I think this game stands a good chance to be played at a fast pace. St. John’s is the fastest pace team in the Big East and their last two games against Providence and Xavier were both 150+ possession games. Marquette plays faster than either of these teams. On offense Marquette has been over 1.10 OE in 8 out of 9 conference games and are up against one of the worst defenses in the conference. Marquette has also not been that good on defense this season. They are last in the Big East and have been really bad their last four games. Last season all three games between these teams played over and with this one being bet 7.5pts off from the opener and I think the over is worth a look here.
Any idea why some sites (for me it's my local's site, bookiemarket, do not have any college totals posted? This has not happened once this year til now. In fact, all totals have been widely available the night b4, esp after all that nights action is over.
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The Wildcats are the #3 team in the nation in offense efficiency and they are averaging 75 ppg in conference play. The last four games against Providence the Wildcats have averaged 75.5 ppg. I don’t think Providence is that inept on offense that they put up under 60 pts tonight. They have scored at least 60 in the last nine games against Villanova and have scored at an offense efficiency of 1.00 or better in 7 out of the last 8 games. Providence conference games are averaging 142.8 ppg and Villanova conference games are averaging 139.4 ppg. I think when both teams average a good amount more than the total in these conference games it bodes well for the over in these situations.
The Dragons defense has been non-existent the last two games and pretty much have played no defense all year. They are allowing opponents to score an average of 85.3 pts in conference games. Over there last eight games opponents have averaged 87.5 pts including a game where Delaware only scored 60. Towson games have gone over 5 out of the last 6 and their offense has been much better lately scoring with an offense efficiency of 1.12 over these six games. You got to think the good offense continues here against the worst defense in the CAA. On offense Drexel has been fairly consistent scoring over 70pts in their last nine games.
Not sure why the over has taken so much money on this game. Neither of these offenses are that good. YSU is 7th in the conference and Oakland is 8th. Overall for the entire season kenpom has each teams offense is rated in the lower half. YSU defense isn't that good but Oakland’s has been very good all season. In conference games Oakland has held opponents to an OE of well under 1.00. Oakland conference games are averaging 144.9 total points and YSU conference totals averaging 153.1 points. These teams have combined to played 20 conference games and only 3 have gone over 163 total points.
Kenpom has St. Peter’s rated #345 in tempo and their last six games have been their slowest paced games of the season. They are averaging just over 120 total possessions. St. Peter’s also has the best defense in the MAAC with a defense efficiency of 0.96. The game earlier this season was played at a fast pace but none of the previous six games between this teams was played all that fast. The previous seven games between these teams had totals of 132, 128, 130, 121, 104, 112, 111 for regulation time. Throw out the overtime scoring and the overs would have gone 1-6 during these seven previous games.
I don’t understand the overnight money moving this total 6pts higher. Louisville has gone on a little scoring streak here their last three games but that has come against the two worst defenses in the ACC and Boston Colleges is also near the bottom. Both these teams defenses are very good. Within the conference Louisville is #1 and Virginia is #2. Overall this season Louisville is #1 and Virginia is #3. I don’t expect the pace to be any different than any of the previous five games with it probably ending around 120 total possessions. The first game this season between these teams had a closing total of 118 and here we get a total that is 8pts higher and Snider (LOU) is out this game. The last five games between these teams played to final totals of 114, 114, 110, 116, 99.
542 St. Peter’s UNDER 137.5
Got to go back and try another Peacocks game here under again. Much of the rational as the last game still applies. The Peacocks are the best MAAC team in defense efficiency. Despite playing a fast paced team in Monmouth last game their tempo has dropped from #345 to #347 in nation. The last eight games between these teams played to regulation time totals of 118, 123, 124, 117, 130, 149, 122, 127. Throw out those first two conference games in early December and the last 11 Peacock conference games have averaged 125.6 total pts and many of these opponents play faster than Canisius.
Comments
I think this game stands a good chance to be played at a fast pace. St. John’s is the fastest pace team in the Big East and their last two games against Providence and Xavier were both 150+ possession games. Marquette plays faster than either of these teams. On offense Marquette has been over 1.10 OE in 8 out of 9 conference games and are up against one of the worst defenses in the conference. Marquette has also not been that good on defense this season. They are last in the Big East and have been really bad their last four games. Last season all three games between these teams played over and with this one being bet 7.5pts off from the opener and I think the over is worth a look here.
