durito
durito · Senior Member
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I'm going to dinner, but if I have time later I'll show you a graph of tracks of various random trials at 68%
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Everything has variance. Some beyond your wildest imagination.
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If the plays are all going to win at X% (they aren't but assume they will), then what it's done ytd or last week is irrelevant.
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Do you have a reason you think the system is working better this year? Is there something fundamentally changed within the sport or market?
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(Quote) C...
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You have about a .07% chance of losing any 7 -180 wagers in a row. I don't know what that has to do with anything. Bet enough times and it will happen eventually.
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I answered all your questions nicely, you didn't care.
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(Quote) I've also made well into 7figures sports betting, how about you?
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I've given you enormous amount of insight in your other thread and you just chose to ignore it.
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It's a baseball game not a coin flip. Besides your record in your thread is < 50% not 80%
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(Quote) 37.8568%
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(Quote) Stat questions like these apply to probabilities that are theoretical or easily calculated (flip of fair coin, roulette wheel, etc.) Batting average or anything in sports isn't going to work because a batting average isn't going to remain…
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(Quote) Says a classic statistician. I'm going large on heads though on flip 21 (coin is likely biased). Though obviously I know the point you are making to the OP, if the chance of something is 60% every trial then every trial is that, it has…
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(Quote) Actually this is not possible as nitrogen clones pinnacle with slightly added vig so your record would 100% of the time be better with the pinnacle line.
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(Quote) Just assume there is no value in anything ever would be the best way to approach sdql.
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(Quote) Split data into test/train sets. Train data on train set, test on test set. Repeat.
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(Quote) Well good luck, it's not something I'd ever consider betting.
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So before any lines come out you say I'm betting game x at -180 or better? I'd have severe doubts a major market would be beatable like this, are you testing vs openers? Will you be betting openers
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(Quote) Yes, if it's real eventually it will be incorporated into the market. Dr Bob has hundreds of these angles and can't win anymore. If you have a good theory a better approach is to use the advanced stats you are using to develop a model tha…
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So say you have a good idea. And it has a 5% edge vs market lines. Say other people find this edge (they will eventually) and it's now incorporated into the line before you bet and your edge is now -1%. How do you know? You don't unless you a…
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Are you projecting a fair line or just blindly betting a side based on factors?
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You are still data mining an angle. Maybe it will work for a while, but eventually it will be incorporated in the market and the only way you will know is when you no longer have any money to bet.
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(Quote) Traditional statistics is all about rejecting the null hypothesis. In this case whether the difference between expected return (~66.4% 198/298) and your actual 70.1% is simply due to random chance or if it's actually significant. This …
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(Quote) It is extremely unlikely you will win going forward data mining angles like this. Even if you find something that's statistically significant (p<.05), traditional statistics really doesn't work. 661-282 and the roi is only 5%? What a…
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That Australia move makes even less sense given the lines for the games tmr.
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(Quote) Should be fairly easy for a modeler that knows what they are doing to tell if they have a profitable model. So I just go ahead and assume anyone posting on the forums doesn't.
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(Quote) this
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(Quote) No Asian lines, but BM soccer is much improved lately. Good limits, some team totals and props, and even with full vig they often have the best price on one side, especially money lines.
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Nice job.