NFL Teasers week 1
lumpy19
Senior Member
NFL teaser record from preseason - 172-31 +278.6u
3 team round robin at +180 with the following teams.(I've only played the Minnesota legs so far, I'll wait til sunday morning to play the rest when the lines are as sharp as they get)
Min +5
Pit +2
Cin +4.5
Cle +2.5
Den +2.5
Hou +2
Balt +2.5
KC +4.5
Should end up with 21 bets on tonights game. 35 more bets on sunday morning if the lines stay the same.
3 team round robin at +180 with the following teams.(I've only played the Minnesota legs so far, I'll wait til sunday morning to play the rest when the lines are as sharp as they get)
Min +5
Pit +2
Cin +4.5
Cle +2.5
Den +2.5
Hou +2
Balt +2.5
KC +4.5
Should end up with 21 bets on tonights game. 35 more bets on sunday morning if the lines stay the same.
Comments
Paging Bill the Cop.
EDITED, bad info
Goats -
any idea on the sample size of that? I just can't imagine it being that large, unless you are going way back.
which brings me to another question if you have the time or interest to give me you valued input:
How far back should an NFL database range? I don't know how many games worth of data is used by books to determine the math behind their lines and teaser odds. Just curious to see if you, or anyone else reading this, knows if certain rule changes and/or the installation of the Salary Cap changed the numbers at all.
As for the subset I mentioned above, I think I saw Bill post the last 5 year results elsewhere. Hopefully he'll chime in. Using the word "teaser" in a thread title usually gets his attention. He can cite whatever teaser numbers you want.
yes, 9 is kind of a dead number but pinnacle is currently showing philly +3(-120)
2010 NFL 207-52 +320.6u
Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 121
NFL teasers
First of all, let's clear up some misconceptions relating to Basic Strategy (BS) teasers. By definition BS teasers are those NFL 6 point teasers which capture the WHOLE 3 and 7. So they consist of Dogs 1.5 to 2.5 teased up and Favs 7.5 to 8.5 teased down. That's it, all other subsets are considered "Non Basic Strategy" teasers. Much to the chagrin of many so called "pros" I've been a strong advocate of the non-BS variety of teasers for many years. The ones I concentrate on are RD+4.5 to +6 and HF-7 to -9. Below are charts of BS teasers based on 16 years of regular season data and then the last 5 years of results. I then detailed the results of non-BS teasers for comparison.
BS Summary, 16 years
RD1.5 to 2.5, 206-79-0, for 72.3%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 148-60-0, for 71.2%
Subtotal Dogs, 354-139-0, for 71.8%
RF7.5 to 8.5, 46-25-0, for 64.8%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 166-59-2, for 73.8%
Subtotal Favs, 212-84-2, for 71.6%
Total all BS Teasers, 566-223-2, for 71.7%
BS Summary, 5 years
RD1.5 to 2.5, 54-18-0, for 75%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 40-23-0, for 63.5%
Subtotal Dogs, 94-41-0, for 69.6%
RF7.5 to 8.5, 21-11-0, for 65.6%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 51-16-0, for 76.1%
Subtotal Favs, 72-27-0, for 72.7%
Total all BS Teasers, 166-68-0, for 70.9%
Before we go further, let's eliminate those RFs (they suck). For the 16 year data, we now have 520-198-2, for 72.4% and 145-57-0, for 71.8% for the 5 years of data. Keep in mind that you need 72.4% to BE at -110. So with the exception of the HFs, the rest of these BS teaser candidates don't show much. Now let's look at my non-BS subsets.
Non-BS, 16 years
HF7 to 9, 364-123-19, for 74.7%
RD4.5 to 6, 326-109-2, for 74.9%
Total all Non-BS Teasers, 690-232-21, for 74.8%
Non-BS, 5 years
HF7 to 9, 113-27-2, for 80.7%
RD4.5 to 6, 102-33-1, for 75.6%
Total all Non-BS Teasers, 215-60-3, for 78.2%
If one wanted to look at just the -7 teased down for the last 5 years, 36-7-2, for 83.7%, and the -9, 26-4-0, for 86.7%.
Keep in mind the books are "holding" on those 7s and 9s to guard against BS exposure. That's fine with me!
Now, let's take a look at those HDs 4.5 to 6 and see why I don't have anything to do with them. HD 4.5 to 6 teased 6 points, 16 years of data, 115-66-2 for 63.5%, and last 5 years, 34-25-1 for 57.6%. So Goats is right, HD4.5 to 6 teased up 6 points is historically a terrible subset.
That post doesn't show the HD 4.5-6 subset you were aksing about....unless I'm missing something
Very last paragraph...
Now, let's take a look at those HDs 4.5 to 6 and see why I don't have anything to do with them. HD 4.5 to 6 teased 6 points, 16 years of data, 115-66-2 for 63.5%, and last 5 years, 34-25-1 for 57.6%. So Goats is right, HD4.5 to 6 teased up 6 points is historically a terrible subset.
He's making a list of teaser candidates for each week and then playing every possible 3-team combination from that list at +180. Since teasers/props/etc. aren't supposed to be part of anyone's main record, posters can track them however they want. In reality, someone playing this many teasers should be betting a small fraction of a unit on each combination (if you define a unit as what you would bet on an avg. straight bet) because each individual leg is involved in so many different 3-team combos.
Hope this helps.
You should question the record, it's ridiculous. NFLx and the first week of the season have been unbelievable, I've been betting NFL teasers for about 6 years now and I've never gone through a run like this.
a strong tease this wk using the HF 7-9 would be
Boys to -3
Chargers to -2
Falcons to -1.5
?
You need to be crossing the 3 and 7, so you need to get Dallas down to -2.5, not -3, and Atlanta -6.5 is out there so you'd be better off just playing that, not teasing them. Not sure what lines you're quoting.
5Dimes (and many books nowadays) guards against teasers by manipulating their lines. That's why you'll see something like DAL -9 +105 instead of just -8.5 or -8. They don't want you to be able to cross the 3 and 7 with a 6-point teaser.
I have a google spreadsheet that i use as a guide but honestly once I figure out which teams are in and which teams are out I sit down and plow through all the bets. It's time consuming and annoying but completely worth it.
I found this site. All you need to do is enter the teams and the combo amounts and it will spit it out. It is a formatted rather silly, so I just copied and pasted it to a Word Document. If I implement the strategy, it would make it so much easier to print it out and check them off as I move through the list.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations-calculator.html
n= number of teams
r= type of parlay (2 for two teams, 3 for three teams, etc.)
Is order important? NO
Is repetition allowed? NO
I hope this saves everyone some time.
New england +3, Wash +3, SF +3