Dragon Shot's
Dragonswirl
Senior Member
Backround: I play parlays. I like some long strings, yet at this time of the year the time frame for a long string DOES NOT exist. Thus Dragon Shot's.
Concept, to keep bets low, when cold, AND strike while the iron is HOT.
Money Management. 1st level shot 5-7 units, 2 or 3 game string. IF get to 2nd level (next day), Either same bet, or reduced bet (insuring a profit for the shot). 3rd level and beyond, previous bet + up to 1/2 of profits on previous level.
Hedge: IF I get to last game in a day's parlay, AND that game has not started, I will hedge enough to recover the amount of the bet.
Since Today is opening day, I have 2 shots:
Shot #1 (Level 1)
1:10pm NY Mets (Santana) (-157)
3:40pm Arizona (Webb) (-165)
7:15pm Totonto (Halladay) (-149)
7 units to win 23.75 units
Shot #2 (Level 1)
2:05pm Red Sox (Beckett) (-144)
2:05pm Cleveland (Lee) (-122)
9:05pm LA Angels (Saunders) (-145)
5 units to win 21.05 units
Regards,
Concept, to keep bets low, when cold, AND strike while the iron is HOT.
Money Management. 1st level shot 5-7 units, 2 or 3 game string. IF get to 2nd level (next day), Either same bet, or reduced bet (insuring a profit for the shot). 3rd level and beyond, previous bet + up to 1/2 of profits on previous level.
Hedge: IF I get to last game in a day's parlay, AND that game has not started, I will hedge enough to recover the amount of the bet.
Since Today is opening day, I have 2 shots:
Shot #1 (Level 1)
1:10pm NY Mets (Santana) (-157)
3:40pm Arizona (Webb) (-165)
7:15pm Totonto (Halladay) (-149)
7 units to win 23.75 units
Shot #2 (Level 1)
2:05pm Red Sox (Beckett) (-144)
2:05pm Cleveland (Lee) (-122)
9:05pm LA Angels (Saunders) (-145)
5 units to win 21.05 units
Regards,
Comments
Mets win
Arizona win
In a can't lose position.
Hedge: 7 units on Detroit (+141) to win 9.87 units.
The final result for today on Shot #1
Toronto win +16.75 units
Detroit win +2.87 units
Shot #2
DEAD!!!
Red Sox cancelled
Cleveland LOST
Loss 5 units.
Summary: -5 units
Since I play almost exclusively parlays, my units are 10. I'd say generally, IF you flat bet generally, IMHO, your parlay units should be 10-15% of your regular play, and NO MORE than 20%.
Regards,
Toronto wins
Shot #1 Currently +16.75 units
Will be back in the morning with Shot # 1 (Level 2)
Also will have Shot #3.
Regards,
Summary:
Completed shots -5.00units
Shot # 1 (Level 2)
4:05pm EDT Red Sox (Beckett) (-140)
4:05pm EDT San Francisco (Lincecum) (-159)
9:40pm EDT Arizona (Haren) (-151)
5 units to win 18.21 units
NOTE: I took this back a couple of units, locking up at least a 11.75 unit profit for Shot # 1.
Shot #3 (Level 1)
2:45pm EDT Soccer-Champions League Manchester United (-261) v. Porto
2:45pm EDT Soccer-Champions League Arsenal (+159) at Villarreal
8:35pm EDT NBA--Orlando/Houston Over 185 (bot 3.5 points) (-180)
5 units to win 22.86 units
Summary:
completed shots -5.00 units
keep up the good work Dragon
You are always welcome.
I have learned from too many unpleasant experiences to hedge. I consider it the cost of doing business. Sometimes it's either/or, but my rule in baseball is IF the +1.5 runs has a line of less than (-125) I ALWAYS hedge with +1.5 runs. You might be surprised how often I catch a middle (15-20%). Yesterday, on some strings from Monday night, I had the Met's as the last game. Took Cincinnati +1.5 runs (-118). Caught the middle.
Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes the bug.
Regards,
Man Utd 2 - 2 Porto (BIG loser)
Villerreal 1 - 1 Arsenal (Another BIG Loser)
This shot was basically dead 10 minutes into these games as both Man Utd & Arsenal went down 1-0. Arsenal clawed back for the important AWAY goal, but it was in the 70's minutes (don't remember exactly). Man Utd actually took the lead about the time Arsenal leveled, only to draw with a 89th minute goal by Porto.
Summary:
Completed shots: -10.00 units
Red Sox won
San Francisco won
No lose situation for 2nd day in a row.
Hedge: 5 units on Colorado (+138) to win 6.9 units
Recap of where Shot #1 stands:
IF Arizona wins +13.21 units for the day
IF Colorado wins +1.9 units for the day
Carryover from yesterday. Additional +11.75 units
Regards,
Shot #1 (level2)
Arizona lost
+1.9 units for Tuesday +11.75 carryover from Monday. Profit for Shot #1 13.65 units.
A small rant on hedging. Tuesday was going along almost perfect, particularly IF one remembers Shot #3. Through Minnesota coming back scoring 3 runs with 2 outs in the 9th. My ONLY losses were the 3 picks in Shot #3. Then, the Baseball Gods came home from their golf game and it must have been a bad day for them and they extended that misfortune to me. Chicago Cubs went down, AND all 3 of the West Coast games went pear shaped.
Since I play parlays predominantly, I ALWAYS hedge the last game in any string. Last night is the BEST example of WHY. Yes, I would hedge UCONN in the womens Championship if they were a last game. At 9:30ish, I had parlays with Arizona as the last game 15 units to win 66+ units. I hedged with Colorado 17 units to win 23+ units. I Know, giving up @25% of potential profit might be stupid, yet I was going to make a profit, and IMHO, that is the name of the game. Had LA Dodgers as last game of string made up of picks from the BT crowd (Particularly Rudy) 3.4 units to win 27+ units, I went back and took SD Padres 8 units to win 8+units. I had LA Angels 4 units to win 43+ units, then went back and took Oakland 12.48 units to win 12 units.
Bottom line, on most days the 37+ units spent on hedges would/could have dampened a GREAT Day, yet Tuesday night the 43+ units returned due to the hedges, made Tuesday a good day, even when ALL the late night games went against me.
End of rant!
Summary:
3 shots played +3.65 units
Shot # 4 (Level 1)
12:10pm EDT Florida (Volstad) (-128)
2:45pm EDT Liverpool/Chelsea Champions League under 2 goals (-118)
7:05pm EDT NY Yankees (Wang) (-155)
10:05pm EDT LA Dodgers (Billingsley) (-165)
7 units to win 53.87 units
Shot # 5 (Level 1)
12:10pm EDT Florida Team Total Over 4.5 runs (-120)
2:45pm EDT England Championship Derby County +0.5 goals (-105)
8:10pm EDT Minnesota (Slowey) (-148)
5 units to win 24.99 units
Summary:
completed shots: +3.65 Units
Both shots went down due to the soccer game.
Shot #4
Liverpool/Chelsea went over
Shot #5
Cardiff crushed Derby
Result for the day -12.00 units
Summary:
Completed shots: -8.35 units
Time to pull back just a bit
Shot #6 (Level 1)
1:35pm Boston (DiceK) (-146)
1:35pm NY Yankees (Burnett) (-173)
1:40 pm St. Louis (Carpenter) (-185)
10:25pm LA Angels (Weaver) (-120)
5 units to win 32.55 units
Since Friday is "Good Friday" there are a good number of games in European Soccer.
I am going to attempt to reprise Draws aplenty from last weekend:
These games are at 10:00am & 10:15am EDT
Shot # 7 (Level # 1)
This is a 4 team Round Robin, 1 4-teamer, 4 3-teamers and 6 2-teamers for a total of 11 units.
10:00am
England League 1
Carlisle/ Oldham Athletic draw (+233)
England League 2
Bury/ Shrewsbury draw (+218)...in their last 5 games Bury have drawn 4, Shrewsbury have drawn ALL 5.
10:15am
England Championship
Wolverhampton/Southampton (+274)...Wolverhampton are top of table and cruising. Southampton are trying to exit the relegation zone, have drawn 4 of last 5 and their last 3 away games.
England League 2
Morecambe/Bradford City (+215)
Risk 11 units to win 330.62 units
Note: 2 of 4 winners, worst case -1 unit.
3 of 4 winners, worst case +57+ units
I will post shortly another 4 team Round Robin in France Ligue 2 at 2:00pm & 2:30pm
IF this shot has 0,1 or 2 winners the French play WILL BE Shot # 8.
IF this shot has 3 winners, the French play will become Level 2, and be played for 3 units each (33 units) total.
In the unlikely chance ALL 4 games come in, the French play will become Level 2, and be played for 10 units each (110) units total.
2:00pm EDT
Ajaccio/Tours draw (+190)
LB Chateauroux/Reims draw (+190)
2:30pm EDT
Angers/Guingamp (+193)
Vannes/Metz (+185)
2's, 3's & 4
11 units to win 206.55
The idea of shot's IS NOT my own, although I don't think it's either patented OR copyrighted.
