College Hoops Question/Thought
TommyL
Super Moderator
I'm usually one that would completely write off something like this due to the small sample size (but of course I'm not here since I came up with it, 
). And I'd normally keep something like this to myself, but seeing that it happens once a year, here goes...
I made a play on the Rider/Stony Brook under yesterday, with the biggest factor being the time that the game was played. It was the 6am game in the college hoops marathon. They've now played a game in this timeslot the past 4 years (all in the Eastern Time zone), with the scores of these games being 58-34, 51-49, 80-62, and 54-46. The game has been lined with a total the last 3 years, with those totals being 129.5, 129.5, and 131 (so 2-1 to the under, with the average total of the 3 lined games as coming in 16 points under the total).
My biggest reason for making the play is that I expect a sloppy, lethargic type of game at that time of the day. Players completely off their routine (I don't even know what the teams do in this instance, since it's normal for a team to have a meal 4-5 hours before a game and then head over to the arena to get taped up, stretch, go over final prep, etc). You've also got a pretty lethargic crowd by college hoops standards, etc.
Question for the more serious guys on here, do you put any stock into the results in these 4 games? Or have I completely made up a theory and it just happens that I'm lucky and the results through this miniscule sample size match up with my theory?
). And I'd normally keep something like this to myself, but seeing that it happens once a year, here goes...I made a play on the Rider/Stony Brook under yesterday, with the biggest factor being the time that the game was played. It was the 6am game in the college hoops marathon. They've now played a game in this timeslot the past 4 years (all in the Eastern Time zone), with the scores of these games being 58-34, 51-49, 80-62, and 54-46. The game has been lined with a total the last 3 years, with those totals being 129.5, 129.5, and 131 (so 2-1 to the under, with the average total of the 3 lined games as coming in 16 points under the total).
My biggest reason for making the play is that I expect a sloppy, lethargic type of game at that time of the day. Players completely off their routine (I don't even know what the teams do in this instance, since it's normal for a team to have a meal 4-5 hours before a game and then head over to the arena to get taped up, stretch, go over final prep, etc). You've also got a pretty lethargic crowd by college hoops standards, etc.
Question for the more serious guys on here, do you put any stock into the results in these 4 games? Or have I completely made up a theory and it just happens that I'm lucky and the results through this miniscule sample size match up with my theory?
Comments
Meant to ask this yesterday, but forgot. What type of routine did you use for a 7:30am game? Did you have a team meal, and if so at what time (I'm pretty familiar with how Penn State did everything on gameday, but not sure how other levels of basketball handle stuff like this on gameday, or even what level you played)? What time were you guys waking up/meeting to start the morning? And like Old-Timer said, it must have been tough trying to sleep the night before. I remember how much trouble I'd have sleeping the night before a high school game, can't imagine they got a good night of sleep thinking about a 6am game.
The market agrees with you. Tuesday morning the umass/harvard game was the best example. Total was getting bet up to 140....1H total opened at 66 and got bet down to 62.5/63. Not very often do you see a game total increasing and at the exact same time the 1H total decreasing. Most of the 1H early morning totals have been getting bet down.
754 Green Bay/East Tennessee State under 146
Yea, that didn't go so well.