TommyL's 2013 Soccer Plays
TommyL
Super Moderator
2012 Soccer Result: +3165.38 (ROI: +7.9%)
I figured I'll just use one thread for all of my 2013 plays, which will mostly be World Cup Qualifying, the CONCACAF Gold Cup, and maybe some plays on the Confederations Cup. Might have some CONCACAF Champions League or other small CONCACAF tournaments, but it'll mostly be international plays instead of club plays. Everything will be from 5Dimes unless otherwise noted.
England - Capital One League Cup Winner - Swansea (+115) - 200 to win 230
Swansea have put themselves in a very good position in this tourney, and I'm surprised that we can still get +$ on them as I'd even be looking to play this at even money. They picked up the 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge yesterday, and they come into the home leg just needing to lose by less than 2 goals against a Chelsea side that isn't playing very well right now. They've got a tough go of it in the FA Cup as they have to travel to the Emerites for a replay against Arsenal, and know that the League Cup has granted them a golden opportunity to win a trophy this season. If they finish the job against Chelsea, they'll be heavy favorites in the final at Wembley against either League 2 side Bradford or an Aston Villa team that is playing pretty poorly right now (16th in the BPL table with a league worst goal differential). Bradford even won the home leg of that matchup 3-1, so the chances of facing a team 3 leagues below them for the trophy is very realistic. The winner also gets a trip to the Europa League, and it's the only realistic way that Swansea will be playing in Europe next season, so it makes the stakes all the higher for a mid-table Prem team.
I figured I'll just use one thread for all of my 2013 plays, which will mostly be World Cup Qualifying, the CONCACAF Gold Cup, and maybe some plays on the Confederations Cup. Might have some CONCACAF Champions League or other small CONCACAF tournaments, but it'll mostly be international plays instead of club plays. Everything will be from 5Dimes unless otherwise noted.
England - Capital One League Cup Winner - Swansea (+115) - 200 to win 230
Swansea have put themselves in a very good position in this tourney, and I'm surprised that we can still get +$ on them as I'd even be looking to play this at even money. They picked up the 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge yesterday, and they come into the home leg just needing to lose by less than 2 goals against a Chelsea side that isn't playing very well right now. They've got a tough go of it in the FA Cup as they have to travel to the Emerites for a replay against Arsenal, and know that the League Cup has granted them a golden opportunity to win a trophy this season. If they finish the job against Chelsea, they'll be heavy favorites in the final at Wembley against either League 2 side Bradford or an Aston Villa team that is playing pretty poorly right now (16th in the BPL table with a league worst goal differential). Bradford even won the home leg of that matchup 3-1, so the chances of facing a team 3 leagues below them for the trophy is very realistic. The winner also gets a trip to the Europa League, and it's the only realistic way that Swansea will be playing in Europe next season, so it makes the stakes all the higher for a mid-table Prem team.
Comments
Belize/Costa Rica under 3.5, 4 (-118) - 118 to win 100
Play begins today in the Central American Cup (this game is at 9pm Eastern). Tourney is being held in Costa Rica and they obviously want a good showing on home soil, however this isn't being played on FIFA International dates so they are a little short handed, and they have much more important things ahead with WCQ starting up again in March. Belize has apparrently been training for a couple of months for this tournament (though it's tough to dig up reliable information on the Belize national team) and won't be hurt by the calendar since they are a domestic based squad (with 2 players from Honduras). Belize had a respectable showing in WCQ last year, making it out of the opening round and finishing second in their group (to Guatemala) in the second round. Costa Rica is a favorite to win this tournament, but it may take them a little while to find their form with a short camp and a roster that isn't their "A" squad. I don't think that Belize will show much in the attack, but I think they can hang around here and keep it respectable.
Plays for today...
Panama -.5 El Salvador (-122) - 122 to win 100
Nicaragua/Costa Rica under 3 (-108) - 108 to win 100
I think that Panama is the better team regardless, but I also like getting a rested team against a team that just played on Friday night. It's a nice spot for them.
Costa Rica struggled in the attack as I thought on Friday night. I think there is value on the under again today, as both teams should be a little sluggish coming off of Friday night's games.
Plays for today...
Belize/Nicaragua under 2, 2.5 (-116) 116 to win 100
Guatemala +.5, +1 Costa Rica (-114) 114 to win 100
have to like where you are sitting with this one. well done and wish i had seen it when you posted. still can't figure out what was going on with the ballboy and Hazard. his punishment should for that kick should be interesting, but how can a ballboy be permitted to lay on the ball like that?
haven't even checked on how last night's action turned out for you, but always appreciate the posts and wish you the best.
