NBA Closing Line Value
Obi One
Senior Member
I know the importance of CLV. To me there's no arguing against it. My best sport is the NBA and it's the one sport I'm really putting a lot of time in to become a longterm winner. I have seen somebody post the opining line records versus the closing line records for College Basketball, for the NFL and for MLB and in all those sports it's value was proven. However, I haven't seen it for the NBA. And I have to say, if the Pacers can go 3-23 ATS since the all star break, if the Suns can be at 65% ATS in January and continue their succes at a 65% ATS rate till the end of the season, I highly doubt that the NBA market is an efficient market.
My questions are:
- Does anybody have opening line versus closing line records for the NBA?
- Am I seeing it wrong?
- If your an NBA bettor too, what is your opinion.
*please note: this is not a discussion of whether CLV is important or not.
My questions are:
- Does anybody have opening line versus closing line records for the NBA?
- Am I seeing it wrong?
- If your an NBA bettor too, what is your opinion.
*please note: this is not a discussion of whether CLV is important or not.
Comments
Your right it's not efficient. I can't remember any year that it was.
So there might be some thruth to Voulgaris' statement that NBA-bookmakers should post an opening line and leave it there. Static. I remember somebody here on BT quoting him on that sentence. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I rely strongly on my own numbers and if the market goes against me. I most of the time stay with it. So if I liked +3, I really like +4.
Right or wrong that is how I play it.
I see a RMSE of 18.13344 (open), 17.17844 (close) for totals and 11.674 (open), 11.656(close) for pinny open/close
Do you see something different?
He said it, along with all of the other non sense and outright lies that come out of his mouth.
What records did you want to see? Adding 1pt to close on either side of closing NBA spreads will win about 54% of the time.
What would your record be if you could add 1 point to the opening line ?
It should be exactly the same, unless there is a bias in opening lines.
I think you mean add or subtract 1 point from the opener.
No I mean closer. Thus, beat the close.
54% ha .. that is why most syndicates playing the NBA this past year are in
A) in debt to loan sharks
If you beat the close this year on every game you lost.
Thanks for the numbers Durito,
Do you have the ATS numbers for the closers?
Please be patient with me here, what are the RMSE's you posted above saying?
This doesn't make sense, so impossible to respond.
To compare efficiency of closers versus openers we can use the mean square error. So if team a is -3 and wins by 4, thats a difference of 1 ... each difference is squared so negatives don't cancel out the positives. The average difference tells which set of lines was more accurate.
A smaller number is better. The spread # isn't much better but NBA spread openers are pretty sharp so that's not real surprising.
Your #s are flawed and i don't know where you got them from. My RMSE #s are both negative.
If you beat the close on every game YOU LOST.. do u understand English
Thanks for the clarification,
Looking at these numbers one can conclude that:
- the totals are weaker than the spreads,
- the spread opener and closer have a neglectable difference.
Easy guys, didn't want to start a fire. Let's see where the 2 of you can agree on when it comes to the NBA markets. This is not tweeting, so you have more than 140 characters to bring a point across.
So if I had -4 and +6 on a game that closed at 5 did they BOTH LOSE?
Pretty much, I can give you #'s for a few more years in a minute as one is a pretty small sample.
come on man.. really why you stretching that far
What am I stretching. Your statement is nonsense.
If you mean to say: If you bet every game with an x amount move from open to close you finished down. Fine, givie me some #'s and I will test it.
But your statement as it is is absurd. If you had 2pts better than the total close and bet over on every game you went 55%
You seem to know the numbers of some NBA syndicates, are they betting sides mostly or totals? And any verifiable idea how Bob Voulgaris has really been doing this year? I read his most recent blog post and his insight into the game really is something extraordinary. That much knowledge can't be losing bets imho. But I might be wrong off course.
Durito,
Have you ever tried compiling a 'market-power-ranking'. With that I mean: Make a power-ranking based on the spread and their movement alone. Is that something that's possible?
Obi, the syndicates this year mostly got hurt on totals and I have no idea what they where trying to accomplish, but it ended in tears for them.
Bob won, but not as much as last year.
http://statintelligence.blogspot.com/2014/04/updated-nba-market-power-ratings-423.html
Totals:
Unders 155-124-2
Overs 160-98-2
Will do sides later.