TommyL's March 2014 College Hoops Plays
TommyL
Super Moderator
I figured it's time to start posting some plays again for the stretch run. I've still been capping every day (absent a week that I spent in Mexico in mid-February), and I'm not nearly as on-tilt as I was in mid-December (plus I realized that I missed posting plays here). I'll paste my record in here when I have a few minutes.
Plays for Saturday, 3/1
522 Rutgers -4 South Florida
524 Cincinnati/UConn under 124
531 Drexel -1 Northeastern 2 UNITS
533 TCU +15.5 West Virginia
553 Delaware +1 Charleston 1.5 UNITS
563 St Joe's +2 St Bonaventure
576 San Diego +5 BYU
566 UNLV -4 Air Force 1.5 UNITS
586 Syracuse/Virginia under 116
590 Nebraska -8 Northwestern
593 LaSalle -4.5 Fordham
602 Saint Louis/VCU under 134
634 Indiana State -2.5 Northern Iowa
667 Gonzaga +1 Saint Mary's
673 Eastern Washington +5.5 North Dakota 1.5 UNITS
701 Denver +10 North Dakota State
Plays for Saturday, 3/1
522 Rutgers -4 South Florida
524 Cincinnati/UConn under 124
531 Drexel -1 Northeastern 2 UNITS
533 TCU +15.5 West Virginia
553 Delaware +1 Charleston 1.5 UNITS
563 St Joe's +2 St Bonaventure
576 San Diego +5 BYU
566 UNLV -4 Air Force 1.5 UNITS
586 Syracuse/Virginia under 116
590 Nebraska -8 Northwestern
593 LaSalle -4.5 Fordham
602 Saint Louis/VCU under 134
634 Indiana State -2.5 Northern Iowa
667 Gonzaga +1 Saint Mary's
673 Eastern Washington +5.5 North Dakota 1.5 UNITS
701 Denver +10 North Dakota State
Comments
614 Wyoming +3 Boise State
Tommy, I think for UNLV, you mean #577. I had to do a double-take. (JK)
Correct. I had it written down correctly, but apparently couldn't type.
547 Colorado +7 Utah
690 Elon +4 Davidson
I was passing on Colorado unless it made it to 7. I was going to hold out and hope that Elon made it to 4.5, but playing it now. And that should be it for today as they were the last two that I was really looking at. Good luck to everyone.
816 Ohio State/Indiana under 127.5
823 East Carolina +3 Marshall
827 Tulane +5.5 FIU
838 Louisiana-Lafayette -9.5 South Alabama
841 Old Dominion +3 Charlotte 2 UNITS
845 New Mexico -5.5 Nevada
848 Stanford/Arizona under 133.5
854 Siena -6.5 Monmouth 1.5 UNITS
818 St John's -15 DePaul
826 Florida Atlantic +9.5 Southern Miss 1.5 UNITS
834 Penn State +7 Wisconsin
730 North Carolina Central -14 Savannah State
734 Loyola (MD) +3.5 Lafayette 1.5 UNITS
Good luck moving forward and I'm anticipating a great performance from you next season.
They are a team that has torched me all season. I play on them and they play like crap. I play against them and they can't miss anything. It's really been that way for a lot of the SoCon for me this year (I think I've had even less success playing on/against The Citadel).
Plays for Tuesday, 3/4
514 Temple -3 UCF
521 Michigan -2.5 Illinois
533 Creighton/Georgetown over 141.5
539 Virginia Tech +12.5 Maryland
556 Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1.5 Detroit
571 Stetson +14 Florida Gulf Coast
576 USC Upstate -9 North Florida 1.5 UNITS
577 Jacksonville +14.5 Mercer
722 Nebraska/Indiana under 132
729 Louisville -2 SMU
737 Mississippi +8.5 Arkansas
749 St Joe's +3.5 George Washington 1.5 UNITS
753 Purdue +14 Wisconsin
766 California -3 Utah
782 Winthrop -4 Liberty
785 Charleston Southern -5.5 Campbell 2 UNITS
793 Lehigh +7.5 Holy Cross
804 Mount St Mary's -3 St Francis (NY) 1.5 UNITS
Not too much. It obviously wasn't a good thing, but I don't know how much of it was "him" as it seemed to be a lot more about some of his staff.
512 Northwestern E Penn State
516 Cincinnati -4 Memphis
537 UTEP -9.5 UTSA
547 Iowa/Michigan State over 148.5
557 USC/Washington State over 128.5
562 Bradley -2.5 Loyola Chi
578 Rider -3 Monmouth 1.5 UNITS
827 Dartmouth +8.5 Brown
838 Missouri State +1 Illinois State
852 Georgia Southern -5 Furman
854 UNC Greensboro -6 The Citadel 1.5 UNITS
835 Evansville +17.5 Wichita State
516 Florida -9 Kentucky
563 Arizona/Oregon over 141
577 George Washington -8 Fordham
581 Arizona State +1.5 Oregon State
592 George Mason -4.5 Duquesne
602 Brown +8.5 Harvard 1.5 UNITS
625 UNLV +2 Nevada
636 Delaware -8.5 Hofstra
646 Indiana State -3.5 Southern Illinois 2 UNITS
647 San Diego +5 San Francisco
657 Wisconsin Milwaukee +12 Green Bay
692 Vermont -18 New Hampshire
698 Hartford -7.5 Binghamton
706 Robert Morris -10.5 St Francis (PA)
708 Boston University -8 Army 1.5 UNITS
640 Towson -7 James Madison
654 Saint Mary's -6 Pepperdine
822 Michigan State/Ohio State under 130.5
825 Saint Louis +3 UMass
827 LaSalle +8.5 St Joe's
833 Indiana State +12.5 Wichita State
836 Delaware -5.5 Northeastern 1.5 UNITS
854 Purdue -9 Northwestern
862 Coastal Carolina -2.5 Winthrop 1.5 UNITS
865 Vermont -6 Albany 1.5 UNITS
Plays for Monday, 3/10
516 Delaware -4.5 William & Mary
530 Iona/Manhattan under 156
536 Wofford -3 Western Carolina
Average CLV: +.13 (123 beat close, 62 even, 86 lost to close)
Some more analysis (all of this is since 3/1, as I had to just set-up a new s/s since it was easier than merging with the old stuff)...
Action Points: 83.5 over 87 games (avg of .96/game)
Games decided by 10 or more points: 18-11
Games decided by 3 or fewer points: 6-14
Picking up almost a point a game via action points, but have a losing record (41-44-2). Still doing well in the blowouts, and not winning enough of those games that are decided by a basket or less. I'm now 17-39 this season in games decided by 3 points or less. I'll really need to dig in the offseason and figure if I'm playing numbers that would lead to this type of record (ie not giving enough respect to the "key" numbers in hoops), or if it's just some negative variance.
565 Penn +14 Princeton
575 Gonzaga/BYU over 145
587 Mt St Mary's/Robert Morris over 142.5
623 Notre Dame -3.5 Wake Forest
642 Oregon/Oregon State under 148.5
660 George Mason -5 Fordham 1.5 UNITS
664 Temple +1.5 UCF
665 South Carolina +3 Auburn
677 McNeese State +8.5 Oral Roberts
I mean this to be helpful, not insulting. Are you data mining with those close/blowout numbers? If you made the cutoffs different, would it reflect the same thing? For instance, maybe 4 or fewer is 13-15, or 9+ instead of 10+ shows 20-18 or something. Play with a bit and see if it matters. It may not, just a thought.
They're the pre-determined cutoffs that I've used in the past, so it's not "data mining" in the sense that I'm looking for numbers that make my stuff look better. I've always thought "one basket games" and "double digit games" were sorta points where I could find games that were somewhat out of reach at the end, and games where one basket was the difference between winning/losing. But I will play with the numbers when I get a chance to see what some of these others numbers give me. I ran it at 4 and 9 quick and found that I'm 11-10 in games decided by 3.5 or 4, and games decided by 9 or 9.5 are 7-6 so...
Games decided by 4 or fewer 28-49
Games decided by 9 or more 63-47
I appreciate the feedback, don't find it insulting at all.
528 Fresno State/Siena under 134.5
Will update final record after this one.
Final Result for 2013-2014: 128-145-11 (-31.5 units unweighted, -37.8 units weighted)
Average CLV: +.13 (129 beat close, 66 even, 89 lost to close)
Average Action Points: +.54 (gained 154.5 points in 284 games)
Haven't had a chance to do too much with reviewing this past season over the last month (hit a really busy stretch at work there for a bit). My time is also pretty sucked up into soccer over the next few months, but I plan to get back to reviewing the hoops season once the World Cup is over (gives me about 6-8 weeks before I'll start up on college hoops again).