Betting Talk

Let downs and bounce backs

TheRebTheReb Senior Member
edited October 2014 in Sports Betting
What a week that was.....so much so that it leaves quite a few interesting games and spots for the week to come. Figured I would lay them out in one thread and get other's thoughts, but here is my take fwiw...for ease purposes I just copied it in as possible bet entry so it would bring them up in one screen, these would be my "leans" so disregard the juice as these are sides based on the current numbers that show at the time of post.

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [112] OKLAHOMA -14½-110
Rivalry game yes, but believe this won't be close as Sooners get back on the wagon vs. an offensively challenged Texas squad

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [114] PURDUE +23-110
Nice win for Sparty vs. the Huskers but a lot of points on the road to lay to a Boilermaker team that can stay within an attainable backdoor number against a team that will be happy to just leave with a conference road win

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [116] MINNESOTA U -3-105
Nice win for the Wildcats vs. the Badgers, now that they have the attention let down spot here IMO

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [148] BAYLOR -10-110
Baylor took care of business in their look ahead spot, TCU did as well but tough task emotionally to get up for this one...look for Baylor to make a statement game on this one

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [153] AUBURN -3-105
The elite team of the SEC comes through as Auburn is a whole different animal than what TAM was

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [159] ALABAMA -9½-110
Will look for 'Bama to bounce back vs. Hogs....Saban said they had some work to do this week lol

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [165] OREGON -3-110
two teams that are reeling after tough losses, don't think the Bruins D will be able to get them the cover

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [168] ARIZONA U +2½-110
Normally you would think this is the spot for the Trojans, but I believe this AZ team is for real as (Bishop Gorman's) Anu's confidence is growing after a tough venue road win...should be a real close one so like this one the least out of all situations

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [176] NOTRE DAME -16½-105
Irish should roll in this as Tarheels have absolutely no defense....big number day for Golson

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [188] TEXAS A&M -3-105
Aggies back at home and Ole Miss coming off a historic program win...will lean with the Aggie's here

STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [192] SOUTH FLORIDA +14-105
S Fla may get the outright win here, they have a ground game and their D was efficient enough vs. a Terrapin squad that offensively is similar to the Pirates, the Pirates D is suspect as the lowly Mustangs showed this past week.

Those are my takes, open for some of the conference followers opinions if concur or disagree and why, have a great week all!

Comments

  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Its been a real long time since we got to bet on a Oregon game with a line this low. It kinda looks like a trap to me. This Oregon team not able to run the ball like some of the previous versions. When they were putting up those big margin victories they were rushing for 300, 400 ypg. This season they only cracked 200 twice, once against Wyoming and the other against South Dakota. If they can't run the ball against UCLA I gotta a feeling its going to be another long night for them.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Very bad situation for NDU imo. Coming off the big win against Stanford, it will be tough for them to get up for a bad UNC team, they also have a date next week against FSU, Kelly will have his work cut out for him trying to get his boys emotionally ready this week. Also, I'm not sold on the Irish just yet, so far they've beaten Rice, Michigan, Purdue, and needed a fourth down TD to beat Stanford. TBH, these are the types of games I love to play, a classic letdown lookahead spot. As bad as the Heels are, I'll be on them, and the fact that they are as bad as they are only means they'll get even less attention from NDU.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    I very rarely play a favorite, but this week I'll be on A&M minus the points. Like you mentioned a historic win for Ole Miss, coupled with the Aggies losing to Miss St, puts A&M in a very favorable position. I'm on the Aggies, (unless Katy Perry is on Miss, then I'll probably lay off)
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    The USC-Zona game is interesting. USC is 3-2 and ranked 28th, Arizona is 5-0 and ranked 10th, yet the Trojans are laying 2.5 on the road, hmmm
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    kane wrote: »
    Very bad situation for NDU imo. Coming off the big win against Stanford, it will be tough for them to get up for a bad UNC team, they also have a date next week against FSU, Kelly will have his work cut out for him trying to get his boys emotionally ready this week. Also, I'm not sold on the Irish just yet, so far they've beaten Rice, Michigan, Purdue, and needed a fourth down TD to beat Stanford. TBH, these are the types of games I love to play, a classic letdown lookahead spot. As bad as the Heels are, I'll be on them, and the fact that they are as bad as they are only means they'll get even less attention from NDU.

