MLB Model
danshan
Senior Member
I just am doing some work on a baby MLB model and I backtested it against the last 1500 or so games and it is
average 14 cents low and 19 cents high average line of -115, is that 1-10, 1 horrible, get a day job get a work for food sign or 10 perfect wow unbelievable rich forever you are a genius. I am obviously trying to get it closer anyway I can but just wanted a few opinions.
average 14 cents low and 19 cents high average line of -115, is that 1-10, 1 horrible, get a day job get a work for food sign or 10 perfect wow unbelievable rich forever you are a genius. I am obviously trying to get it closer anyway I can but just wanted a few opinions.
Comments
When I backtest I'm at about 40% success at understanding anything danshan says in a given post. I picture a guy in a wheelchair typing with a plastic wand strapped to his head like Stephen Hawking.
thanks for the help! you were one of those guys in school who seen the real bullies picking on someone so you then you started to do it too! BE PROUD!
Nice one. I don't understand the metric you are describing. Can you state it differently in case I can help?
I take those lines it kicks out and compare them to the closing line of past games
I predict the line of -118 and the line I predict is off the close in the range of -108 to -130.
I do it both ways so I can get a range. I cant just average my result because it would be not nearly as close
my only question is that close enough to do well or is that way way way off does it need to way closer
I'm interested in the parameters of your model. How much are starting pitchers weighted versus other factors? Is travel considered? Injuries? Hot streaks or slumps? I also wonder if baseball has more or less intangibles like motivation and fatigue than with other sports. Or so long as it back tests, you can ignore all the noise?
right now I am just working on the baseline for my model.
I dont consider many of those factors as important in my model sure some but most NOT.
guess -118 could be -109 to -130
starter is about 95%
travel should be but I dont think it is as important as in Hockey or the NBA
motivation is not something I can find a value for so I avoid games with huge implications
I back test like crazy and that backtest does not adjust for any of that but does factor in the prev lines of course so in a sense its in there
you know my model is what i say it is. I showed you already with the lines I posted. MY NBA model is solid! The NBA is winding down so now I am working on MLB.
so I am wildy assuming that a variation of 10 cents on baseball would be comparable to being about half point basically off in the NBA and a little less than a half point off in the NFL, does that make any sense to anyone other than me? If that is the case I would assume that the MLB model being 10 cents off is very accurate. Any opinions?
tor 10.06
ind 6.20
mem 1.87
okc 2.00
sas 1.18
cant do the others to they play tonight ...do me a favor post something in my thread, i only look at a few people here
2/28 Pistons -2
2/28 Magic 9
2/28 Magic 221
2/28 Hawks 4
2/28 Hawks 211
2/28 Celtics -7
2/28 Celtics 211
2/28 Grizzlies -3.5
2/28 Suns 217
2/28 Wizards 8
2/28 Wizards 225
2/28 Mavericks 5.5
2/28 Clippers 219
2/28 Rockets -6 rockts iffy lots of changes coming with injuries
3/1 Heat -5
3/1 Seventysixers 217
3/1 Cavaliers -2
3/1 Nets 214
3/1 Kings -1.5
3/1 Timberwolves 218
3/1 Trailblazers -3.5
post up your 3-1 picks Jets!
gsw 5.45
hou 6.54
and milu which i forgot played last night was adjusted 0,60
3/2 Magic 212
3/2 Hornets 212
3/2 Seventysixers -2
3/2 Warriors -14
3/2 Hawks 223
3/2 Mavericks -1
3/2 Bulls 210
3/2 Nuggets -7.5
3/2 Grizzlies 214
3/2 Raptors -2.5
3/2 Wizards 217
3/2 Pacers 210
3/2 Bucks -2.5
3/2 Thunder -9
3/2 Suns 226
3/2 Timberwolves 212
3/2 Jazz -7
3/2 Knicks 222
3/2 Clippers -8
Bucks Clippers ???? still have big name players ???
cle 0.31
sac 0.05
por 3.59
looks like am taking all four dogs
Clippers got me again, Clippers and Suns are just crushing me everyday, I literally have no learning curve cause I cant learn!