Hot Streaks
Ronbets
Senior Member
I stumbled upon this across the street amongst the cat litter. Didn't give much credence until I read the researchers college home base. Dunno. Here it is.
But according to newer research such as a working study conducted by Brett Green, an assistant professor at California-Berkeleys business school, and Jeffrey Zwiebel, a finance professor at Stanford there is evidence that hot streaks exist.
As a sports fan, Zwiebel was motivated to address the claims of older studies and their statistical flaws. He believed baseball was different than basketball because of the breadth of data and nature of the sport. In basketball, for example, a hot shooter may draw a double team by the opposing defense; thats not possible in baseball.
Green and Zwiebel studied two million MLB at-bats from 2000 to 2011. They neutralized for the abilities of the hitter and pitchers such as lefty-on-lefty matchups and stadium sizes and focused on 10 major statistical categories, such as batting averages, home run percentages and strikeout rates.
They found that a hitters past 25 at-bats were a significant predictor of his next at-bat. When a player is hot, they found his expected on-base percentage to be 25 to 30 points higher than it would if he were cold. Home run rates jumped 30 percent and strikeout rates dropped. For pitchers in hot streaks, future performance was improved, too.
The effect is fairly large, Zwiebel said. Its highly significant not just in the statistical sense but the strategic sense. The effect is large enough where it makes sense for managers to sit a cold hitter or play a hot hitter, or perhaps the strategical adjustments for a pitcher to pitch around a hot hitter.
Another recent basketball study presented this spring by Andrew Bocskocsky, John Ezekowitz and Carolyn Stein of Harvard found that hot-shooting players were 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points more likely to hit their next shot, a small but noticeable difference. Recent studies like these two finally found evidence for a belief that players have long held.
It matters a lot mentally if youve been successful in your last at-bats, said Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Nelson Cruz, who has been one of baseballs hottest hitters all season and is second in the majors with 28 home runs. Your confidence definitely goes up and youre more likely to get a hit in your next at-bat.
The study conducted by Green and Zwiebel, however, stops short of offering explanations. Zwiebel said he believes a players change in hitting is likely a combination of physical and mental factors. Players, too, cant pinpoint reasons. Werth, currently the Nationals hottest hitter, talks about hitting streaks as if they were independent beings that come and go uncontrollably.
If I knew the answer to that, Id be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, he said. Whats that Yogi Berra saying? The game is 90 percent half mental. Its pretty accurate. It doesnt make any sense. If you can find it and hold on to it, you can have a really good year or career. Its those guys that are able to harness it for long periods of time and not fall into the pitfalls of slumps. If you do go into a slump, you come out of it quicker. Thats the name of the game: trying to hold on to it for as long as possible. Its not easy.
Werth knows from personal experience that hitting can turn in either direction quickly. After a solid May, he went cold in June, hitting .212 with only six extra-base hits. Through the slump, Werth still felt good. Earlier this month, he made a minor adjustment standing taller in the batters box, which allowed him to see pitches better and make his swing more compact and he took off.
Werth is hitting .375 with 12 extra-base hits in July. Though hes played just 11 games, hes already hit six home runs, more than he hit in April, May or June. So what changed?
That whole thing happens in the fraction of a second when the ball leaves the pitchers hand until it hits your bat, Werth said. It doesnt happen for a very long time but when youre locked in that instant, youre able to like, when youre going good, the universe slows down. The earth stops spinning. The 100 miles an hour is not 100 miles an hour. Its that ability to make that small little window be a lot longer.
There is undoubtedly a major physical component to hitting. If a player is injured or even slightly weakened or tired, his swing in compromised. Even when healthy, bad habits can deteriorate a players swing. But imagine the player is fully healthy and his swing is normal; players say the frame of mind is just as important, perhaps more.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...fc2_story.html
But according to newer research such as a working study conducted by Brett Green, an assistant professor at California-Berkeleys business school, and Jeffrey Zwiebel, a finance professor at Stanford there is evidence that hot streaks exist.
As a sports fan, Zwiebel was motivated to address the claims of older studies and their statistical flaws. He believed baseball was different than basketball because of the breadth of data and nature of the sport. In basketball, for example, a hot shooter may draw a double team by the opposing defense; thats not possible in baseball.
Green and Zwiebel studied two million MLB at-bats from 2000 to 2011. They neutralized for the abilities of the hitter and pitchers such as lefty-on-lefty matchups and stadium sizes and focused on 10 major statistical categories, such as batting averages, home run percentages and strikeout rates.
They found that a hitters past 25 at-bats were a significant predictor of his next at-bat. When a player is hot, they found his expected on-base percentage to be 25 to 30 points higher than it would if he were cold. Home run rates jumped 30 percent and strikeout rates dropped. For pitchers in hot streaks, future performance was improved, too.
The effect is fairly large, Zwiebel said. Its highly significant not just in the statistical sense but the strategic sense. The effect is large enough where it makes sense for managers to sit a cold hitter or play a hot hitter, or perhaps the strategical adjustments for a pitcher to pitch around a hot hitter.
Another recent basketball study presented this spring by Andrew Bocskocsky, John Ezekowitz and Carolyn Stein of Harvard found that hot-shooting players were 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points more likely to hit their next shot, a small but noticeable difference. Recent studies like these two finally found evidence for a belief that players have long held.
It matters a lot mentally if youve been successful in your last at-bats, said Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Nelson Cruz, who has been one of baseballs hottest hitters all season and is second in the majors with 28 home runs. Your confidence definitely goes up and youre more likely to get a hit in your next at-bat.
The study conducted by Green and Zwiebel, however, stops short of offering explanations. Zwiebel said he believes a players change in hitting is likely a combination of physical and mental factors. Players, too, cant pinpoint reasons. Werth, currently the Nationals hottest hitter, talks about hitting streaks as if they were independent beings that come and go uncontrollably.
If I knew the answer to that, Id be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, he said. Whats that Yogi Berra saying? The game is 90 percent half mental. Its pretty accurate. It doesnt make any sense. If you can find it and hold on to it, you can have a really good year or career. Its those guys that are able to harness it for long periods of time and not fall into the pitfalls of slumps. If you do go into a slump, you come out of it quicker. Thats the name of the game: trying to hold on to it for as long as possible. Its not easy.
Werth knows from personal experience that hitting can turn in either direction quickly. After a solid May, he went cold in June, hitting .212 with only six extra-base hits. Through the slump, Werth still felt good. Earlier this month, he made a minor adjustment standing taller in the batters box, which allowed him to see pitches better and make his swing more compact and he took off.
Werth is hitting .375 with 12 extra-base hits in July. Though hes played just 11 games, hes already hit six home runs, more than he hit in April, May or June. So what changed?
That whole thing happens in the fraction of a second when the ball leaves the pitchers hand until it hits your bat, Werth said. It doesnt happen for a very long time but when youre locked in that instant, youre able to like, when youre going good, the universe slows down. The earth stops spinning. The 100 miles an hour is not 100 miles an hour. Its that ability to make that small little window be a lot longer.
There is undoubtedly a major physical component to hitting. If a player is injured or even slightly weakened or tired, his swing in compromised. Even when healthy, bad habits can deteriorate a players swing. But imagine the player is fully healthy and his swing is normal; players say the frame of mind is just as important, perhaps more.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...fc2_story.html