TommyL's 2014 Soccer Plays (non-World Cup)
TommyL
Super Moderator
Here is one that I played today for 2 units...
Chelsea to win the Premier League @ +200 (5Dimes)
Not offered at too many books, but if you shop around, you might be able to find it somewhere else (ie SBO actually has it @ +205). The drawback here is that you'll obviously be locking up your $ until May 11th, but this price is too good to pass up IMO. Chelsea is currently sitting in 3rd, 2 points behind Arsenal and level with Man City (but Man City will crush them on goal difference if it comes down to it). Looking in the rear view mirror, they are 6 points clear of Liverpool and 8 clear of Everton. Chelsea has a few things going for them. First, they are really in form and are playing as well as anyone in the Prem at the moment. They might not have the embarrassment of riches of a Man City in certain positions, but Mourinho is getting everything that he can out of these guys (and it's not like they're really lacking anywhere).
But more importantly, the schedule sets up perfectly for them. I see a pretty big gap between the top 7 clubs and the rest of the Prem (I'm including Everton in here because they've played like a top club, and I include Man Utd because they should be a lot better than they are). And beyond the top 7, Southampton and Newcastle seem to have distanced themselves from the other 11. Well, here is what Chelsea has left in their last 14 games again these top 9 teams:
Done playing Man Utd, Man City, Southampton
Home against Newcastle, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Everton
Away at Liverpool
Same analysis for the other 3 contenders (note that I don't consider Everton, Tottenham, or Man Utd a contender at this point)...
Arsenal:
Done with Southampton
Home against Man Utd, Man City, and Newcastle
Away at Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Everton
Man City:
Done with Chelsea, Tottenham, and Newcastle
Home against Southampton
Away at Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Everton
Liverpool:
Done with Everton
Home against Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City, Chelsea, and Newcastle
Away at Southampton and Man Utd
As far as other factors...All 4 teams are still alive in the FA Cup, Chelsea/Arsenal/City are still alive in the Champions League, and City still have the League Cup Final to play. So slight advantage to Liverpool and slight disadvantage to Man City.
To make Man City such a heavy favorite when looking at the schedules, you have to either rate them much higher than I currently rate them, or think much less of Chelsea than I currently do (or some combo of both).
Running the numbers, I think Chelsea has about a 45-48% chance of winning the league, making the +200 price a steal. Based on the fact that I don't handicap the Premier League a lot, I won't put complete faith in my numbers and assume that they have pinpoint accuracy. However, I probably would have played this down to about +150 and still felt ok about it.
Chelsea to win the Premier League @ +200 (5Dimes)
Not offered at too many books, but if you shop around, you might be able to find it somewhere else (ie SBO actually has it @ +205). The drawback here is that you'll obviously be locking up your $ until May 11th, but this price is too good to pass up IMO. Chelsea is currently sitting in 3rd, 2 points behind Arsenal and level with Man City (but Man City will crush them on goal difference if it comes down to it). Looking in the rear view mirror, they are 6 points clear of Liverpool and 8 clear of Everton. Chelsea has a few things going for them. First, they are really in form and are playing as well as anyone in the Prem at the moment. They might not have the embarrassment of riches of a Man City in certain positions, but Mourinho is getting everything that he can out of these guys (and it's not like they're really lacking anywhere).
But more importantly, the schedule sets up perfectly for them. I see a pretty big gap between the top 7 clubs and the rest of the Prem (I'm including Everton in here because they've played like a top club, and I include Man Utd because they should be a lot better than they are). And beyond the top 7, Southampton and Newcastle seem to have distanced themselves from the other 11. Well, here is what Chelsea has left in their last 14 games again these top 9 teams:
Done playing Man Utd, Man City, Southampton
Home against Newcastle, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Everton
Away at Liverpool
Same analysis for the other 3 contenders (note that I don't consider Everton, Tottenham, or Man Utd a contender at this point)...
Arsenal:
Done with Southampton
Home against Man Utd, Man City, and Newcastle
Away at Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Everton
Man City:
Done with Chelsea, Tottenham, and Newcastle
Home against Southampton
Away at Man Utd, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Everton
Liverpool:
Done with Everton
Home against Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City, Chelsea, and Newcastle
Away at Southampton and Man Utd
As far as other factors...All 4 teams are still alive in the FA Cup, Chelsea/Arsenal/City are still alive in the Champions League, and City still have the League Cup Final to play. So slight advantage to Liverpool and slight disadvantage to Man City.
To make Man City such a heavy favorite when looking at the schedules, you have to either rate them much higher than I currently rate them, or think much less of Chelsea than I currently do (or some combo of both).
Running the numbers, I think Chelsea has about a 45-48% chance of winning the league, making the +200 price a steal. Based on the fact that I don't handicap the Premier League a lot, I won't put complete faith in my numbers and assume that they have pinpoint accuracy. However, I probably would have played this down to about +150 and still felt ok about it.
