TommyL's October World Cup Qualifiers
TommyL
Super Moderator
All plays in this thread will be from 5Dimes unless otherwise noted. I'll get my record up here this afternoon, just have to dig it up from a prior thread.
I've spent the last two days working on the Qualifiers on Friday (10/12). I'll have a bunch of stuff up here today as I'm making my plays right now, but wanted to get this one up before it possibly moves...
Mexico -.5 Guyana (-516) 516 to win 100
Certainly eating some pretty big juice here, however I've got Mexico with just over a 90% chance of winning this one. It's a "home" qualifier for Guyana that's being played in Houston, in front of what will be a sold out, pro-Mexico crowd. Mexico has already qualified for the next round so this game could be seen as meaningless for them, however they've called in their full squad. Guyana has given up at least 2 goals in all 4 games of this stage, and will have a very difficult time slowing down Mexico.
I've spent the last two days working on the Qualifiers on Friday (10/12). I'll have a bunch of stuff up here today as I'm making my plays right now, but wanted to get this one up before it possibly moves...
Mexico -.5 Guyana (-516) 516 to win 100
Certainly eating some pretty big juice here, however I've got Mexico with just over a 90% chance of winning this one. It's a "home" qualifier for Guyana that's being played in Houston, in front of what will be a sold out, pro-Mexico crowd. Mexico has already qualified for the next round so this game could be seen as meaningless for them, however they've called in their full squad. Guyana has given up at least 2 goals in all 4 games of this stage, and will have a very difficult time slowing down Mexico.
Comments
USA/Antigua & Barbuda under 3 (-107) 214 to win 200
Only twice in their last 19 away qualifiers have the US scored more than 2 goals (both were against Costa Rica), and this includes games in Cuba and Barbados. The US has to come away with 3 points in this one, and I think they've shown the last few games that we're comfortable trying to sit on a lead instead of attacking and trying to bury teams. I think Howard can put up a clean sheet here, but even if he doesn't then I'd see it as a 2-1 game.
Costa Rica E El Salvador (+105) 100 to win 105
I've got this game as almost a coin flip, with a slight edge to Costa Rica. It's a must-win spot for El Salvador, while a tie might do enough to get Costa Rica through to the next round. Costa Rica is the better team, but playing in a tough atmosphere should negate most of the talent advantage. El Salvador put up two poor performances in their September games, and I think Costa Rica can sit back and take advantage of a team that has to take chances to get the three points. If this one was at -105 or maybe even +100, I probably pass, but like getting + odds in this spot.
Panama -.5 Honduras (+121) 150 to win 181.5
Honduras has been pretty disappointing to me as of late, while Panama seems to be clicking pretty well right now. Panama took the leg in Honduras 2-0, and a win here moves them on to the next round. This is the biggest home game that they've played in a long time, and I think they've passed Honduras by in the past couple of years and will get the job done in this spot.
Columbia -.5 Paraguay (-175) 175 to win 100
Columbia -1 Paraguay (+103) 50 to win 51.5
It's shocking how quickly Paraguay have fallen. They've qualified for 4 straight WC's and were runner-up last summer at the Copa America. Now, they find themselves at the bottom of the table and in grave danger of not making it to Brazil in 2014. And at the same time, Columbia is playing really well right now. Paraguay has lost their last 4 qualifiers by 2 goals, and this line would be a lot higher if not for Paraguay's success in the past several years. I don't think this is the spot that they snap out of it.
Peru +.5 Bolivia (+110) 100 to win 110
Bolivia is another squad that's playing well below expectations right now. Peru got off to a horrible start in qualifying, but picked up 4 points in their two September games (one of which was a home draw with Argentina where they really deserved more). Bolivia has owned Peru in WCQ at home, but this isn't the same Bolivia team and Peru did pick up a tie in a friendly last September in this stadium.
Russia E Portugul (-106) 106 to win 100
Finland -.5 Georgia (-115) 230 to win 200
Albania E, -.5 Iceland (-104) 104 to win 100
Croatia -.5 Macedonia (-131) 196.5 to win 150
Switzerland -.5 Norway (-133) 266 to win 200
Ireland +1, +1.5 Germany (-119) 119 to win 100
Greece -.5 Bosnia & Herzgovina (+118) 150 to win 177
That'll be all for now. If you want my thoughts on any of the UEFA games, let me know (too many to type out reasoning for all). May have another play or two depending on where the lines head, or if any news come out.
