the cover up of what happened....absolutely pathetic what the DOD did. Really don't want to turn this thread into a political one but you did hit some sore spots ;-)
Hey Reb, my buddy wanted me to start dabbling in the stock market (made him a few bucks in sports this year) so I obliged and put a few grand into etrade. I've been reading through these pages and it sounds like you've got a good grasp on this thing.
At this point, you wouldn't suggest buying ONVO? I liked what I saw in the little research I did and there's a little homer in me because the company is in San Diego. But you don't think it has potential to get to $20 in the long run?
Filtering through your in-depth writeups it sounds like you would suggest getting on MNKD, AGEN and NBS currently? Do you like one more than the others? Do you see one being a better short-term investment than another?
Sorry for the need for layman explanation, I am 100 percent a rookie in this market. And I am well aware that this is a risky business, akin to the sports wagering world we all love and know. Thanks for the help.
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Yeah, right. The unemployment rate declined but the employment rate of the population has not moved a bit upward since 2009. So there's no news here.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
Uh, except that core inflation is rising. Even given the outrageous distortions in that calculation we should be straight up to 2% by the middle of the year, if not above it. We'll see.
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in February, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
There's your taper.
The reality is this: The taper is not about economic conditions. It is about the fact that there is no long-term benefit from these sorts of actions, as the "benefit" in the short term is exactly balanced by the total cost over time. All you're doing is front-loading the so-called "change" while spreading out the damage, and your prayer is that economic expansion "swallows" that cost before anyone figures it out.
The odds of that happening have now trended sufficiently close to zero that there is no longer an argument for attempting to continue the charade.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
Horseshit, both in terms of their alleged "triggers" and the reason for the taper itself. The talking heads are all missing the reason the taper is taking place and as I write this I'm hearing people spewing utter and complete crap.
Nobody wants to look at the balance sheet issues.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Blah blah.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
Hey Reb, my buddy wanted me to start dabbling in the stock market (made him a few bucks in sports this year) so I obliged and put a few grand into etrade. I've been reading through these pages and it sounds like you've got a good grasp on this thing.
At this point, you wouldn't suggest buying ONVO? I liked what I saw in the little research I did and there's a little homer in me because the company is in San Diego. But you don't think it has potential to get to $20 in the long run?
Filtering through your in-depth writeups it sounds like you would suggest getting on MNKD, AGEN and NBS currently? Do you like one more than the others? Do you see one being a better short-term investment than another?
Sorry for the need for layman explanation, I am 100 percent a rookie in this market. And I am well aware that this is a risky business, akin to the sports wagering world we all love and know. Thanks for the help.
Cools, first and foremost, just like a bet in sports don't put anything into this that you can afford to lose 100% of initial investment. Having said that, they are all in the biotech arena as you know and each one of the four is in a separate area. ONVO is 3D technology on live cell printing AGEN is primarily into enhancing cancer therapy among other things like malaria...NBS is into stem cell technology...MNKD is waiting on FDA approval for its break through treatment for Diabetes and at the same time its delivery system for it...the last item could be worth quite a bit as it is an inhaler technology which in the future can be used for other medications. Of the four, I am most heavily risked in MNKD currently and believe this will have the most immediate (within 90 days) potential to reach up to a 100% gain. The biggest threat to them is political IMO and from what their results have been (stellar IMO) cannot see how the FDA would be able to not give the green light this go around. Keep in mind again, as in sports, a bad beat is always possible but this one has the most immediate potential as far as where I've put my money. GLTY going forward.
Btw, mnkd feb 6 calls at around 20 (70 implied vol) are not crazy expensive with earnings due out before expiration date
Sunningdale, I would not buy any calls that expire prior to the PDUFA date which is 4/15....I don't expect anything earth shattering from their earnings report, there is a possibility that their conference call on their earnings report has some statement/announcement but I wouldn't make a bet on it....the earliest calls I would purchase would be the May's JMHO...
Wraps - hospitals charged inordinate amounts to make sure they get the 20 or 30 cents on the dollar insurance companies pay. Plus they have to cover the freeloading fucks that will never pay. Government involvement will excaserbate the situation. Self pay much cheaper. And medical insurance is flawed from the start. Unlike car or home or flood insurance, user rate will be 100%. No sharing of risk when every one uses it. Name me another product or service that doesn't have a price prior to purchase.
