Regular Season NFL 2014
Obi One
Senior Member
Let's see what kind of results and CLV I can get on these plays. All plays for a quarter of a unit. Too many uncertainties between now and the start of the regular season to bet these at bigger units. These are plays on teams I currently believe to be undervalued (CLE, JAX, BAL, MIA and NYG) or to be overvalued (SEA, PHI, NE and CAR). What I actually would like to see is what the market will be thinking of these teams after the pre-season and how they actually perform in week 1. This will be a good test to see whether the markets agree with my assumptions.
Week 1 sides
0.25u Green Bay +5.5 vs SEA
0.25u Cleveland +5 vs PIT
0.25u Jacksonville +11 vs PHI
0.25u Baltimore -2.5 vs CIN
0.25u Miami +3.5 vs NE
0.25u Tampa Bay +1.5 vs CAR
0.25u NY Giants +4 vs DET
Week 1 Totals
0.25u NE/MIA U47
0.25u JAX/PHI U51.5
Week 1 sides
0.25u Green Bay +5.5 vs SEA
0.25u Cleveland +5 vs PIT
0.25u Jacksonville +11 vs PHI
0.25u Baltimore -2.5 vs CIN
0.25u Miami +3.5 vs NE
0.25u Tampa Bay +1.5 vs CAR
0.25u NY Giants +4 vs DET
Week 1 Totals
0.25u NE/MIA U47
0.25u JAX/PHI U51.5
Comments
Good luck, always look at your stuff. Hope the NBA project is coming along.
Thanks H.
I believe I will be able to crack that 56% nut this season in the NFL. I have the scraping and the calculations automated now, so I don't have to do it manually anymore. Should leave me with enough time to do the NFL and NBA side-by-side till the end of the season. After reading some of the posts by TalkingPractice on here and on his blog, I just know that I still have a long way to go before I reach those levels. Keeping at it day by day. Congrats on a great season in MLB. It's nice to see someone reap the results of hard work!
BIG DIFFERENCE from stating it in the beginning of a post or just claiming it after a year of losses.
(TOUT 101)
BTW how are you Johnny Detroit ?
We just had a huge gang-on-gang shooting here on the island (with 6 innocent victims) and a couple of days later the Russian separatists dropped 300 innocent people (200 Dutch) from the sky.
I couldn't care less about your beef with H right now.
Thanks for understanding.
Too bad it's these kind of things that make you rethink what's actually really important in life. There were 80 kids aboard as the school vacations had just started.
Opened and loaded an account at BOL especially for this as there's a huge +EV on this bet in my opinion. Under their NFL futures, you can find the option to bet 'NFL Total Points'. Here you'll find that they have Denver at 'over 495.5 points' at +175. In my opinion the only thing that can derail this bet is an injury to Peyton Manning. Last year Denver scored 606 points and I don't see a reason for them to have a 106 point drop off. Actually the numbers suggest that Denver can equal the same output again.
- Peyton is a QB who commits few turnovers and has historically converted a high percentage of his 3rd downs. Thus drives continue and points will be scored.
- He still has a lot of weapons, so no drop-off in personnel there.
- Denver's TO differential in 2013 was 0 (zero). With a better defense they'll easily make it +10 or better this year. Teams will have to throw to keep pace on the scoreboard. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are ballhawks who can take advantage. As their number of possessions go up so will the scoring.
- They had the fifth most penalty yards (T-5th), something which will hopefully go down (no guarantees, but it will be hard to get worse here)
Just thought I'd share. Will not be counted towards my record. As I've only seen it at BOL so far. Good Luck.
0.5u NFLX 242 NYG/BUF U37 -115
1u NFLX 252 NYJ -3 vs IND -115
1u NFLX 253 NE/WSH O37
Hope you don't mind my comments in your thread and the best of luck this NFL season where I need help the most.
0.2u Tennessee Titans to win AFC +5000
- Denver and New England are the clear favourites here. I do believe that the Titans can make it to the play-offs if Ray Horton can improve the defense.
0.5u Baltimore Ravens to win AFC +1450
- The Ravens have a sound and talented team on both sides of the ball. One of the strongest teams at home. That alone should be good for a minimum of 6 wins.
1u Green Bay Packers to win NFC +660
- A healthy Rodgers and an improved defense should be able to go deep in the playoffs. I like the value here. I can see them compete for best record in the league.
0.3u New York Giants to win NFC +2500
- Much improved team over the final 6 weeks of last season. Might not be pretty in the regular season, but always dangerous if they can get to the playoffs
0.2u Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win NFC +3300
- One of the teams that can surprise this year. Value at this number.
I'll keep track during the season, to see whether these numbers move in my favour or against me.
This is mostly a play on the NYG secondary being able to keep a thin Buffalo team at bay and against the NY quarterbacks doing any damage. It's a big drop-off after Eli in my opinion.
Definitely don't mind OT. I hope we can make it a good season
0.5u ARZ o7.5 -150
0.5u ATL u8.5 -130
0.5u BAL o8.5 +104
0.5u DEN o11.5 +111
0.5u GB o10.5 +125
0.5u NYG o8 +112
0.5u TB o7 -117
0.5u TEN o7 -131
FYI. Billy Walters was on ARZ ov, CAR un, ATL un, BUF ov, KC un. This doesn't mean they were the only ones he played. These are the only ones I know of. But it might explain why the juice is so high on those right now.