    I forgot, the Irish also beat Syracuse.
  • RonyBallgameRonyBallgame Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    If I had to make one selection this year, it would be A&M -3 or less to beat Ole Miss at home.
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Baylor - 10, my biggest play
    Good talking to you REB
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    helmut wrote: »
    Its been a real long time since we got to bet on a Oregon game with a line this low. It kinda looks like a trap to me. This Oregon team not able to run the ball like some of the previous versions. When they were putting up those big margin victories they were rushing for 300, 400 ypg. This season they only cracked 200 twice, once against Wyoming and the other against South Dakota. If they can't run the ball against UCLA I gotta a feeling its going to be another long night for them.

    Could you elaborate on what you mean by "trap"?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Could you elaborate on what you mean by "trap"?

    LOL, I've been waiting for you because I'm curious also.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Just based on the fact Oregon has always been a double digit favorite and now only have to give away 3.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Thank you Ron, for teaching me about across the street. I don't have to deal with the Dr. H / Kahuna crap there!
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited October 2014
    Kahuna and Dr. H, enough already.

    Kahuna, please stop popping into every thread Dr. H posts in just to start your nonsense.

    Dr. H, I know it's not in your nature, but please just ignore him or report his posts.

    I'm beyond tired of dealing with this.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Relax Coop and take a nice autumn ride up the NYS Thurway when the leaves start changing. Stop in the Turning Stone Casino and have an O'Dools. Pretend it's Heinekin:) Last I knew, the tribe wasn't permitted to serve real stuff.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Goats wrote: »
    Kahuna and Dr. H, enough already.

    Kahuna, please stop popping into every thread Dr. H posts in just to start your nonsense.

    Dr. H, I know it's not in your nature, but please just ignore him or report his posts.

    I'm beyond tired of dealing with this.

    That reminds me, hey Goats, Contrarian says hi
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    H,
    I say this because I respect you but as time continues to pass you're acting more and more like the Jeff you were prior to the name change. Quit feeding into the BS and post positive/informational stuff. Your knowledge can be beneficial to many.
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Relax Coop and take a nice autumn ride up the NYS Thurway when the leaves start changing. Stop in the Turning Stone Casino and have an O'Dools. Pretend it's Heinekin:) Last I knew, the tribe wasn't permitted to serve real stuff.

    Lol, ironic on so many counts. Going upstate this weekend to take my kid pumpkin and apple picking, I think somewhere around Warwick? Near exit 17 on the thruway, that much I know. And I know all to well about turning stone, started going when I was 18 up at college in Albany. Idk if they serve alcohol, but it was a great way to kill a Wednesday night, only about 80 minutes from school and they sold cheap cigarettes.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    TheReb wrote: »
    What a week that was.....so much so that it leaves quite a few interesting games and spots for the week to come. Figured I would lay them out in one thread and get other's thoughts, but here is my take fwiw...for ease purposes I just copied it in as possible bet entry so it would bring them up in one screen, these would be my "leans" so disregard the juice as these are sides based on the current numbers that show at the time of post.

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [112] OKLAHOMA -14½-110
    Rivalry game yes, but believe this won't be close as Sooners get back on the wagon vs. an offensively challenged Texas squad

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [114] PURDUE +23-110
    Nice win for Sparty vs. the Huskers but a lot of points on the road to lay to a Boilermaker team that can stay within an attainable backdoor number against a team that will be happy to just leave with a conference road win

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [116] MINNESOTA U -3-105
    Nice win for the Wildcats vs. the Badgers, now that they have the attention let down spot here IMO

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [148] BAYLOR -10-110
    Baylor took care of business in their look ahead spot, TCU did as well but tough task emotionally to get up for this one...look for Baylor to make a statement game on this one

