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    Senior Member R40's Avatar
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    Your chances of winning a bet on GB's defense are not as good as Tulane's. The fact is that some of them can win bets based on GB's defense. The trouble is when they do, they try to win again based on Chicago's defense and lose their winnings. That is the trick to winning gambling. You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.

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    I look at a guy like Jets and the guy is killing it but because he is humble and does not scream his record out all day like I do and you can see that talent plays a role. he is way way way less worried about the line than I am and he BLOWS ME and reallity everyone here out of the water. guy is up like 30 or so units ( I dont know how many just guessing) and does not post his record once, the one time I asked he said SHUT UP! He does not think its important to go around saying how good you are and that is a nice change from the touts but in reality I bet you check his bets and his CLV and the guy is beating the line consistenly. I see the value in his bets, you can see it just by looking at them when he posts them, they have value just not sure on the clv but dont doubt there is value there.

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    Jets is less annoying than you and I am glad you have found a friend.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    Your chances of winning a bet on GB's defense are not as good as Tulane's. The fact is that some of them can win bets based on GB's defense. The trouble is when they do, they try to win again based on Chicago's defense and lose their winnings. That is the trick to winning gambling. You have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
    I think you are smart but I think we look at it completely different. I think you brought that up before and said how it was the modeler and capper or something but yeah we see it different and i think the best is the guy in the middle who has both! I think that guy probably kills it BUT full disclosure I dont think very many people win, I really dont. I think for 99.99% of people winning is a short term symptom of betting but not a permanent condition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    I think you are smart but I think we look at it completely different. I think you brought that up before and said how it was the modeler and capper or something but yeah we see it different and i think the best is the guy in the middle who has both! I think that guy probably kills it BUT full disclosure I dont think very many people win, I really dont. I think for 99.99% of people winning is a short term symptom of betting but not a permanent condition.
    Yes, you pretty much need both these days.

    There is no doubt that very few win. Many more are capable of winning but don't. Some can win at one sport but not others. Some win but not in respected ways so they don't count for some.

    Most gamblers are their own worst enemy so no matter what their potential or capability, they will wind up in the hole by betting too many games or betting stuff they shouldn't.

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    The basic difference between you and me is that you believe in the market is largely unbeatable. I believe the market is beatable but only on a limited basis. Every winning gambler has a certain capacity to win. I can probably can't win on 300 college football bets. I have won on 200. My chances are better at 50 and I am basically guaranteed to win at 10 or less if I limit myself to those lines that are absolutely WRONG.

    Does that make me sharp? I can probably win 10,000s of thousands on those lines. But I am not going to have that much in an account when I am only going to bet 10 games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by R40 View Post
    Jets is less annoying than you and I am glad you have found a friend.
    guy is the real deal and nobody knows it because he is quiet and does not scream his record all day!

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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan View Post
    guy is the real deal and nobody knows it because he is quiet and does not scream his record all day!
    I think you have that backwards, itís a lot easier to not keep a record. Keeping a record makes you accountable, nowhere to hide when things go poorly.

    I donít know of anybody on this forum that beats their chest over winning records. Other forums yes, here no, winners are quite humble in my opinion. As long as they post their records whether winning or losing, which the great majority do, they are not screaming by posting their record. Iíd suggest you just cover your ears if you think they are screaming. I personally love to see people win because I know how hard it is to do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spiderman77 View Post
    I think you have that backwards, itís a lot easier to not keep a record. Keeping a record makes you accountable, nowhere to hide when things go poorly.

    I donít know of anybody on this forum that beats their chest over winning records. Other forums yes, here no, winners are quite humble in my opinion. As long as they post their records whether winning or losing, which the great majority do, they are not screaming by posting their record. Iíd suggest you just cover your ears if you think they are screaming. I personally love to see people win because I know how hard it is to do.
    in regards to keeping a record you are wrong, period.
    and for beating their chest for a good record, I was mainly referring to me!

    - - - Updated - - -

    and I think the funny thing is what good does it do keeping a record, every single person I know has winning streaks nerf or sharp. Winning means nothing, line direction is everything, you should be tracking your line direction or its useless posting. I dont follow or pay attention to anyones record unless they track clv or line direction. If i check out someones picks, the only thing I do is look at the line direction on their picks, CSH guy was not my friend but he had awesome line direction and I bet he comes close to winning or is winning long term. Keeping a W/L record is dumb and useless for the picker and the pickees. is pickees a word, LOL?

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