Loaded up pot stocks the other day. Most about where I got em. But CANN and FSPM running like mofo's. Long term here. Holding for 7-10 years. Long.
Cools, first and foremost, just like a bet in sports don't put anything into this that you can afford to lose 100% of initial investment. Having said that, they are all in the biotech arena as you know and each one of the four is in a separate area. ONVO is 3D technology on live cell printing AGEN is primarily into enhancing cancer therapy among other things like malaria...NBS is into stem cell technology...MNKD is waiting on FDA approval for its break through treatment for Diabetes and at the same time its delivery system for it...the last item could be worth quite a bit as it is an inhaler technology which in the future can be used for other medications. Of the four, I am most heavily risked in MNKD currently and believe this will have the most immediate (within 90 days) potential to reach up to a 100% gain. The biggest threat to them is political IMO and from what their results have been (stellar IMO) cannot see how the FDA would be able to not give the green light this go around. Keep in mind again, as in sports, a bad beat is always possible but this one has the most immediate potential as far as where I've put my money. GLTY going forward.
Thanks Reb. I ran the three biotechs by my wife and she had heard of MannKind, but not the other two. She has her PhD in O-Chem and is currently a post doc at Scripps, working on neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimers and ALS, protein misfolding stuff. I asked her for some hot tips lol but she said all the companies she works with are small and don't sell stock yet. Thanks again and good luck to us.
Thanks Reb. I ran the three biotechs by my wife and she had heard of MannKind, but not the other two. She has her PhD in O-Chem and is currently a post doc at Scripps, working on neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimers and ALS, protein misfolding stuff. I asked her for some hot tips lol but she said all the companies she works with are small and don't sell stock yet. Thanks again and good luck to us.
Just an FYI, my sister was diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer's (non genetic) recently, I try and visit here once every couple of weeks...if there is anything new in development that your wife knows about my sister would be willing to volunteer for clinical trials....ironically her daughter (my niece) has juvenile type 1 diabetes and is what really got me into what Al Mann is doing with MNKD, she wears the minimed pump that he originally developed and sold to Medtronic...he also just won his patent lawsuit for the cochlear ear implant technology this past week...he is an amazing individual. GL going forward, hopefully we can have a decent celebration one of these days ;-)
Comments
I mean, c'mon Chris.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/01/12/Washington-Wall-Street-The-Yellen-FOMC-Embraces-Moral-Hazard
I give you more intellectual chops than you're displaying here, given how late you appear to be to this party.
Ah, but you see, you can't run trillion dollar deficits when the cost of borrowing the trillion dollars is 5% a year. That would be $50 billion per trillion, no? And we have how many outstanding right now? $12 and change marketable, right? Uh, yeah, we could shoulder $600 billion+ in interest payment annually, right, roughly double what it was five or so years ago -- right?
Well, no. At least not without massive cuts to other spending programs. That $600 billion would have to come out of either spending or higher taxes (probably both.)
So if you want to point fingers, don't point them at The Fed. Point them at Congress, which has in fact said in plain language during Bernanke's testimony that they're children who are incapable of policing their own spending so long as rates remain at zero, basically telling him to cut that crap out or Congress will continue to have an orgy.
Well let's see, who enables The Fed? Who passed The Federal Reserve Act? Who could modify -- or revoke -- it? Why that would be Congress, right?
Hmmmm....
Well, yeah. But exactly when did you change your mind Chris?
I mean, let's be frank here -- you seem to be a bit late to this party.
There's a few of us, like myself, who rather-quickly changed our minds on the "inflationary" impact of Fed rate-cuts when the data didn't support the thesis. That would be around 2008 for me. If you go back and read some of my work both earlier and through that time, you can easily see it.
Heh, when the facts change you can either change your opinion or evenutally the truth will smack you upside the head. What I recognized very early on was that ZIRP and QE couldn't work because they were nothing more than a cost-shift.
See, lending is a balance-sheet game. What you save on your payment I don't get in my interest coupon. Therefore any gain is by definition nothing more than a transfer.
So why does it look good at the outset?
That's simple -- duration match. The typical loan-maker (that is, the person who buys bonds or their products) doesn't buy one loan. He buys a lot of loans, in the form of bonds, and he intentionally layers those bonds so as to meet his duration needs.