Comments
Russia -.5 Armenia (-239) 2.39 units to win 1 unit
Brazil -1.5 South Africa (-139) 1.39 units to win 1 unit
Denmark +.5, +1 England (+100 @ 5Dimes) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Ukraine -.5 USA (+153 @ 5Dimes) 1 unit to win 1.53 units
Exact score: USA 2 Mexico 0 (+1035 @ 5Dimes) .2 units to win 2.07 units
Basically, I threw all of my handicapping acumen out the window and said "you're telling me that there is really a <10% chance that the US wins 2-0 again"? It's fate at this point. (and honestly, I do like the US a little bit tonight, but the line would need to move a little bit more for me to make a "real" play on the game)
Still have the pending play on Chelsea to win the Premier League, so that result will most likely lead to a 2 unit hit in a week and a half (they can keep clean sheets again Athletico Madrid and with a "B" team at Liverpool, but couldn't hold onto the 1-0 lead at home against Sunderland). But with the way the Premier League has been going the past month, who knows what the hell is going to happen.
Poland/Germany over 3 (-123 @ 5dimes) 1.23 units to win 1 unit
Both teams are sending out squads that are well below full strength. Lots of guys getting an opportunity to prove themselves today (pretty much the entire starting lineup for Germany will be guys on the fringes of making the trip to Brazil), and a lot of inexperience in both defenses.
Jamaica +1, +1.5 Serbia (-124) 1.24 units to win 1 unit
USA -1.5 Azerbaijan (-133) 2.66 units to win 2 units
Mexico -.5 Israel (-195) 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Let's just hope that Blanco's curtain call tomorrow night lasts 2 minutes instead of 20 minutes (though too bad I can't find a prop of him pulling a muscle or collapsing from exhaustion in those 20 minutes that he'll play).
England -.5 Peru (-317) 3.17 units to win 1 unit
Mexico HT/FT (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
I don't even like this play all that much since I think Mexico's attack will be much better once they get Chicharito in there for Blanco, however I've got it as mispriced at the moment and figure it will have to move in the next 7 hours.
Switzerland -1.5 Jamaica (-113) 1.13 units to win 1 unit
One play for tonight...
Turkey -.5 Honduras (-104 @ 5Dimes) 1.04 units to win 1 unit
Passed on this one at first, but the line has steadily dropped. Thought about waiting it out a bit to see if it keeps dropping, but think the time is right to jump on board (I was going to play it at -110 or better).
Turkey -.5 Honduras (+116) .5 units to win .58 units
Turkey over 1.5 goals (+145) .5 units to win .725 units
Croatia -1.5 Mali (+112) 1 unit to win 1.12 units
Play for tomorrow (Saturday, 5/31)
Italy -1 Ireland (-102) 1.02 units to win 1 unit
Goes off in 5 minutes...
Bosnia and Herz +.5 Ivory Coast (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
Italy -.5 Ireland (-142) 1.42 units to win 1 unit
Ecuador/Mexico under 2, 2.5 (-122) 1.22 units to win 1 unit
Plays for today...
USA -.5 Turkey (+155) 1 unit to win 1.55 units
USA HT/FT (+320) .5 units to win 1.6 units
Cameroon +1.5 Germany (+114) 1 unit to win 1.14 units
Honduras under .5 goals (+230) 1 unit to win 2.3 units
Japan -.5 Costa Rica (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Well done so far
Plays for Tuesday, 6/3...
Brazil -2.5 Panama (-118) 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Greece E Nigeria (-145) 1.45 units to win 1 unit
England/Ecuador over 2.5 (+113) 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Chile -1, -1.5 Northern Ireland (-147) 1.47 units to win 1 unit
Ivory Coast -.5 El Salvador (-298) 2.98 units to win 1 unit
Jamaica -.5 Egypt (+272) .5 units to win 1.36 units
Bosnia and Herz/Mexico under 2 (+181) 1 unit to win 1.81 units
One more for today...
Jamaica +.5 Egypt (-140) 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Plays for Friday (6/6)...
Russia -.5 Morocco (-199) 1.99 units to win 1 unit
Serbia/Brazil over 3 (-118) 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Croatia -.5 Australia (-102) 1.53 units to win 1.5 unit
Portugal/Mexico under 2, 2.5 (-127) 1.27 units to win 1 unit
USA -.5 Nigeria (+108) 1.5 units to win 1.62 units
England -1 Honduras (-132) 1.32 units to win 1 unit
England -.5 Honduras (-219) 2.19 units to win 1 unit
Two more for today...
Spain -3 El Salvador (+117) 1 unit to win 1.17 units
USA HT/FT (+270) .5 units to win 1.35 units
Ghana E, -.5 South Korea (+108) 1 unit to win 1.08 units
I don't like anything on the Portugal/Ireland game on Tuesday (unless it really moves), so this is probably it until the big show starts on Thursday (and I'll post those plays in my separate "World Cup" thread).
Two for tonight...
Ireland +.5, +1 Portugal (+126) 1 unit to win 1.26 units
Portugal under 1.5 (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit