Bettors bullish on the San Francisco Giants this season may have found a friend in Las Vegas’ Golden Nugget sports book this week. Veteran oddsmakers Tony Miller and Aaron Kessler hung their 2016 MLB totals on Tuesday with some notable differences from last week’s totals put up by the Atlantis in Reno.
Two that immediately stand out: The Golden Nugget has the Chicago Cubs pegged at 94 wins, four more than any other team. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants—one of the National League favorites in the futures markets and the highest total on Atlantis’ slate—isn’t even the leader in their own division.
The Giants, World Series champs in 2010, 2012 and 2014, are marked for 86 wins, four behind last year’s NL West champion Dodgers.
“We definitely hung them low,” Kessler said. “My personal take on San Fran is that they just don’t have the sticks. Their rotation is alright. They’ve got Bumgarner, who is an absolute stud. Cueto and Samardzija should be pretty solid. It’ll be very interesting to see what Cueto does in his first season in a real pitcher’s park; he had half a season in Kansas City. I mean, Cueto’s stats are going to look great, I think. Samardzija was knocked around last year, but he had a really bad outfield defense behind him, and San Fran’s got a very good outfield defense, so it should help him as a fly-ball pitcher.
“But all the same, you look at the team, and their top bats after Buster Posey are Brandon Belt and Matt Duffy and there’s cause for concern.”
The Golden Nugget isn’t completely on an island in that concern. Both the PECOTA projections, also released Tuesday, and Fangraphs’ projected standings have the Dodgers as the team to beat in the West.
Also in common with the projection systems, the Golden Nugget has the defending World Series champ Kansas City Royals finishing behind the Indians in the AL Central. Kessler said the Royals produced the book’s biggest challenge in creating the totals.
“No question, (it was) Kansas City,” he said. “We’ve got them at 84. And it’s a team that we know the public is going to be on them, they just won the World Series and they’re a team that’s been in October, highly visible the last couple of seasons. They don’t play in the toughest division, but a lot of the projection numbers we use have the Royals very low, so we know a lot of the wise guys are going to be low on them. So with the Royals, it’s just a case of hang the number as high as you possibly can to get a little action from the tourist and hope you don’t get beat too bad by the wise guys.”
| Team | Atlantis | Golden Nugget | Westgate SuperBook |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL EAST | |||
| Toronto | 87 | 86 | 86.5 |
| Boston | 85.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| New York | 85 | 85 | 86.5 |
| Baltimore | 80.5 | 77 | 78.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 78 | 81.5 | 80 |
| AL CENTRAL | |||
| Kansas City | 87 | 84 | 83.5 |
| Detroit | 85 | 81 | 81.5 |
| Cleveland | 84 | 85 | 85.5 |
| Chicago | 80.5 | 81 | 80 |
| Minnesota | 77.5 | 79 | 79 |
| AL WEST | |||
| Texas | 86 | 80.5 | 83.5 |
| Houston | 85.5 | 87.5 | 88 |
| Seattle | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Los Angeles | 82.5 | 81 | 81.5 |
| Oakland | 75.5 | 75.5 | 75.5 |
| NL EAST | |||
| New York | 88 | 89 | |
| Washington | 87 | 88 | |
| Miami | 80.5 | 79.5 | |
| Philadelphia | 66.5 | 65.5 | |
| Atlanta | 65 | 67 | |
| NL CENTRAL | |||
| Chicago | 89 | 94 | |
| St. Louis | 87.5 | 85 | |
| Pittsburgh | 87 | 86 | |
| Milwaukee | 71.5 | 71 | |
| Cincinnati | 71 | 72 | |
| NL WEST | |||
| San Francisco | 90 | 86 | |
| Los Angeles | 87 | 90 | |
| Arizona | 84.5 | 82 | |
| San Diego | 74 | 75 | |
| Colorado | 68.5 | 72 |
AROUND THE WEB
- There won’t be a decision today (and likely not for a couple of months or more), but the immediate future of sports betting in America hangs in the balance of today’s 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals en banc hearing. ESPN’s David Purdum has a preview of the hourlong hearing, which begins at 11 a.m. ET.
- The NBA trade deadline is Thursday, and the dealing has begun. No blockbusters yet, but Detroit dealing Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova to Orlando for Tobias Harris is certainly noteworthy. You can track trades here, and geek out on rumors here.
- Five weirdest PECOTA projections for MLB in 2016.
LOOK WHO’S TALKING
“New Jersey’s chances are excellent and better than they have ever been previously.” —Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach with his take on today’s hearing.
“We’re taking a different approach. We’re creating an environment where policymakers are inclined to ask the questions that we would like to see them ask about the issue.”—Geoff Freeman, the chief executive of the American Gaming Association, on the strategy to get sports betting legalized.
TWEETS OF NOTE
MLB regular season wins, division odds and a plethora of regular season propositions will be available this Sunday (Feb 21) at noon
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) February 16, 2016
Whats funnier? ???? — Jose Bautista (@JoeyBats19) February 16, 2016
ODDS & ENDS
- Want to follow today’s hearing on Twitter? Both Purdum and Wallach will be in attendance.
- NCAA championship events could be coming to Las Vegas in the near future.
- Roger Goodell earned $34.1 million in 2014 compensation.
- Pats LB Jerod Mayo retiring at 29.
- Ronda Rousey says she had suicidal thoughts after loss to Holly Holm.
- Soccer ref in Argentina reportedly shot dead on the field by player he redcarded.
- Amaya to combine PokerStars, Full Tilt into a single site.
ODDSMAKER’S TAKE
“I’m sure that people are going to call me out on this, but I’m a pretty diehard Cubs fan. A lot of people know that. I’ve been in tune with the team, and they’re great up and down the lineup, pitching’s a little bit of a question after 2 and 3, but they’re very public, and we don’t mind taking a couple of pops on the under if the number is too high, because we know we’re going to get money on the over.” —Oddsmaker Aaron Kessler on how the Golden Nugget settled on 94 for the Cubs’ season win total.