Q&A with Scott Redick, DraftDay manager, designer and avid daily fantasy NBA player

We’re going to start doing interviews with people in the daily fantasy industry, and here’s our first one. It’s with Scott Redick — @Sports_25toLife on Twitter — who works as DraftDay‘s customer success manager handling game design and creation. Redick, who also helped start thefakebasketball.com, is an avid fantasy player who specializes in daily fantasy NBA, a sport he finds “to be the most predictive and rewarding of knowledge.” Approaching 8,000 followers on Twitter, Redick tweets consistently good stuff and is more than worth a follow if you’re into daily fantasy sports.

Note: Looking to try out daily fantasy sports? Check out BiggerBonus.com for a list of the best bonuses in the industry, and make sure to register for our FREE fantasy sports forum.

Q: Let’s say I’m a guy who enjoys season-long fantasy but has been hesitant for awhile about jumping into daily fantasy sports (DFS). Why should I make the jump and what are some tips to get started?

A: “I believe there are some sports, namely NBA, that are simply better as daily fantasy sports. I barely play any season-long basketball leagues anymore. The best thing about jumping into daily from season-long is that you don’t have to sweat long-term injuries to your players. For instance, I’m in one season-long MLB league this year, and four of my first five picks are already out for the season and I’m in dead last. That’s just not much fun, whereas with daily contests I can select a new team of healthy players each day.”

Q: Same question, but now let’s say I’m a casual to semi-serious sports gambler. Why should I try out DFS, and what similarities could I draw on to maybe help me find success in DFS?

A: “The knowledge base for a semi-serious sports gambler and a daily fantasy player definitely has some major overlap, but it differs in how it’s applied. With DFS, you are looking at those same Vegas lines but instead of predicting over and under, you are trying to determine what players are causing those lines to fluctuate. Instinct on how and why those lines are set how they are can be a huge advantage.”

Q: Fill out the rest of this sentence. In five years, the daily fantasy industry will be ___________.

A: “Dramatically different than it is now. Many don’t realize that this is still a young industry. There are going to be changes to every aspect — not just the size of the prize pools — as this industry grows. More users will allow sites to get more creative and diverse with their offerings and appease smaller segments of their user-base better.”

Q: So, what do you think is the next big step that has to be taken for the daily fantasy industry to become more mainstream?

A: “More mobile games. Our Rapid Fire is a quick, mobile game that you can play in about 30 seconds each day for as little as $1. And all you have to do is pick the winner of three out of five head-to-head player matchups correctly.”

Q: I’m sure you saw Sports Illustrated recently announced they’re dipping their toes in the DFS game with a new app. Why have bigger sites like ESPN, Yahoo and CBS always been aggressive with season-long fantasy sports, but we haven’t seen them take the plunge into DFS yet in anything other than an advertising-type role? Do you think they ever will, and what would happen if they did?

A: “It’s a whole different game. They need more customer service, lower rake, more frequent strategy articles and many other logistical things to make the transition work for them. This is a tall task when they are used to ‘run it and forget it’ season-long leagues. I think they’ll continue to dip their toes in until the right opportunity presents itself.”

Q: What, in your opinion, are the benefits of playing at DraftDay compared to some of the other mainstream DFS sites?

A: “The many game types at DraftDay is our No. 1 advantage, in my opinion. We offer many contest types that aren’t offered on any of the other mainstream sites such as Target Games, Bracket Contests, Live “Snake” Drafts, Rapid Fire and Leagues, which users can create to play with their friends.”

Q: How much money are some of the top players at DraftDay making annually? Is there a good chunk who have turned this into a full-time gig? Or, on a broader scale, how much money would you guess some of the top DFS players in the country are making?

A: “Our top players are easily making into the low-to-mid six figures. Most of the best players have a specialty in one sport that they either stick to or focus most of their time on. Across the industry there are a decent number of players netting seven figures across the many sites.”

Q: True or False: You need to be updating your own spreadsheet daily to find “value plays” and be successful long-term in DFS.

