FIBA World Cup Basketball thoughts
paddyboy111
Senior Member
The basketball world cup starts soon and it has a weird format that if you finish in the top 2 of 4 teams it doesnt seem to make any difference as to what happens - you play another round with the top 2 from your group and from another group. There is a slight chance that if you tie in THAT round the tiebreaker from the first round would help. Any way, the games are low stakes so I'm looking for upsets and longshots.
China + 150 to win their group: Poland has shit the bed in warm up matches and China has done quite well. They are also the host nation.I would have throght they'd be at -200. You can still get them for +115 but no longer 150. (As an aside Netherlands +15.5 over underpforming Poland looks nice today).
Germany +380 to win its group over France. Germany has done really well and France has been meh in warmup matches. France has had an historical high FIBA ranking which may be influencing here.
Korea to win its group at 200-1. I really like this EV, I think Korea has a good shot here. Russia is banged up, Nigeria in financial turmoil, Argentina has been meh. I think Korea has a 5% chance to pull this off, probably if Arg/Russ/Nigeria each go 1-1.
China in the top 3 in the tournament 250-1. China actually has the easiest path in the tournament to reach the semi-finals. They are the host nation, this is a very strong team, they have been training together longer than any team.
Iran to win its group 80-1. I think Iran is unlikely to beat Spain (maybe 10%) head to head, but if they do, this bet should pay. Iran beat Russia and Jordan easily in qualifiers and lost away to Greece.
Greece in the top 3 in the tournament +275. They are looking sharp, they just took the 3 seed Serbia to OT. It will be fun to watch the Greek Freak on this stage. I put a flier on at 17-1 to win the tournament too. They face USA in the early rounds so wont have to face them in the quarters or semis.
Any other angles here?
China + 150 to win their group: Poland has shit the bed in warm up matches and China has done quite well. They are also the host nation.I would have throght they'd be at -200. You can still get them for +115 but no longer 150. (As an aside Netherlands +15.5 over underpforming Poland looks nice today).
Germany +380 to win its group over France. Germany has done really well and France has been meh in warmup matches. France has had an historical high FIBA ranking which may be influencing here.
Korea to win its group at 200-1. I really like this EV, I think Korea has a good shot here. Russia is banged up, Nigeria in financial turmoil, Argentina has been meh. I think Korea has a 5% chance to pull this off, probably if Arg/Russ/Nigeria each go 1-1.
China in the top 3 in the tournament 250-1. China actually has the easiest path in the tournament to reach the semi-finals. They are the host nation, this is a very strong team, they have been training together longer than any team.
Iran to win its group 80-1. I think Iran is unlikely to beat Spain (maybe 10%) head to head, but if they do, this bet should pay. Iran beat Russia and Jordan easily in qualifiers and lost away to Greece.
Greece in the top 3 in the tournament +275. They are looking sharp, they just took the 3 seed Serbia to OT. It will be fun to watch the Greek Freak on this stage. I put a flier on at 17-1 to win the tournament too. They face USA in the early rounds so wont have to face them in the quarters or semis.
Any other angles here?
Comments
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland (my line Venezuela + 2)
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico (my line Iran - 6)
Tunisia + 28 over Spain (my line Tunisia + 20)
Korea + 23 over Argentina -116 (my line Korea + 12)
Here's my lines for those games you posted. Still about 20 or so prep games left, involving teams in tournament, so they may change slightly.
Venezuela vs Poland (-11.47)
Iran vs Puerto Rico (-6.69)
Tunisia vs Spain (-25.67)
Korea vs Argentina (-20.90)
Thanks ebemiss. This is dead-on the bookie lines. I'm curious were you able to find boxscore data for any of the warmup matches? I could not, it would be very helpful for totals modeling.
My Venezuela line is now Venezuela + 5 after Poland's result today, still indicating value in my book.
I create numbers based off closing lines and totals from info I can track down. Then it's trying to connect teams that have common opponents. Been some work getting to this point.
Try this link for box scores. Looks like if you click score it may take you there.
http://www.fiba.basketball/basketballworldcup/2019/news/tracker-preparation-games-for-the-fiba-basketball-world-cup-2019
Good hit with Netherlands. Had Poland favorite about half as much as they should have been. Line made no sense as bad as they've been.
https://www.eurohoops.net/en/trademarks/918199/guide-to-2019-fiba-world-cup/
August 21 (goes off 6:30 EST on the 22nd)
USA/Australia UNDER 176.5 -115 (my line is 170)
August 31
Italy/Phillipines UNDER 154 (-112) (my line is 145)
Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108) (my line is 139)
previously posted
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland (my line Venezuela + 2)
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico (my line Iran - 6)
Tunisia + 28 over Spain (my line Tunisia + 20)
Korea + 23 over Argentina -116 (my line Korea + 12)
Spain / Dominican Republic UNDER 158 -105
previously posted
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico
Tunisia + 28 over Spain
Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116)
Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112)
Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108)
0-1, -1.15
Turkey/Puerto Rico UNDER 154.5
Serbia -12 over Italy
previously posted
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico
Tunisia + 28 over Spain
Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116)
Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112)
Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108)
0-2, -2.20
Lithuania/South Korea OVER 163
Germany/Japan UNDER 169
USA-13 (-115) over Australia
previously posted
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico
Tunisia + 28 over Spain
Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116)
Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112)
Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108)
1-3, -2.30
Japan + 14 over Turkey
Tunisia +28.5 over Spain
previously posted
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico
Tunisia + 28 over Spain
Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116)
Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112)
Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108)
1-6, -5.65
Philippines + 17.5 over Italy
previously posted
August 31
Venezuela + 12 over Poland
Iran + 6 over Puerto Rico
Tunisia + 28 over Spain
Korea + 23 over Argentina (-116)
Italy/Philippines UNDER 154 (-112)
Iran/Puerto Rico UNDER 151 (-108)
September 1
Japan + 14 over Turkey
Tunisia +28.5 over Spain
1-6, -5.65