Dragon Shot's--Week 6
Dragonswirl
Senior Member
There was NO Week 5 plays, outside schedule precluded my access to computer most evenings.
Shot #6-1 (Level 1)
Part #1
1:45pm Switxerland Super league
FC Basel (-273) v. FC Luzern
FC Vaduz v. FC Zurich (-385)
2:00pm Germany Bundesliga
Bayern Munich (-385) v. Bayer Leverkusen
2 units to win 2.54 units
Really prefer the over in both Zurich & Munich games if it were 3 or less. At 3.5 goals, should/could happen, BUT...
Part #2
Will roll forward, if win to baseball tonight.
Regards,
Shot #6-1 (Level 1)
Part #1
1:45pm Switxerland Super league
FC Basel (-273) v. FC Luzern
FC Vaduz v. FC Zurich (-385)
2:00pm Germany Bundesliga
Bayern Munich (-385) v. Bayer Leverkusen
2 units to win 2.54 units
Really prefer the over in both Zurich & Munich games if it were 3 or less. At 3.5 goals, should/could happen, BUT...
Part #2
Will roll forward, if win to baseball tonight.
Regards,
Comments
Basel 2 - 0 Luzern (win)
Vaduz 3 - 5 Zurich (win)
Bayern Munich 3 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen (win)
Shot #6-1 (level 1)
Part 2:
7:05pm Chicago WS TT OVER 4.5 (-135)
7:10pm Atlanta/NY Mets UNDER 9.5 runs (-157)
10:15pm San Francisco (Cain) (-134)
4.54 units to win 18.05 units
Atlanta/NY Mets 3-3 in 10th...3 runs to work with so...
Shot # 6-1 Hedge (a)
Washington (+122)
2 units to win 2.44 units
Shot # 6-1 Hedge (b)
Washington +1.5 runs (-175)
LA Angels (Weaver) (-131)
Tomorrow 11:30 am ( will post detail )
Germany Bundesliga 2
Frieburg (+144)
Nurneburg (-273)
3:00pm England
Man Utd (-340)
1 unit to win 10.95 units
Regards,
Finally went to bed after the Nationals went ahead 7-5, expecting to wake up with a 1/2 unit loss.
Thankfully, SF came back to win 9-7.
Shot 6-1 (Level 1)
Part 's 1&2 +18.05 units
Hedges a & b -3.00 units
Net profit Level 1--15.05 units.
Be Back with a couple of speculative Lead-ins for Level 2 shortly.
Regards,
Shot # 6-1 (Level 2)
Part 1:
11:30am
Germany Bundesliga 2
FC Nurnberg (-290) v. Osnabruck
SC Freibrug (+135) v. Greuther Furth
3:00pm
England Premier
Manchester United (-348) v. Wigan
2 units to win 6.14 units
Part 2:
11:30am
Germany Bundesliga 2
FC Nurnberg (-290) v. Osnabruck
SC Freibrug / Greuther Furth DRAW (+219)
3:00pm
England Premier
Manchester United (-348) v. Wigan
1 units to win 4.52 units
Just speculating to get out of the gate.
Regards,
3 team Round Robin
3 2 teamers 1 3 teamer
1 unit each, Total risk 4 units
Germany Bundesliga
2:00 pm
Armenia Bielefeld/Hoddenheim DRAW (+244)
Energie Cottbus/Borussia M-Gladbach DRAW (+233)
Schalke 04/ Stuttgart DRAW (+248)
4 units to win 70.88 units
2 of 3 win at least 7.46 units
Regards,
Nurnberg 2 - 0 Osnabruck
Freiburg 0 - 0 Gareth Furth
Part 2 is alive, Part 1 goes down.
NOW...to the horns of a dilema. Man United is as sure a thing as there is in sports betting, IMHO, yet I have lost more than my fair share of sure things.
So I am choosing between:
1.) the Draw (+428)
2.) Wigan +0.5 goals (+278)
3.) Wigan +1.5 goals (-116)
Tonights Baseball games are:
8:40pm Colorado (Marquis) (-152)
9:40pm Cincinnati (Cueto) (-130)
Since 1/2 of yesterdays profit is 7.5 units, and 3 units are already in play, I an going to do a 2 part hedge.
Hedge (a)
3:00pm Wigan/Man Utd DRAW (+428)
8:40pm Colorado (Marquis) (-152)
9:40pm Cincinnati (Cueto) (-130)
1 unit to win 14.49 units
Hedge (b)
3:00pm Wigan +1.5 goals (-116)
8:40pm Colorado (Marquis) (-152)
9:40pm Cincinnati (Cueto) (-130)
2 units to win 8.92 units
Obviously, a Man Utd win will be rolled into Colorado & Cincinnati after the game.
Regards,
Shot #6-1 (Level 2)
Part 3:
Man United -1.5 goals (-102)
Colorado (-152)
Cincinnati (-130)
1.5 units to win 7.21 units.
Budget Spent ;-)
0-3...-4.00 units.
Shot #6-1 (Level 2)
Wigan 1 - 2 Manchester United.
Personally the absolute best result because I was loaded on Man Utd, with the Wigan +0.5 goal hedge.
Colorado (-157)
Cincinnati (-130)
5.52 units to win 10.47 units
This is the rollover of part 1.
Summary:
Hedge (b)
2 units to win 8.92 units
So, playing for 19.39 units.
Was all the screwing around worth it? Maybe, the Colorado/Cincinnati shot pays less than 2-1, the screwing around raised the odds to a bit better than 2.5-1
Regards,
Profit from (Level 1) +15.05 units
Loss from (Level 2) -7.5 units
Net profit +7.55 units
Back to work, boys & girls.
Regards,
Shot # 6-3 (Level 1)
3 team Round Robin
3 2-teamers, 1 3-teamer
11:30am
Finland
HJK Helsinki/ FC Honka OVER 2.5 goals (+105)
MyPa (+115) v. FC Lahti
12:00 noon
Denmark
Midtjylland (-118) v. Aalborg
4 units to win 16.31 units
2 of 3 winners break-even
Let's see if we can get out of the blocks cheaply.
Zip, Zero, NADA
-4 units.
Will be looking to work with:
France Ligue 2 Montpelier (-210) 2:00pm
Eanglan League 1 playoff Scunthorpe +0.5 goals (+107) 2:45pm
Probably no choice until 1:00-1:30ish
Regards,
Shot # 6-5
A little Speculation...like that hasn't happened before
France Ligue 2
2:00pm
Dijon (-105) v. Angers
Montpelier (-200) v. Ajaccio
Belgium
2:30pm
Lokeren/Mechelen DRAW (+225)
England League 1 play-off
2:45pm
Scunthorpe +0.5 goals (+108) v. MK Dons
1 unit to win 18.80 units
Regards,
NOTE: For truth in advertising...I despise MK Dons re: the AFC Wimbledon situation, but they have a good team. The pick of Scunthorpe is based on the fact that other than a 3 week period when they were focused on a trophy competition, Scunthorpe have lost only 4 of the remaining 17 away games. that's 75+% non-loss rate, AND they beat MK Dons in MK earlier in the year 2-0.