So if you "QE" or "ZIRP" and Joe over here is one of those lenders, holding a 10 year maturity portfolio, in the first year he only sees 10% of the decrease in interest expense that you get immediately.
In other words your interest expense goes from $10 to $5, let's say, or a 50% decrease.
Joe, because he has a 10 year maturity, sees his interest income go from $100 to $95, a 5% decrease.
This looks like a free lunch.
But it's not, and I'm sure you know why. Joe is stuck with the $5 less in interest income for the next 10 years, and each year that QE or ZIRP (or both) continue he sees an additional $5 decrease in his interest income as his portfolio rolls until his interest income is $50 instead of $100.
Worse, when you stop ZIRP or QE the impact continues on Joe for 9 more years as it rolls off exactly the same way it went on! That is, the first year it's $55, then $60 and so on.
So exactly how do you propose to "fix" that?
You can't because if you sell the bond early you take a capital loss on the imputed value change. That's the point of a bond -- X% interest to borrow $Y for duration Z.
You can only accept that you fucked up advocating for it in the first place, along with everyone else.
Hell will freeze first, I'm sure.
Anyway I cashed out some very nice money a few days ago on MNKD GALE plus 2 others in the 28 days i owned them and bought a nice amount of THLD @4.84 And I although I'm not at your level I think this stock has some real upside but I dont stay long on theses types of stocks if I hit 7.00 I'm gone but I think the potential is there for low DD's hopefully I can contribute a little something here and as always I use stops. So again let's keep this thread going and thanks for everyone's input.
But sometimes you guys talk and I have to hire an interpreter lol I'm pretty much Long and occasionally some short. Let me know what you think but thanks again for sharing and being open and honest with your analysis.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1959161-seeking-alpha-top-idea-explained-in-non-technical-language-austex-oil?source=yahoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1959161-seeking-alpha-top-idea-explained-in-non-technical-language-austex-oil?source=yahoo
Sorry about the double post-- my internet has been screwy lately--
TheReb & Dubbs, You still own ONVO? What do you make of the sell off today?
XNCR
Also waiting for a pullback on STML looking to get in around Mid 20's drop lower. I believe it has very good upside what do you think.
Cannon balls and fairy dust LOL
[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000239038[/video]
At least for a while, everything that they're building on can work.
Yeah. For a while.
Want to know why? Because pumping liquidity no matter how you do it and where you do it decreases the income of the guy on the lending side as it decreases the payment on the borrowing side.
The reason it doesn't immediately become apparent is, as I've repeatedly pointed out, duration matching among bond holders.
So as you start cranking up "liquidity" and lowering price, and people increase their margin exposure, leaving little or no remaining margin available, what happens when something goes wrong and the real price is revealed to not be worth the alleged value you margined against?
From my post #276 in this thread...
Not sure who still owns ONVO....but for those that have followed I just sold mine today, it has had a helluva a run (currently in the mid 11's) which may continue but having bought in the 2's felt it was time to take the chips off the table....I still love their technology and will look to re enter on any pullbacks. I also have liquidated my OPK position as well...again after a huge run decided to take the chips off the table...that pretty much leaves me with all the chips in MNKD....still believe this one is a steal for anyone looking for a +EV situation...they filed their NDA (new drug application) with the FDA after their successful phase III trial results. The responses from some of the participants in the trials were overwhelmingly positive and with the current market for Diabetes growing at an alarming rate, this still has huge game changing blockbuster potential IMO FWIW. Best -R
In line with the above, I still hold my largest position in MNKD, have been accumulating on pullbacks....and fwiw have started building a position in AGEN, along with NBS. The pullback in the broader indices has been long overdue and I expect it to continue (see underwraps posts for structural issues underlying the market). Also, for those that have been in the biotech arena, although I continue to like certain individual companies the XBI index which has been one of the strongest sectors showed a possible "exhaustion gap move" which could be getting confirmed here in the next week or two...what this entails is when something has had a long term trend, towards the end of it sometimes there is a last big run or what can be deemed as a "blow off top" and it bears watching over the next week or two. As far as MNKD is concerned, there is a tentative ADCOM (FDA advisory panel meeting scheduled for 4/1) which is two weeks prior to their PDUFA date (when the FDA is suppose to rule on whether or not to approve Afrezza - MNKD's treatment for Type 1 and/or Type 2 diabetes). The consensus is that it should get approved this go around, so as always, buy at your own tolerance for risk.