A few years back I played NE to win their division and laid some pretty big wood, as I was putting the bet in I said to myself, the only way I lose this is if Brady goes down and is out for the season. Sure enough that's exactly what happened, the Dolphins won the AFC East that year, I think it might be the only time during the Brady era that they didn't win their division. Anyway, reading the part you wrote about the play losing only if Manning gets hurt reminded me of my bet. GL this year Obi
Denver doesn't play Tennessee this year, so no chance of Bernard Pollard screwing things up again
BAL PK -120 vs SF
- SF with less depth than previous years and Baltimore with my favourite preseason QB. Tyrod Taylor!
SD -3 +100 vs DAL
- Romo won't play. Dallas defense is still in shambles.
278 PIT/NYG U36.5
- Both teams with depth at defense. Both teams with weak back-up QB group. Was hoping for a 37 but doesn't seem like it will get there.
1u NE/WAS 1H O20 -105 (5D)
1.5u NE TT O18.5 (5D)
1u 277 PIT +3 vs NYG
1u 280 TEN -1 -120 vs GB
1u 406 NO -3.5 vs TEN -105
1u 415 BAL +1 vs DAL -110
1u 425 ARI +3 vs MIN +100
1u 413 NYG/INDY O41 -110
1u 424 HOU -3 vs ATL +100
1u 1404 NE 1H -1.5 vs PHI
1u 407 DET/OAK over 40 -110
1u 408 OAK -3 vs DET
1u 258 NYG/NYJ U43 -110
1u 266 MIA -3.5 vs DAL -105 (Buy the hook if u want to, I like it like this.)
1u 260 GB -7 vs OAK
1u 267 TEN +3 @ ATL
1u 278 DEN -7 vs HOU
1u 282 ARI -2 vs CIN
Barring an injury to Peyton Manning, that offense is going to average 35+ points again. The reason why I believe that they can be scary good is because they managed to have a turnover differential of zero for the full season in 2013. The offense committed 26 turnovers and the defense recovered 26 from their opponents. Both are just about average in their respective categories. Seattle +20, KC +18, Indy +13, Philadelphia +12 and SF +12 led the turnover differential list of last season. Can you imagine the offense committing less turnovers while their revamped defense forces and recovers more than last year? Can you imagine Manning's offense having the ball more often than last year? If this happens, I predict the Broncos will cover 4 out of their first 5 games ATS, before the value erodes and the spreads get really out of hand.
Just a heads up, it's some things I noticed while looking for value.
And then you get this form FiveThirtyEight writer Chase Stuart.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-the-denver-broncos-and-seattle-seahawks-possibly-be-as-good-as-they-were-last-year/
1u NFLX 281 CIN/ARI O42
1u 472 NYJ -4.5 vs OAK
- Schaub is not inspiring any confidence and the talent level on this team is low. With the Jets DL in optima forma, Schaub will not have much time to threw. Let's hope Geno Smith plays a turnover free game for the Jets.
1u 473 CIN/BAL O42.5
- Both team's offences are improved. Combine this with whistle happy refs and this one should go over. Maybe not by much, but the over has the highest chance of hitting imo.
1u 478 HOU -3 vs WAS (+105)
- From what I've seen this preseason, RGIII still is the turnover-prone and slightly indecisive QB from last year. That does not bode well for him as probably the best DL in the league will be opposite him. Trusting Bill O'brien to come up with a good offensive game plan. This is mostly a play on Houston's DL pressuring RGIII often.
1u 484 CAR/TB U39.5
- Cam Newton with the injury, TB with the shutdown defense. Ugly game ahead.
Hey Obi, interesting article. The writer thinks that between Seattle's pass defense and Denver's passing offense, the Seahawks have a better chance to duplicate last season's results. He makes some very good points, but something he failed to mention was the new defensive holding calls that the refs are making. I guess we won't know until some games have been played how this will affect teams, but this rule surely helps Denver, while hurting Seattle. After reading this, are you still just as high on the Broncos? Also, I find it interesting with all the high flying passing attacks we see nowadays, that he ranks Dan Marino's 1984 season as the best passing offense in history. I can't even imagine the numbers Marino would put up if he was playing in today's NFL.
There are 2 reasons why I don't like the article: First is the point you mentioned above, and second is the difference in TO-differential from last year. While it is included in the way he calculates his indices, I still can't fathom Denver doing worse (with a better and healthier defense) and Seattle doing better (while a couple of good players have left). I believe the Denver offense will be just fine as long as Manning is running the show. The reason why I'm high on them is because there's a lot of room for improvement on the defensive side. We'll see soon enough, just a week left for the season to start
I believe the Denver offense will be just fine as long as a healthy Manning is running the show. The reason why I'm high on them is because there's a lot of room for improvement on the defensive side when i look at last year's numbers. We'll see soon enough, just a week left for the season to start
Will let this one ride for now, but play was mostly against Schaub. Carr is an unknown. Dangerous, he might be.