I certainly like having Swansea at +115 playing against a mid-table League 2 side, however Bradford keeps pulling them games out of their butts (at least in relation to their form in the league), so hopefully it'll finally end. I actually posted a link to the Hazard video in another thread, no idea what that kid was doing and I definitely think he was embellishing it a little bit, but Hazard will be paying a very big price for this one.
Last night was a weird night. I got screwed by late goals in the Belize game, it was 1-0 until the 85th minutes, then goal and another one in injury time. But in the late game, Guatemala was trailing 1-0 all game and scored in second half injury time to tie it up. So just ended up losing juice, but could easily have gone 2-0 or 0-2.
Thanks for the kind words.
Honduras -.5 Belize (-232) - 232 to win 100
Honduras is the better team, the deeper team, and the fresher team. Belize has clinched their first ever trip to a Gold Cup, while it's something that was pretty much expected for Honduras. I like this spot for Honduras. May have something up tomorrow on one of the other two games.
Guatemala +.5 Panama (-124) 124 to win 100
Not on directv, but i think its on goltv if you have it. They have been online.
Swansea play is still pending. Championship and 3rd place game in the Copa Centroamericana on Sunday. What a brutal tourney to watch so far, 21 goals in 12 games. And after watching Guatemala limp to a 6th place finish (out of 7 teams) and miss out on the Gold Cup, it really raises some concerns about how the US will do on the road in the Hex, if they couldn't get 3 points against this Guatemala side. Hopefully it was just one really bad night.
El Salvador -.5, -1 Belize (-115) 115 to win 100
Honduras/Costa Rica under 2, 2.5 (-135) 135 to win 100
Won't have anything most likely until WCQ starts back up. Swansea is pending (and won't go into ROI until it's graded).
From a handicapping standpoint, no. Just too much uncertainty to know how we will look to lay the price that its at. But really looking forward to seeing these guys.
I should just use my "Super Moderator" powers to edit that part out of my quote, so that I don't embarass myself. Just finished watching it on DVR, and that was about the most lifeless game that I've ever watched. If Twellman's prediction that 7-8 guys from tonight's squad will travel to Honduras next week comes true, then it's really going to be a stressful 9 months trying to get to Brazil.
Im sorry for my ignorance Tommy... is being +3165 similar to being +31 units in something like football or hoops? I know it might not translate that way due to different juice/vigs etc. but I was just curious.
Thanks
The translation from my $ to units obviously depends on how much you're playing a game. Since betting on soccer is so different than a basketball/football, then it's not really practical to keep the standard weighted/unweighted record. So, I just attach a $ amount to each bet. I already deleted my 2012 spreadsheet so I don't have the info to pull this up for sure, but I'd guess that my average bet would be something around 150 or so (and seems to line up with what I've been doing so far this year). So while it might translate to +31 units for a $100 player, it's definitely an "unweighted" record since so many plays aren't your standard 1.1 to win 1 type plays.
And this is really the reason that I keep the ROI along with the record, since that gives an indication of the return of the total risk.
I watched some last night and the rest this morning and couldn't agree more. I took virtually nothing away from that game other than Canada wanted a 0-0 draw and not a single US player stood out. Awful, awful match.
I also agree tracking ROI is worthwhile, but that can also be done no matter how you track units won/lost.
I'll do that. I always tracked it all the way down to the "cents" level, but I'll just track it out to 2 decimal points and round.
So...
Updated Result: +1.88 units (ROI: 15.9%)
One pending play is 2 to win 2.3 units.
Thanks.
USA/Honduras under 2.5 (-155) - 1.55 to win 1
Mexico -1.5 Jamaica (-142) - 4.26 to win 3
Mexico might end up being my strongest play all year. This to me (and probably most) is the biggest mismatch that we'll see all Hex, and a 3-4 goal rout is very possible.
To me, -2 +115 is still a very strong play. And without getting into too many specifics, I have an out that mirrors them so when I play their games, I'm not actually the actual book with them (though I wonder if you've just been successful and got knocked down to $50, as I'd think their "base" limit would be a lot higher on a game like this).
That's likely the case. You'd laugh at my limits on the biggest markets in the world. Forget smaller markets.
#humblebrag
Thanks in advance.
Hardly, my limits weren't cut over the years for winning overly large amounts, they just don't like certain types of bets.
I wish I could brag about my success, and I see you're new here, so you probably haven't seen me post my line about being the least successful pro gambler I know... which is far more accurate than humble.
Exactly.
you have any leans in any of the friendlys today?
No. If it was outside of college hoops season, I might have looked more at them, but I haven't even looked at any rosters (other than what they've talked about on Fox Soccer News or made headlines on ESPNFC). I capped the CONCACAF games, but that was the extent for today.