Well, right on cue as the XBI has filled the first gap and is currently sitting at 144, next objective is the 135.58 mark which is where it had its original exhaustion gap up...as far as the broader market first support level was touched and has held in the 1770-1775 area for the S&P, this should provide a bit of temporary support for the first oversold leg of this correction...when that support level is broken, next downside objective would be 1709....as far as MNKD is concerned, forced sales have brought it down to the 5.20 area which for those that missed the last run up would be an excellent entry area IMO (could see a few pennies lower but if you're going longer term anywhere in this area would be a where I would buy) .....having said all that, still wondering how my Rebs played AZ. on their homecourt as tough as they did
It's time, I suspect.
What time?
Time to drink on the State of the Union.
Let's cut the crap -- using "executive orders" as a means of changing law are outrageously improper. They're so outrageously improper that anyone doing it ought to face immediate impeachment.
Worse, they're a self-declaration that the person doing it as not a President but a factual tyrant.
But does all of this matter when you get down to it?
No.
The fact is that we have President Swindle, not President Obama.
How many swindles would you like me to list?
Health care.
Energy.
Education.
Banking reform.
Felonies committed left, right and center - by the government.
Yet we continue, as a nation and a people, to sit for it.
It's definitely time to drink.
Turkey's central bank has raised rates to 12%
This should certainly settle the Turkish currency problem, but Holy Mother of God.
The immediate reaction was a spike higher in the futures (by a fair bit too!) but anyone who thinks this sort of outrageous interventionary move isn't going to bankrupt plenty of people...... well.....
And again...
Eric Ferguson, 54, from Mooresville, N.C., was taking out the trash at his home last August when he was bitten on the foot by a snake. He drove himself to Lake Norman Regional Medical Center, where he was treated with anti-venom medicine.
According to his bill, the hospital charged $81,000 for a four-vial dose of the medication.
Shocked at the price tag, Ferguson told the Charlotte Observer he and his wife found the same vials online for retail prices as low as $750.
If you destroy the medical monopolies let's assume whoever Ferguson gets the vials from charges $1,500 due to his urgency of need, a 100% mark-up.
His cost would drop by 98.2%.
Anyone else want to argue that we couldn't take 80% out of our medical spending if we cut this shit out and started imprisoning the so-called "health care providers" that do this kind of thing?
But for government-sanctioned force nobody -- absolutely nobody -- would get away with charging 50 times or more what something costs without someone else immediately entering the market and competing with them.
You think it's limited to this sort of thing? Nope. What's a hospital charge for a basic and every-day use scalpel? I can buy 10 in a box, sterile and disposable, for under a buck a piece, and the seller is making a profit at that price (or they wouldn't be selling them.)
The people who are apologists for this crap, along with the practitioners and administrators, in any just society, would be sitting in federal prison right now as this behavior is a rank violation of the Sherman and Clayton acts, and absent their "special dispensation" they'd all have long since been prosecuted and convicted.
IMPRISON THEM ALL TODAY.
Hmmm...
NEW YORK – A Chinese lender that had threatened to default on a $500 million trust product has arranged for repayment to investors, easing concerns about China's shadow-banking sector that added to investor fears of emerging-markets, according to news reports Monday that cited a statement from the lender.
Arranged eh?
Uh, who arranged it? And who's making good on the obligation that isn't good?
That's a problem, you see, because it's far worse to bail people out if you don't identify where it came from.
As I noted at the time the amount of money in that particular issue wasn't very large.
I also said this:
Yes, I expect China will try to cover this one up.
Uh huh.
Who's funding the bailout?
Get away from the markets folks. This is how it started in 2000 -- and 2008 -- as well.
Little things that were, on a dollars basis, not all that important. It was not the amount of money that mattered, it was the lack of transparency and the fact that everything was being hidden to avoid anyone having to answer for what they had done.
Eventually someone sticks up their and and calls smiley.
I don't know when that will happen this time around, but what I do know is that when people start hiding defaults and providing "bailouts" without any identifiable source of funding it's time to get nervous.
