Betting Talk

2 free bets on spurs to win it all

underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
edited June 2013 in Sports Betting
GAME 6 bet spurs ML +280

BET SPURS TO WIN IT ALL IN GAME 7 +333

BET MIAMI on SERIES LINE -135

THAT'S YOUR FREE PLAY FOR TODAY. If heat wins the series your even if the spurs win you win a few bucks with no Risk
«134

Comments

  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Sorry, can't get it to match
    Little slow here
    BEST
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Oh shit your right its off...i messed up miss calculated
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Damn I got to stop hitting the Kush this early in the day :)
  • randy2005randy2005 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    i think u should put some money to gamble with miami to win the series
    if they win on game 6 then u have 3 chance to choice to make money
    goodluck
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Randy, that bet sounds very logical, but I find a problem with it. The problem is that situation will hurt the books bad, and to inflict the most pain possible on bettors would be for the Spurs to end it all in game 6. Just using option writer philosophy.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Let me throw some numbers at you, since they went to the 2-3-2 in 1985 format eight times (Before SAS this year) the road team took a 3 games to 2 lead and 5 times the road team won the championship But the Road never won in game 7

    In Finals history there have been 17 game 7's and only 3 times has the road team won Washington 78, Boston 74, and Boston 69 it's also worth noting that Home teams are 90-23 79.6% all time in NBA game 7's the last one Miami vs Indy.

    That's just some history and it tells us that SAS better do it in game 6 or the odds are way against them.

    Now after game one I bet -110 $550 now I'm thinking and I never put myself in a spot to lose twice on the same bet. This being a series bet and I don't believe in hedging unless it's change of life money but for those in my situation here's something to think about

    Use any numbers you want I'm going to use Even money they were around also after the first game Why not bet $250 on SAS ML Game 6 to win (+290) $725 and if they win you pick up $225 profit if they lose you still pick up $250 profit if of course Miami wins game 7. Lets see even if you want to get out of the bet you can bet SAS again in game 7 lets keep it at +290 for $250 and if Miami wins you break even and if SAS wins game 7 you pick up at least $225 with no risk

    Does that make sense?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Yes OT that makes sense. I was just trying a 3 way arb and I miss calculated. I have spurs for series+200 after I seen the Spartan played it I posted it in one of NFLPICKSGUY treads
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Let me throw some numbers at you, since they went to the 2-3-2 in 1985 format eight times (Before SAS this year) the road team took a 3 games to 2 lead and 5 times the road team won the championship But the Road never won in game 7

    In Finals history there have been 17 game 7's and only 3 times has the road team won Washington 78, Boston 74, and Boston 69 it's also worth noting that Home teams are 90-23 79.6% all time in NBA game 7's the last one Miami vs Indy.

    That's just some history and it tells us that SAS better do it in game 6 or the odds are way against them.

    Now after game one I bet -110 $550 now I'm thinking and I never put myself in a spot to lose twice on the same bet. This being a series bet and I don't believe in hedging unless it's change of life money but for those in my situation here's something to think about

    Use any numbers you want I'm going to use Even money they were around also after the first game Why not bet $250 on SAS ML Game 6 to win (+290) $725 and if they win you pick up $225 profit if they lose you still pick up $250 profit if of course Miami wins game 7. Lets see even if you want to get out of the bet you can bet SAS again in game 7 lets keep it at +290 for $250 and if Miami wins you break even and if SAS wins game 7 you pick up at least $225 with no risk

    Does that make sense?

    That hedge is just throwing away equity. The correct move, as I think you know, is to hold the original ticket.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    That hedge is just throwing away equity. The correct move, as I think you know, is to hold the original ticket.

    I agree and as I stated unless it's going to change my life I always sit. There are a lot of people here that discuss hedging I thought I would give them something to think about. By the way Good luck in the future and welcome your insights and plays are appreciate.
  • NFLPicksGuyNFLPicksGuy Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    if you have no series bets already in place, do you think the play is to bet the Heat to win series @ -135, and the Spurs to win game 6 @ +290. ?
    Only way to lose is the Heat win game 6, and then Spurs win game 7.. which historically doesn't seem probable.