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [153] AUBURN -3-105
    The elite team of the SEC comes through as Auburn is a whole different animal than what TAM was

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [159] ALABAMA -9½-110
    Will look for 'Bama to bounce back vs. Hogs....Saban said they had some work to do this week lol

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [165] OREGON -3-110
    two teams that are reeling after tough losses, don't think the Bruins D will be able to get them the cover

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [168] ARIZONA U +2½-110
    Normally you would think this is the spot for the Trojans, but I believe this AZ team is for real as (Bishop Gorman's) Anu's confidence is growing after a tough venue road win...should be a real close one so like this one the least out of all situations

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [176] NOTRE DAME -16½-105
    Irish should roll in this as Tarheels have absolutely no defense....big number day for Golson

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [188] TEXAS A&M -3-105
    Aggies back at home and Ole Miss coming off a historic program win...will lean with the Aggie's here

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [192] SOUTH FLORIDA +14-105
    S Fla may get the outright win here, they have a ground game and their D was efficient enough vs. a Terrapin squad that offensively is similar to the Pirates, the Pirates D is suspect as the lowly Mustangs showed this past week.

    Those are my takes, open for some of the conference followers opinions if concur or disagree and why, have a great week all!

    Now that we got all the romper room (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romper_Room go down to a typical episode section and you'll understand especially with Goats having to play Mr. Don'tbee) stuff out of the way....lets look at where some of the previous lines have gone to and does the line value make you rethink what you were liking or just reinforce your convictions? I will highlight the biggest changes:

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [112] OKLAHOMA -14½-110

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [114] PURDUE +20½-110 (almost tempting to take the other side after dropping under 3TD's)

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [116] MINNESOTA U -4-115

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [148] BAYLOR -7½-110 (market really disagrees with the original line on this one Okie)

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [153] AUBURN -3-105

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [159] ALABAMA -10-110

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [165] OREGON -1½-115 (market agrees with your assessment Helmut, so now a "bear trap" instead of a "mouse trap"? ;)

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [168] ARIZONA U +2½-105

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [176] NOTRE DAME -17-110

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [188] TEXAS A&M -2-110 (kane, if you liked it before you must love it now right? or does the move make you rethink? :confused:)

    STRAIGHT BET Oct 11 CFB [192] SOUTH FLORIDA +15-105
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    I'm still on A&M, it's a great spot to fade Ole Miss, and I like that the Aggies lost last week as well. If Missy shows up and wins, I'll tip my cap to Freeze and move on. BTW, how long before we hear about the Miss program being investigated by the NCAA
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    I'm with you on A&M also kane but does anyone keep track of an old trend being unranked teams (USC) Favorite over a ranked team.
  • TheRebTheReb Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I'm with you on A&M also kane but does anyone keep track of an old trend being unranked teams (USC) Favorite over a ranked team.

    same idea goes for the lower ranked team A&M (13th) being favored over Ole Miss (3rd) ;)
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I'm with you on A&M also kane but does anyone keep track of an old trend being unranked teams (USC) Favorite over a ranked team.

    It looks like Dr Bob was responsible for the move on Miss. Sorry OT, I don't keep track of that angle. Years ago I used to play that angle in college hoops, but I stopped doing that. That USC line is a bit of a head scratcher though.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    TheReb wrote: »
    same idea goes for the lower ranked team A&M (13th) being favored over Ole Miss (3rd) ;)

    No sorry that's not the same.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    kane wrote: »
    It looks like Dr Bob was responsible for the move on Miss. Sorry OT, I don't keep track of that angle. Years ago I used to play that angle in college hoops, but I stopped doing that. That USC line is a bit of a head scratcher though.

    Good Match-ups this week. LSU road Favorite over Florida?????

    How about Auburn,Alabama, A&M,TCU and maybe an SB Fav ULM have to wait for the man on that one.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Good Match-ups this week. LSU road Favorite over Florida?????

    How about Auburn,Alabama, A&M,TCU and maybe an SB Fav ULM have to wait for the man on that one.

    I'm on Monroe, I hope he agrees with me
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