Wraps. lets face it.... it's out of control, I gave up....the ignorant masses continue to flock like lemmings to the whoever wants to continue to kick the can down the road rather than try and address the fundamental problems that continue to fester underneath the surface...I'm sympathetic to the frustration you hear in Santelli's rants, like him you can try and wake people up to your blue in the face but they don't want to hear what they don't want to hear and continue to live in denial...I never watched the Pat Tillman Story until recently...if you never saw it, it's an unbelievable documentary of the sequence of events that took place regarding the cover up of what happened....absolutely pathetic what the DOD did. Really don't want to turn this thread into a political one but you did hit some sore spots ;-)
At this point, you wouldn't suggest buying ONVO? I liked what I saw in the little research I did and there's a little homer in me because the company is in San Diego. But you don't think it has potential to get to $20 in the long run?
Filtering through your in-depth writeups it sounds like you would suggest getting on MNKD, AGEN and NBS currently? Do you like one more than the others? Do you see one being a better short-term investment than another?
Sorry for the need for layman explanation, I am 100 percent a rookie in this market. And I am well aware that this is a risky business, akin to the sports wagering world we all love and know. Thanks for the help.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-29/nothing-lasts-forever-world-bank-chief-economist-calls-end-dollar-reserve-currency
http://www.indexq.org
From The Fed:
Release Date: January 29, 2014
For immediate release
Yeah, right. The unemployment rate declined but the employment rate of the population has not moved a bit upward since 2009. So there's no news here.
Uh, except that core inflation is rising. Even given the outrageous distortions in that calculation we should be straight up to 2% by the middle of the year, if not above it. We'll see.
There's your taper.
The reality is this: The taper is not about economic conditions. It is about the fact that there is no long-term benefit from these sorts of actions, as the "benefit" in the short term is exactly balanced by the total cost over time. All you're doing is front-loading the so-called "change" while spreading out the damage, and your prayer is that economic expansion "swallows" that cost before anyone figures it out.
The odds of that happening have now trended sufficiently close to zero that there is no longer an argument for attempting to continue the charade.
Horseshit, both in terms of their alleged "triggers" and the reason for the taper itself. The talking heads are all missing the reason the taper is taking place and as I write this I'm hearing people spewing utter and complete crap.
Nobody wants to look at the balance sheet issues.
Blah blah.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
Let's all jump off the bridge together!
Cools, first and foremost, just like a bet in sports don't put anything into this that you can afford to lose 100% of initial investment. Having said that, they are all in the biotech arena as you know and each one of the four is in a separate area. ONVO is 3D technology on live cell printing AGEN is primarily into enhancing cancer therapy among other things like malaria...NBS is into stem cell technology...MNKD is waiting on FDA approval for its break through treatment for Diabetes and at the same time its delivery system for it...the last item could be worth quite a bit as it is an inhaler technology which in the future can be used for other medications. Of the four, I am most heavily risked in MNKD currently and believe this will have the most immediate (within 90 days) potential to reach up to a 100% gain. The biggest threat to them is political IMO and from what their results have been (stellar IMO) cannot see how the FDA would be able to not give the green light this go around. Keep in mind again, as in sports, a bad beat is always possible but this one has the most immediate potential as far as where I've put my money. GLTY going forward.
Sunningdale, I would not buy any calls that expire prior to the PDUFA date which is 4/15....I don't expect anything earth shattering from their earnings report, there is a possibility that their conference call on their earnings report has some statement/announcement but I wouldn't make a bet on it....the earliest calls I would purchase would be the May's JMHO...
Loaded up pot stocks the other day. Most about where I got em. But CANN and FSPM running like mofo's. Long term here. Holding for 7-10 years. Long.
Thanks Reb. I ran the three biotechs by my wife and she had heard of MannKind, but not the other two. She has her PhD in O-Chem and is currently a post doc at Scripps, working on neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimers and ALS, protein misfolding stuff. I asked her for some hot tips lol but she said all the companies she works with are small and don't sell stock yet. Thanks again and good luck to us.
Just an FYI, my sister was diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer's (non genetic) recently, I try and visit here once every couple of weeks...if there is anything new in development that your wife knows about my sister would be willing to volunteer for clinical trials....ironically her daughter (my niece) has juvenile type 1 diabetes and is what really got me into what Al Mann is doing with MNKD, she wears the minimed pump that he originally developed and sold to Medtronic...he also just won his patent lawsuit for the cochlear ear implant technology this past week...he is an amazing individual. GL going forward, hopefully we can have a decent celebration one of these days ;-)