Updated Result: +3723.88 ROI: +10.6%
I am still waiting on 5Dimes to put up the England-San Marino goal line. They don't have anything up on this game, but it's England -10000 at Bookmaker (with no goal line). Anything with England giving under 6 goals and I'll be on them (though not sure if we'll ever see a line on it).
Could be worse, you could have cable and not get beIN.
I'll feel sorry for you when I'm out shoveling snow after the first big storm this winter, and you're sitting outside in shorts and a t-shirt.
Hopefully ESPN or NBC Sports will step up to the plate and pick up some of the road qualifiers in the Hex (assuming that we can make it there). With how far soccer has come in this country, it's pretty shocking that WCQ's can still be stuck on a network that's as limited as beIN.
Would you believe my wife still complains every winter how she misses the snow? I think she's nuts. It's too hot here and I miss the spring/fall weather from up north, but definitely not the snow.
Is it even possible for another network to pick up the next round of qualifying? I assumed beIN bought all the rights. Of course it's a sad situation, not much to be said about that.
While I'm rambling, the president of our local USL Pro club is trying to get a soccer-only stadium built with the hopes of eventually moving the team up to MLS. They play in the POS Citrus Bowl now... too old, way too big, and terrible field. Based on the local economy, I don't know where he's going to get the $95M from, but that would certainly be cool. It was pretty sad to have the national team train at Disney's Wide World of Sports (great complex) this past June but then go play the qualifier in Tampa.
You're correct, I thought that they were only able to get the games in this round, however it appears that they do have everything (though I'm not quite sure how, as each federation owns the rights to their own home games, and we don't even know who 4 of the other teams in the Hex will be yet). Although maybe having a USA @ Mexico qualifier on beIN will be what's needed to get your cable company to add the channel.
If only it were that simple... We just got NFL Network (free) and NFL Red Zone (part of an $8/month sports package) TWO WEEKS AGO!
Needless to say, I'm not holding my breath for a tiny sports channel owned by a middle eastern company best known in the US for passing along messages from al-Quaeda.
Mexico -1.5, -2 Guyana (-171) 171 to win 100
England -5.5 San Marino (-139) 139 to win 100
Chances of England being a larger ATS favorite than New England in a given weekend?
GL today. Still figuring out how much of my Friday night (typically dinner out with the wife night) I want to interfere with just so I can watch a choppy internet feed of the US/Antigua match. Leaning towards steering the dinner to the early side and close to home. Priorities, priorities...
Try thefirstrow.eu or atdhe.eu.
NOTE: For informational purposes only. I am in no way promoting or condoning the illegal piracy of live television.
Love it. haha. thanks.
Never! She actually grew up playing soccer and is a fan of the game, just not a big enough fan to watch qualifiers on bad internet feeds (again, not that I condone such things).
YTD Result: +3382.38 ROI: +8.9%
Plays for Tuesday (10/16)
Latvia -1.5 Liechtenstein (-118) 118 to win 100
Ireland -1, -1.5 Faroe Islands (-122) 183 to win 150
Netherlands/Romania over 2.5 (-101) 101 to win 100
Moldova -1.5, -2 San Marino (-125) 125 to win 100
Switzerland -.5 Iceland (-117) 234 to win 200
Uruguay E Bolivia (-111) 111 to win 100
South Korea E Iran (-127) 127 to win 100
USA/Guatemala under 2.5 (+106) 200 to win 212
Costa Rica/Guyana over 3.5 (-110) 110 to win 100
Panama -.5 Cuba (-338) 338 to win 100
Peru/Paraguay under 2 (+137) 100 to win 137
Panama -1, -1.5 Cuba (-109) 109 to win 100
USA/Guatemala over 5.5 (for the full game) - (-119) 119 to win 100
USA/Guatemala over 6.5 (+275) 50 to win 137.5
Guatemala has to stretch this thing out and go for broke. And I don't trust the US defense to put up a clean sheet in the second half, especially with a team that's attacking.
YTD Result: +3165.38 ROI: +7.9%