TommyL's March College Basketball Plays
TommyL
Super Moderator
Updated Record: 254-214-4 (+18.6 units unweighted, +10.75 units weighted) Average CLV: +.25
Plays for Friday, 3/1
831. Harvard +6 Princeton
835. Fairfield -1 Manhattan 1.5 UNITS
Note that I already posted these plays in my February thread and am just pasting them in here (so they aren't additional plays/plays at a stale line).
Plays for Friday, 3/1
831. Harvard +6 Princeton
835. Fairfield -1 Manhattan 1.5 UNITS
Note that I already posted these plays in my February thread and am just pasting them in here (so they aren't additional plays/plays at a stale line).
Comments
Related to your threads, apprecaite the plays. Have you had more success in the past in the beginning of the year before the lines catch up, or you don't really see a significant edge in the beginning vs end of the season?
I've always had the most success the first month or so of the season. I spend a ton of time in the summer/fall months researching stuff and putting together my power ratings, and think it really pays off (I don't spend any time capping football). It's just a time of the year where so many others are spread so thin between NBA/NHL/NFL/CFB, that I think I have a bigger advantage. This time of year, the lines are much tighter and everyone that's using a model already has all of their data to generate numbers. I think it's still possible to win right now, but it's a lot more difficult.
I could talk all day about PSU hoops. I know that Chambers would love to have a good big guy, but there are probably about 300 other teams in D1 that really need a good big guy right now. I never thought I'd say it, but I really wish that Sasa was coming back for one more year, he's really stared to give them what they need at the 5. I like a lot of the pieces of next year's team, as I think that Frazier/Newbill/Marshall will give them a B1G caliber starting backcourt and Johnson/Thorpe/Woodyard will give them some nice options off the bench. Travis is starting to come into his own and I really think that he can be a solid 4, and I think that Taylor would be a great guy to bring off the bench at the 4. But instead, they'll probably be forced to go with Taylor at the 5, and be giving up a ton of size inside (as I just don't think that Graham/Jack/Ackerman/Moore will be a reliable 5). They still have too many similiar parts in the backcourt (Frazier/Newbill/Marshall are all "drive-first" guards that don't shoot the 3 that well), but they'll be a lot better.
I thought that Chambers was really turning the corner when he landed the Brandon Austin commit. Then, we he backed out, Frazier got hurt, and the season went into a tailspin. As someone on PennStateHoops pointed out, it seems like we've turned the corner so many times that we're basically going in a circle (the 95/96 team and the opening of the BJC, the 2001 S16 run, the 2009 NIT title and Buie committing that night, getting the commit from Trey Burke, getting the commit from Austin, etc). I love Chambers' energy and know that he has better Philly connections than anyone that we've ever had, however I'm still not sold on his ability to develop talent and his in-game coaching (I thougt the DeChellis/Kanaskie combination did a much better job in that regard). But I'm consistantly amazed at PC's ability to motivate his guys, they could have easily mailed in the rest of the season but they're playing their best ball of the year right now.
Plays for Saturday, 3/2
521. Tennessee -1.5 Georgia
535. Penn State +15.5 Minnesota 1.5 UNITS
545. Indiana State +4 Evansville
560. Houston -3.5 Marshall
572. USC -3 Arizona State
585. Saint Louis -6 George Washington 1.5 UNITS
589. UNLV -5.5 Nevada
594. New Mexico -11 Wyoming 1.5 UNITS
613. Middle Tennessee State -6.5 Western Kentucky
623. Akron -6.5 Buffalo
649. Colorado State +1.5 Boise State
652. Creighton -5.5 Wichita State
654. Drake -5.5 Southern Illinois
684. Hawaii -4 Cal Poly SLO
723. Eastern Kentucky E Tennessee State
515. Butler +8 VCU
585. St Louis -5 George Washington .5 UNIT (adding another half unit to make it a 2 unit play)
601. Colorado +5 California
Plays for Sunday, 3/3
825. DePaul +4 South Florida
829. Virginia -4 Boston College
832. Stanford -11.5 Utah
What's your take on the Michigan game? I've heard that Ninja runners have been betting the game in Vegas. Do you like either side?
Think the line is right. Michigan should be the better team, but theyve been in a little funk. I think they win, but it should be close.
One play for Monday, 3/4
Montana -2 Southern Utah
Plays for Tuesday, 3/5 (One of my favorite days of the year, the start of conference tournies)
514. Notre Dame -8.5 St. John's
516. Clemson -4 Boston College
545. Loyola-Chicago +2 Youngstown St (they had enough trouble beating them with Kendrick Perry, gonna be real tough to do it a 3rd time without him)
563. Longwood +14 UNC-Asheville 1.5 UNITS
566. Campbell -3 Presbyterian 1.5 UNITS
If you trust Pomeroy's log5 numbers, then Charleston Southern @ +250 (5Dimes) in the Big South has a little bit of value (Ken gives them a 31.6% chance of winning the tourney). I really like their draw too, as the 3 biggest threats to them are all on the other side of the bracket, and the only team that should realistically challenge them in the bottom half of the draw (UNC Asheville) has really limped home. The title game could give them trouble with High Point or a matchup with Coastal Carolina in Myrtle Beach, however I think they have even better than the 50.5% chance of reaching the Championship game that Ken gives them.
The Horizon really should come down to Valpo or Detroit unless something really surprising happens, however I don't see any value on either of them.
I would have probably made it a 1 unit play at 13.
I guess some others thought that it had more than just "a little bit of value". They're now sitting at +150.
well that explains it.... MELT
I always have trouble trying to figure out the psychology of 18-23 year olds. Do they come out flat, knowing that their coach might be bailing on them? Or do they come out with a chip on their shoulder and an "us against the world" mentality? You'd have to think that a situation like this certainly isn't a positive for them, however I think it's tough to say how much of an impact it will have once the ball goes up in the air.
Can we get an easy one once in a while please.
Fixed your post for you beef.
Plays for Wednesday, 3/6
733. Georgetown +1.5 Villanova
747. Rhode Island +9 St. Joseph's
769. West Virginia +11.5 Oklahoma
775. Tennessee -5 Auburn
791. Loyola Marymount -1 Portland
Still waiting for the ASun, NEC, and Patriot games to hit the board, so will likely have some more when they do.
You might also consider adding more outs if that's an option to you. CRIS/BM had 9 for over an hour after your post.