    -When a team is leading 3-2 NBA and on the road: 59-32 (.648)
    -When a team is leading 3-2 NBA and on the road in the Finals: 10-6 (.625)
    -Home team in game is 14-3 (.823)

    Am I missing something?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Spurs aren't winning g6
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Spurs aren't winning g6

    So you think they will lose the series? Or do you think they defy all odds lose game 6 and win in game 7 to cause even more maximum pain
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    So you think they will lose the series? Or do you think they defy all odds lose game 6 and win in game 7 to cause even more maximum pain

    I think Miami wins the next 2.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    I think Miami wins the next 2.

    I see you have an Avatar of Stu did you know him by chance?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    I think Miami wins the next 2.

    I'm not so sure of that and the only reasoning I have behind it, is that I have the Lord of the NBA King of Sparta clocked for a total of
    125k on the spurs to win it all on avg +200 before game 1 even started.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Although I agree with the Good Doctor and will sit but you must respect the King
  • BigItaly42BigItaly42 Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Spurs aren't winning g6

    lol we will see. Solid argument though. Spurs win tonight.
  • dynastydynasty Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    I'm not so sure of that and the only reasoning I have behind it, is that I have the Lord of the NBA King of Sparta clocked for a total of
    125k on the spurs to win it all on avg +200 before game 1 even started.

    You are still pretending like you have inside info on what bob picked? He publicly stated he didn't make a series bet. What's his incentive to lie?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    No comment
  • InsiderInsider Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    I'm not so sure of that and the only reasoning I have behind it, is that I have the Lord of the NBA King of Sparta clocked for a total of
    125k on the spurs to win it all on avg +200 before game 1 even started.

    Bob would never bet 125K on the Spurs +200 to win the series for the simple reason he could get more value just betting the Spurs on a game by game basis. He also would never bet 125K. He doesn't even bet that much on regular season totals anymore where his edge is huge.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Okay......
  • InsiderInsider Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    Okay......

    You don't make millions betting basketball by making -EV bets like Spurs +200 for the series lol
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Just heard him interviewed by Dan Lebatard, he said he didn't like anything tonight, but gun to his head, he would take over in the first half. I missed the beginning, so I don't know if he talked about a series play or not, he also said he's got courtside tickets for tonight.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    I see you have an Avatar of Stu did you know him by chance?
    Insider wrote: »
    You don't make millions betting basketball by making -EV bets like Spurs +200 for the series lol

    You might be right but you don't have the logins so anything you say don't mean shit to me
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    OT sorry about the quote I accidentally put in above
  • InsiderInsider Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    You might be right but you don't have the logins so anything you say don't mean shit to me

    Bob just mentioned on twitter he doesn't have any action on the Spurs. Why would he lie to his 30,000 followers ? Also If I can figure out taking the Spurs +200(For the Series) was mathematically wrong certainly Bob can lol. Much more value just betting San Antonio game to game.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Obama has 200,000,000 million followers does it mean anything
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Insider wrote: »
    Bob just mentioned on twitter he doesn't have any action on the Spurs. Why would he lie to his 30,000 followers ? Also If I can figure out taking the Spurs +200(For the Series) was mathematically wrong certainly Bob can lol. Much more value just betting San Antonio game to game.

    Can you show your math?

    Assuming one has the bankroll that bob does, the correct move is to bet as much as you can on pretty much every edge you can find.
  • InsiderInsider Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    durito wrote: »
    Can you show your math?

    Assuming one has the bankroll that bob does, the correct move is to bet as much as you can on pretty much every edge you can find.

    What edge did the Spurs +200 to win the series have when betting San Antonio game by game offered much more value ?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2013
    Insider wrote: »
    What edge did the Spurs +200 to win the series have when betting San Antonio game by game offered much more value ?

    The series bet either has an edge or it doesn't. Whatever perceived value you see after the fact in the individual games isn't relevant.
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