A: “False. That really depends on the [sport and contest type that you’re playing]. For instance, in the NFL a spreadsheet is great, but there is so much information out there that you can easily construct a competitive team — especially for a large tournament — without one. I think NBA and MLB also fall on different ends of that scale. Having an updated spreadsheet in NBA can be very valuable if you don’t want a ton of games, but it’s definitely not a replacement for personal knowledge. In MLB, the salaries of players are probably the least important, meaning a spreadsheet may be very little help outside of outlining major mispricings.”

Intrade to repay former members, launch unique real-money fantasy sports game in U.S.

The next evolution in fantasy sports is poised to arrive in time for March Madness.

TradeSports.com, an Irish company powered by Intrade, is bringing its version of sports investing to the United States. TradeSports will allow players from the vast majority of states to show off their in-game trading skills, while financially investing in who wins and how many points are scored in a single game.

Intrade, a popular online prediction market, was sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2011 and eventually ceased operations in March. On Tuesday, the company published a press release, announcing that all market members and investors, in the United States and internationally, will be repaid in full, with account balances restored no later than Nov. 18. Intrade director Ronald Bernstein declined to comment on the status of the legal battle with the CFTC, but is confident about the company’s future.

“The company has sufficient resources now to progress some of the initiatives that we had been planning in the past,” Bernstein said in a Wednesday phone interview. “We’re really, really glad that we could come to the arrangements we have, where no U.S. customers, no international customers have lost any money due to the problems that befell the site.”

In the release, Bernstein, a former trader on the floor of the New York Board of Trade, also announced the return of TradeSports. He said Wednesday that the NCAA Tournament is being targeted for the initial launch. The markets will be centered on specific sporting events, for example, a Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles game. Contestants will trade contracts based on the likelihood of certain events during the game, including the final score.

TradeSports will use Intrade’s high-level trading technology to operate the game. The business model is similar to the “rake” model used by daily fantasy sites, with TradeSports taking 10 percent of the total entry fees and paying out the rest to winners. The biggest difference in TradeSports compared to daily fantasy sites is what is being traded.

In the TradeSports model, a player will enter a contest for a set amount, $10, for example. They will receive $10,000 virtual dollars in their portfolio and then will trade multiple contracts based on events in the game. Bernstein says which team wins or loses, how many points are scored by both teams and whether or not the quarterbacks combine for 500 yards are examples of contracts that will be traded during a game.

“You watch the game, and the markets fluctuate based on the likelihood of those events occurring,” Bernstein said. “Markets are always between 0-100, just like a stock or a futures market. Whoever trades the most successfully win the contest.”

Bernstein rejoined the Intrade team after CEO and good friend John Delaney died while attempting to climb Mount Everest in 2011. Bernstein visited with BettingTalk.com on Wednesday to discuss the legality of TradeSports in the United States, the importance of prediction markets and the future of Intrade.

Q&A with Intrade Director Ronald Bernstein

Q: Does the TradeSports model comply with the legal regulations for skill-based fantasy games?

Bernstein: Yes. I think the more important body of law that we’ll respect is that sports trading contests in the structure that we’ve designed are games of skill.

Q: Do you feel like you’ll be hearing from the CFTC or any of the sports leagues about this?

Bernstein: No, because I think we fall clearly in the realm of skill-based gaming with fantasy sports. The winner of our contest isn’t solely decided by a particular team or a particular player, and it’s clearly basis on your skills, your analysis, your reaction time and your intuition on making trades, just the same way a professional hedge manager trades. We have overwhelming commentary about the skills required to be a successful sports trader as opposed to participating in a game of chance.

Q: An academic paper, “The Promise of Prediction Markets,” authored by 19 business professors in 2008 highlighted the value of prediction markets. Five years later, after the rise and fall of Intrade, why do you believe there is still promise and value in prediction markets?

Bernstein: What we’ve learned in our operating experience is that there is a tremendous thirst for market data. And what I mean by market data is a very measurable way to analyze the current opinion about things. When we say opinion, we don’t mean what people hope will happen, we mean what people think will happen. People need to know that, because life is moving so quickly now and in so many different directions, it’s very difficult to be completely informed, even on things that matter a lot to us. And by having a way to see what other people think about things, helps us reset, compare and gauge our own reactions accordingly. Sometimes it could lead to preparation about things or sometimes it’s just for entertainment. Sports is the ultimate market for that. But there’s also things like who will be elected? What might happen if a Democrat gets elected? Will interest rates grow up? Should I lock in my mortgage now? Should I take my money out of CDs or put my money into CDs? Prediction markets take a snap shot of the wisdom of the crowd about any particular question that can be answered ‘yes’ or ‘no.’ And help us plan for those things ourselves. That’s why I feel they’re very important.

Q: What is next for Intrade?

Bernstein: Intrade always operated with the absolute best motivator, and that was cold-hard cash. Putting your money where your mouth is. The challenge now for Intrade it to understand what else will motivate people to try very, very hard to vote on things. You need a very active and engaged community to try to do their best to provide the opinions and results that they think will come true. Otherwise, the data doesn’t have that same grip on reality.

NJ didn’t get desired ruling in sports betting case, but decision was closer than expected

The consensus among legal experts in the aftermath of the latest ruling to go against New Jersey in its landmark sports betting case is that the language in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals’s opinion is soft and leaves plenty of room for further debate.

Potentially in front of the Supreme Court.

On Tuesday, two of three Third Circuit judges upheld a May ruling from US District Judge Michael Shipp that prevented New Jersey from bringing Las Vegas-style sports betting to its racetracks and casinos. But it was the dissent of the third judge on the Third Circuit panel—in addition to the soft language—that had New Jersey officials confident and ready to continue the fight.

Throughout the 128-page decision, the court acknowledged strong arguments from the New Jersey side, but ultimately ruled in favor of the sports leagues suing to prevent Gov. Chris Christie’s efforts. There are indications that the court didn’t fully buy into the wisdom behind the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), a 20-year-old federal statute that prohibits sports betting in all but four states and is at the heart of the legal case.

From the Third Circuit’s conclusion:

If baseball is a game of inches, constitutional adjudication may be described as a matter of degrees. The questions we have addressed are in many ways sui generis. Neither the standing nor the merits issues we have tackled permit an easy solution by resorting to a controlling case that provides a definitive “Eureka!” moment.

Tassos Kaburakis, a Saint Louis University professor who has written extensively on PASPA-related issues, has followed the case closely. Among the biggest takeaways, he said, is that the decision was much closer than many thought it would be.

“They don’t have very strong language in key parts of the decision,” Kaburakis said. “There is language in there that leads one to believe they were not thoroughly convinced. They left quite a bit of room for a future in this case. If only one judge would have gone the other way on one of the many parts of analysis, we would have had a major development. The more you dig and the deeper you go into it and read between the lines, this is closer than one would think.”

Kaburakis visited with Betting Talk this week to discuss the ruling and what’s next in a case that will shape the future of sports betting in the US.

* * *

Is it unusual to have this type of soft language in a ruling of this magnitude?

When it’s as close as this case appears to be, you tend to see that type of language. But if it wasn’t as close, you would have seen much stronger language. Even some of the areas where the language tends to be a little stronger, it’s just not very convincing. In key parts, they are using common-sense language.

What stood out to you in the ruling?

There is a lot. For example, ‘The reputational harm that results from increasingly associating the leagues’ games with gambling is fairly intuitive.’ That analysis of the leagues’s standing, injury in fact, and reputational harm, where they’re trying to actually make stronger points, doesn’t come off as very convincing. It’s a little problematic in those areas.

The leagues have relationships with the gambling industry, but also say that the gambling industry is one that puts a stigma on their product. You have casino sponsorships, sports-team branded lottery scratch cards, conference (tournament) games in Las Vegas and so many more business relationships between the gambling industry operators and sports governance actors. Their association with lotteries is a direct benefit. That’s not for free that the leagues are doing that. It’s a way to associate yourself with the gambling industry and to get something out of it. If you see, for example, Missouri lottery updates, one of the first things you notice is how the (St. Louis) Cardinals cards are doing. The Cardinals scratch cards are one of the hottest items sold here.

Moreover, when the majority (Third Circuit judges) gets into the merits and applies Constitutional Law analysis on the key matters of Commerce Clause, Supremacy Clause and Commandeering, they do assume a position, which in turn gives the dissent even more value, as Judge (Thomas) Vanaskie held PASPA unconstitutional. The majority’s own conclusion is instructive and enlightening.