It's obviously a Money Management System.
Win Level #1, and at that point you CAN'T lose money on that shot.
At Level #2, Same bet, OR regress the bet a bit, IT increases the profit, if I/you win.
Level #3 upward, I move up bet & Pull more profit, for each win.
I am a bit more speculative at Level #1, and IF/WHEN get to Level's 3 and above, I will probably move back to 2-teamers mostly, because I am getting more money exposed, and I want to keep the run going.
I am generally a contrarian, I play don't at craps. I think it's criminal when I see a "HOT" table, a shooter with the dice for 30 minutes, and many/most players "Press It". End of the roll, MAYBE they have a profit.
I accept small wins, and am looking for ways to minimize losses.
I love +1.5 runs, particularly as a hedge, where middles are possible. IF I like a dog straight up, I am not proud enough to ignore the +1.5 runs, AND the parlays eat up the vig.
Tonight I will be playing Yankees, Tampa & Atlanta paying 3+-1. I am going to play at about 20% of my regular bet on a couple of the draws today, coupled with those 3 games, seeing IF I can get a better payoff on that parlay. Idea...reducing bet while preserving payoff. Sometimes it works, sometimes not.
Let's see if the "Old Wives Tales" are correct AND this is a GOOD FRIDAY!
Regards,
Wolverhampton 3 - 0 Southampton...never had a chance as Wolves 1st goal at 35 seconds, 2 more by 20 minutes.
Carlisle 1 - 1 Oldham...Even though Carlisle was ahead most of the game, I was confident.
Bury 2 - 1 Shrewsbury...80th minute score did the damage.
Morecambe 2 - 1 Bradford City...78th minute goal (I believe) wasn't helpful.
Shot#7 Loss 11 units.
Shot # 8 (Level 1)
Here is the French Ligue 2 Round Robin with current lines:
2:00pm EDT
Ajaccio/Tours draw (+196)
LB Chateauroux/Reims draw (+183)
2:30pm EDT
Angers/Guingamp (+190)
Vannes/Metz (+178)
2's, 3's & 4
11 units to win 200.12 units
2 winners @ 3 unit loss
Playing only 2's, 2 winners @1 unit win minimum
Ajjacio 0 2 Tours (loss)
LB Chateauroux 0 - 0 Reims (win)
Angers 0 - 1 Guingamp (loss)
Vannes 1 - 1 Metz (win)
Loss 3.13 units
Sorry for the late posting on Italy:
Italy Serie A:
9:00am
Chievo +0.5 goals (+102) v. AC Milan
Lecce/Sampdoria draw (+214)
Germany Bundesliga:
9:30am
Monchengladbach v. Wolfsburg (-114)...Probably BEST of the day. Wolfsburg have won 8 straight in Bundesliga, and M-gladbach are in relegation Zone.
England:
Premiership:
10:00am
Wigan +0.5 goals (-108) v. Arsenal...Other than last weekends destruction at Everton, Wigan have been a tough side for the past couple of months. Expect Arsenal to play a reduced side, including injury and a Champions League mid-week.
Middlesborough/Hull City Under 2.5 goals (-150)...Well they don't offer a line of Under 0 goals, so this will have to do.
Championship
Crystal Palace/Cardiff draw (+207)...Crystal Palace draw often at home, Cardiff are the better side and have drawn 11 of 20 away games.
League 2
Lincoln City/ LutonTown draw (+204)...Lincoln City 10 draws in 20 hime games, Luton 6W 7D 7L away.
England:
12:30pm EDT
Stoke City (+149) v. Newcastle...Only 3 of the top sides have left Stoke with 3 points this season, Newcastle is on their way to the Championship.
Regards,
It's the BIG support rather than reality, IMHO.
That's why I ALWAYS look for the mid table sides, Wigan, Hull City, Stoke, etc. Always bonus prices.
Regards,
1:05 pm EDT Detroit (Vrelander) (-166)
4:05pm EDT Seattle (Hernandez) (-108)
7:10pm EDT NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-193)
10 units to win 36.85 units
Seattle leading 8-5 2out in bottom of 9th. 1 runner on.
I'm taking that Morrow will close it out.
Hedge: 12 units on KC +1.5 runs (+110).
Be back in a couple of moments for recap.
Tigers won
Seattle won
Can't lose here.
If Yankees in by 2 or more +21.46 units.
If KC wins +3.2 units
IF Yankees win by 1 run +46.66 units