Q&A w/ sports bettor who shifted to DFS
Admin
Administrator
Just wanted to bring to everyone's attention a good thread at DailyFantasyTalk, including a few questions asked from a sports bettor's perspective. The DFS pro, Srn828, got his start in sports betting.
We think you'll find it to be a good read regardless of your interest in Daily Fantasy.
Click here for the thread. A few sample questions below.
Also, just a note, but your current BT username and password will also work at the new DFT forum if you were interested in posting there.
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Q: Do you think a successful sports bettor, someone who derives at least half of their annual income from betting, will find success playing DFS? Or, in simpler terms, do you think being a skillful sports bettor translates in any way to DFS?
A: Simply put, yes. While there are differences and certainly no guarantees, I expect there would be a strong positive correlation between those that are +EV in the sports market and those that are +EV in the DFS market. It is also no small coincidence that many top DFS players were successful poker players. The skills do correlate.
The similarity between being successful at the sports betting market and DFS is accurately spotting pricing inefficiencies. It is, of course, that much more similar to the proposition market; however, that said, the major difference is the static pricing in DFS. In DFS, the salaries for players are set a day prior in the NBA and almost a week prior in the NFL. Since these player salaries do not change until the contest results, you will see huge inaccuracies due to information that comes out through the course of the week or day. This is much more the case in a sport like basketball where, during the regular season at least, you will have different players missing games due to nagging injuries or rest. This creates significant opportunities to find pricing inaccuracies and maximize the fantasy points scored per dollar spent.
Q: In your estimation, what win percentage do you think the best DFS players (the top 5%) hit in heads up games?
A: This is very dependent upon what dollar level you are playing at. It is not as analogous to sports betting where you are trying to beat the house at a given line; instead, you are trying to beat players of vastly varying skill levels. Like poker, you will generally see squarer action at lower dollar levels. At the $1 level, I can have a long-term win percentage well north of 70%.
That edge will definitely decrease the higher the stakes (the rake will also get lower once you go to higher dollar games). Sites will also take measures to dissuade better players from playing at the lower levels in an attempt to protect the ecosystem. Such measures might include matchup blockers, contest entry limits, dollar entry limits, and not allowing for automation in entries.
Therefore, a player must determine not only the right level of total action but also how to spread that action. The general rule of thumb will be to play the lower dollar levels as much as possible.
We think you'll find it to be a good read regardless of your interest in Daily Fantasy.
Click here for the thread. A few sample questions below.
Also, just a note, but your current BT username and password will also work at the new DFT forum if you were interested in posting there.
_______
Q: Do you think a successful sports bettor, someone who derives at least half of their annual income from betting, will find success playing DFS? Or, in simpler terms, do you think being a skillful sports bettor translates in any way to DFS?
A: Simply put, yes. While there are differences and certainly no guarantees, I expect there would be a strong positive correlation between those that are +EV in the sports market and those that are +EV in the DFS market. It is also no small coincidence that many top DFS players were successful poker players. The skills do correlate.
The similarity between being successful at the sports betting market and DFS is accurately spotting pricing inefficiencies. It is, of course, that much more similar to the proposition market; however, that said, the major difference is the static pricing in DFS. In DFS, the salaries for players are set a day prior in the NBA and almost a week prior in the NFL. Since these player salaries do not change until the contest results, you will see huge inaccuracies due to information that comes out through the course of the week or day. This is much more the case in a sport like basketball where, during the regular season at least, you will have different players missing games due to nagging injuries or rest. This creates significant opportunities to find pricing inaccuracies and maximize the fantasy points scored per dollar spent.
Q: In your estimation, what win percentage do you think the best DFS players (the top 5%) hit in heads up games?
A: This is very dependent upon what dollar level you are playing at. It is not as analogous to sports betting where you are trying to beat the house at a given line; instead, you are trying to beat players of vastly varying skill levels. Like poker, you will generally see squarer action at lower dollar levels. At the $1 level, I can have a long-term win percentage well north of 70%.
That edge will definitely decrease the higher the stakes (the rake will also get lower once you go to higher dollar games). Sites will also take measures to dissuade better players from playing at the lower levels in an attempt to protect the ecosystem. Such measures might include matchup blockers, contest entry limits, dollar entry limits, and not allowing for automation in entries.
Therefore, a player must determine not only the right level of total action but also how to spread that action. The general rule of thumb will be to play the lower dollar levels as much as possible.