What stood out to you in Judge Vanaskie’s dissent?

Here’s an important distinction between the majority and the minority: The dissent says there is no overarching legal framework in the country that regulates sports gambling as opposed to the majority holding that PASPA is the regulatory framework. The dissent is arguing that there is no regulatory framework and all that PASPA is doing is actually disallowing regulation by the state.

Therein, Judge Vanaskie holds that even though Congress has the power to regulate sports betting, that’s not what PASPA did. PASPA enlisted states in the fight against expansion of gambling on sports, essentially telling states how to (not) regulate or act.

This is a very significant part of his dissent: ‘I agree with my colleagues that Congress has the authority under the Commerce Clause to ban gambling on sporting events, and that such a ban could include state-licensed gambling. I part company with my colleagues because that is not what PASPA does. Instead, PASPA conscripts the states as foot soldiers to implement a congressional policy choice that wagering on sporting events should be prohibited to the greatest extent practicable. Contrary to the majority’s view, the Supremacy Clause simply does not give Congress the power to tell the states what they can and cannot do in the absence of a validly-enacted federal regulatory or deregulatory scheme.’

He adds: ‘Congress does have the authority to regulate sports gambling when it does so itself. In this case, however, we are faced with the issue of whether Congress has the authority to regulate how states regulate sports gambling. Contrary to the majority opinion’s suggestion, other federal statutes relating to sports gambling do not aggregate to form the foundation of a federal regulatory scheme that can be interpreted as preempting state regulations of sports gambling.’

What he’s saying there is that essentially they read more into PASPA than they should have. There is no federal framework, and since there is no federal framework, their analysis is kind of flawed there. He says that if a law gives the options of either a) having totally unregulated betting, which is in essence the logical outcome of PASPA as an extension of the majority’s opinion, holding that states are not asked to do something, rather just not regulate, which obviously was not what PASPA and Congress intended; or b) prohibiting all such gambling, that law is unconstitutional.

Moreover, Judge Vanaskie clearly disagrees with both Judge Shipp and the majority on the key analysis on commandeering and what PASPA is actually doing for and to the states. Judge Vanaskie holds that trying to distinguish between a federal directive that commands states to take affirmative action and one that prohibits states from exercising their sovereignty is illusory and untenable.

He writes: “Surely the structure of our Federalism does not turn on the phraseology used.

Thus, he believes the majority should have paid more careful attention to what PASPA actually says and what it did (commandeer states by forcing them not to regulate), what it did not (establish a regulatory framework on sports gambling), rather than attempting to interpret what it intended (preempting sports gambling regulation in the broadest scope possible) and what is missing from it (an affirmative action prescription for states to actively assume a stance against gambling via legislation).

This is an area where the Supreme Court might lend some valuable insight, given it is a meaningful constitutional problem to resolve.

Do you believe the Supreme Court will hear this case?

Pencil me in for them hearing it. There are reasons why they’d take it on: There are valid fundamental constitutional law issues with PASPA, state sovereignty, Supremacy Clause and commandeering aspects, whether or how Congress regulates sports betting as interstate commerce. There is enough Constitutional meat for them to take it.

If New Jersey ultimately loses, is there any point in another state taking up the fight judicially?

There’s value to another jurisdiction taking PASPA on, for sure. When you look at big markets in particular, especially ones with strong and growing immigrant elements and where prerequisites such as gaming outlets, online lotteries, and gaming revenue are increasing—states like California, Florida, New York and Illinois—one can conceivably foresee another state in the near future possibly reaching that maturation stage which New Jersey reached around the time of the referendum and adoption of the sports wagering law.

The fact that even the most traditionally conservative political forces assume a more accepting stance toward gambling avenues for their states—think Joe Barton, Tea Party Republican in Texas introducing online poker bill—might yield seeds of something deeper that could be happening around the country, if not right now, possibly in the near future. Naturally, there has to be political will, grassroots and lobbying action as one observed in New Jersey, and of course courts and a federal circuit panel that will carefully analyze PASPA and possibly assume a different take than the Third Circuit.