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The Wildcats are the #3 team in the nation in offense efficiency and they are averaging 75 ppg in conference play. The last four games against Providence the Wildcats have averaged 75.5 ppg. I don’t think Providence is that inept on offense that they put up under 60 pts tonight. They have scored at least 60 in the last nine games against Villanova and have scored at an offense efficiency of 1.00 or better in 7 out of the last 8 games. Providence conference games are averaging 142.8 ppg and Villanova conference games are averaging 139.4 ppg. I think when both teams average a good amount more than the total in these conference games it bodes well for the over in these situations.
The Dragons defense has been non-existent the last two games and pretty much have played no defense all year. They are allowing opponents to score an average of 85.3 pts in conference games. Over there last eight games opponents have averaged 87.5 pts including a game where Delaware only scored 60. Towson games have gone over 5 out of the last 6 and their offense has been much better lately scoring with an offense efficiency of 1.12 over these six games. You got to think the good offense continues here against the worst defense in the CAA. On offense Drexel has been fairly consistent scoring over 70pts in their last nine games.
Not sure why the over has taken so much money on this game. Neither of these offenses are that good. YSU is 7th in the conference and Oakland is 8th. Overall for the entire season kenpom has each teams offense is rated in the lower half. YSU defense isn't that good but Oakland’s has been very good all season. In conference games Oakland has held opponents to an OE of well under 1.00. Oakland conference games are averaging 144.9 total points and YSU conference totals averaging 153.1 points. These teams have combined to played 20 conference games and only 3 have gone over 163 total points.
882 Monmouth UNDER 138.5
Kenpom has St. Peter’s rated #345 in tempo and their last six games have been their slowest paced games of the season. They are averaging just over 120 total possessions. St. Peter’s also has the best defense in the MAAC with a defense efficiency of 0.96. The game earlier this season was played at a fast pace but none of the previous six games between this teams was played all that fast. The previous seven games between these teams had totals of 132, 128, 130, 121, 104, 112, 111 for regulation time. Throw out the overtime scoring and the overs would have gone 1-6 during these seven previous games.
2/1 Start 36-23
2/1
1-2 Marq Lose, Ucla Win Vill Lose
Could be because you added Villanova Late.
2/2 Drexel Win Youngstown Lose
OT, I have the same record 38-26. Helmut, Thank You for sharing.
ok
i will fix it
555 Louisiana Lafayette OVER 156
589 William & Mary OVER 151.5
678 Texas El Paso UNDER 131
727 Fort Wayne OVER 157.5
526 Virginia UNDER 125.5
I don’t understand the overnight money moving this total 6pts higher. Louisville has gone on a little scoring streak here their last three games but that has come against the two worst defenses in the ACC and Boston Colleges is also near the bottom. Both these teams defenses are very good. Within the conference Louisville is #1 and Virginia is #2. Overall this season Louisville is #1 and Virginia is #3. I don’t expect the pace to be any different than any of the previous five games with it probably ending around 120 total possessions. The first game this season between these teams had a closing total of 118 and here we get a total that is 8pts higher and Snider (LOU) is out this game. The last five games between these teams played to final totals of 114, 114, 110, 116, 99.
542 St. Peter’s UNDER 137.5
Got to go back and try another Peacocks game here under again. Much of the rational as the last game still applies. The Peacocks are the best MAAC team in defense efficiency. Despite playing a fast paced team in Monmouth last game their tempo has dropped from #345 to #347 in nation. The last eight games between these teams played to regulation time totals of 118, 123, 124, 117, 130, 149, 122, 127. Throw out those first two conference games in early December and the last 11 Peacock conference games have averaged 125.6 total pts and many of these opponents play faster than Canisius.
544 Oklahoma St. UNDER 148.5
574 UC Irvine UNDER 133
736 Middle Tennessee UNDER 121
744 Texas El Paso UNDER 136
653 Stanford OVER 152
659 East Carolina OVER 129
684 Cal St. Northridge UNDER 147
858 Virginia Tech UNDER 133
558 Northern Iowa UNDER 123.5
624 UC Santa Barbara UNDER 140
646 Marquette UNDER 153.5
890 Toledo UNDER 174
550 Oklahoma St. UNDER 150
613 LSU OVER 150
664 San Diego UNDER 128
756 Army UNDER 130.5
596 Troy UNDER 142
702 Tennessee Martin UNDER 137.5
I changed it
I bet Martin at a better number but I think it was 137.5 when I posted
530 Toledo UNDER 147
816 Utah Valley UNDER 141.5