The Monty Hall Problem
buckeyes
Senior Member
Came across this today. Very interesting, curious to what you guys think?
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THE MONTY HALL PROBLEM: George is on a game show, and he has to pick one of three doors. There's a car behind one of them and goats behind the other two. He picks door number one. The host, who knows what's behind all the doors, opens door number two, revealing a goat. He then says to George, "I'll let you switch doors if you want." Should George stick with door number one or switch to door number three?
The correct answer is to switch to door number three. -Submitted by Andrew Stein
To the average person (and many academics, originally), it seems obvious that switching should make no difference for George's odds. The car is equally likely to be behind door one or three, so whichever door George picks, he has a 50-50 chance of getting the car…right?
That's wrong, though. Switching will give him an advantage statistically because now there’s a 2/3 probability that the car is behind door number 2. Check out our explanation below:
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Comments
Correct answer is obviously switching, however this is the first time I've come across this (never been a big fan of game shows). Just thought it be interesting to discuss.
Sorry for the misunderstanding. It was a lame joke on my part about the use of a goat. Nothing wrong with the topic at all.
Didn't even catch that, it went over my head. :laughing:
I literally laughed out loud reading this, good stuff Goats
Me too, but I've got the excuse that the only time I've read BT over the past two days is while sitting in my car charging my phone. 50+ hours now without electricity, and might not be back until Saturday or Sunday. And let me tell you, not much worse in the world than a spoiled 3 year old without TV or his tablet.
Brutal. Hope it's restored sooner than later and you survive/keep your sanity in the meantime.
Sounds like a good excuse to introduce him to watching World Cup in a sports bar.
i understand that Combined doors 2 and 3 have a 2/3 chance of winning.
My question is...with 2 doors available after Monty opens one, is there not a 50/50 chance for each door. We no longer have 3 choices.
With only two choices remain, how is this not a 50/50 prop. Has the sample size change not affected the odds?
Thanks in advance.
It's easier to comprehend if you think of the problem with a lot of doors - let's say 100. You pick one, meaning you've got a 1% chance that the car is behind that door (call this group A) and a 99% chance that it's behind any of the other doors (call this group
I fail to see the humor (assuming these were the noble creatures and not 98 of me which would be far more disturbing than funny).
In all seriousness though, very good explanation to make the situation easier to comprehend.
Only if your posting nick is Golfer.
It just came back about 20 minutes ago (in the nick of time). That would have been a perfect plan (and what I probably would have done), except that I'm umping a Legion double header tonight and have to watch the game late night on DVR. I need to leave in about an hour, so if it wasn't already on, then I would have been SOL and had to just check the score on my phone tonight after it was over.
Glad you got your power back. The rest of your post just shows a serious lack of priorities though. Bad enough you're not watching the US live, but you're also going to miss out on at least half of the best game of the tourney.
Viva la France!
Yea, I'm kinda regretting it right now and didn't plan ahead well enough when I made my schedule a month ago. This first 30 minutes has been awesome.
Minus the ref, great first half.
Why did they schedule a game opposite a Copa America quarterfinals
Good question. Why does FIFA do half the shit they do?