not sure what happened in the CFL but something is wrong, I am completely off on all sides and totals, will need to check for some sort of data error or something
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<tbody>
Team
odds
my line
Team
Blue Bombers
-14.5
-11
Argonauts
48.5
52
Tiger-Cats
50.5
52.5
Roughriders
-2.5
-1
Redblacks
53.5
-4
Alouettes
-7.5
51
Eskimos
48.5
54
Stampeders
-1
-5
</tbody>
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BETS
Blue Bombers Over 48.5
Argonauts +14.5
Redblacks +7.5
Stampeders -1
Eskimos Over 48.5
All those bets are looking rough, All the lines are not moving and the ones that are, are going the wrong way! Something is wrong with my CFL and not sure what changed so drastically in a week, been looking at any bad data or something but I dont see anything that sticks out. My CFL betting career might be on hold!
Guida line did not blink LOL hit it again same exact line!
You Def got value on Guida - i didnt touch this fight because to many variables - but +155 off and lines will tighten. You will hear the phrase "styles make fights" all the time - to a degree this is true but also BS when wagering on #s. To a purely #s guy and someone who dosent watch alot of tape this means shit to you.
This is a largely un quanted area in the market and a ton of possibilities for someone with your modeling background. A blend of modeling and conformation thru tape/capping might be the way forward in future as the market will only get more efficient.
I am really confused still on how that line can be like that look at this
Both played the Sun at home
Dream +5 vs Sun
Fever +5 vs Sun
So you figure it should be around -3 -4 Fever because they are kinda equal at home and magic the line -5
in this MMA match that does not match up, I really dont understand that
too much value on Wilson being hurt, Hamby has come in and scored nearly as well and is more deadly from outside than Wilson. I think the adjustment for the Wilson injury is too big.
Normally I would adjust 3 for Wilson but in this situation there is no need for any adjustment at all and really if I was being very safe I might deduct 1 or so, and that would Leave my line at Aces -1 still making +2 a steal. Aces +2 I think is a good deal even though Sparks play really good at home and they are getting some love back from injuries!
Starting to get some value on Guida line moved about 15 cents so far in my direction, thats good. Maybe I will take a stab at a model but there are so many fighters not sure how I will scrape all that and they put some annoying number after the name in the URL which is gonna make scraping so much extra FUN!
not sure what happened in the CFL but something is wrong, I am completely off on all sides and totals, will need to check for some sort of data error or something
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<tbody>
Team
odds
my line
Team
Blue Bombers
-14.5
-11
Argonauts
48.5
52
Tiger-Cats
50.5
52.5
Roughriders
-2.5
-1
Redblacks
53.5
-4
Alouettes
-7.5
51
Eskimos
48.5
54
Stampeders
-1
-5
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
BETS
Blue Bombers Over 48.5
Argonauts +14.5
Redblacks +7.5
Stampeders -1
Eskimos Over 48.5
this is not looking so good, I made a few adjustments but I am a little scared still. I need to do next weeks lines and see what they close at to know, not sure what is the deal right now but I would lay off my CFL stuff for now.
I am wasting my time writing all this crap and no one is even talking to me. I might as well be talking to a wall. I can email with Jets and can chat directly with R40 on Twitter. Conversation is super slow around here. lets talk folks, lets ask questions, lets try and answer questions, lets help each other with the basics no need to give up your secret recipes. Lets chat folks, ask me anything comment on my ideas and or thoughts if nothing else at least pick at the dumb things I say. I feel like I am talking to a wall. I know people are reading this thread, this thread has more views than threads that have been around for 6 months, if you are visiting, engage there are no wrong questions answers or comments UNLESS you make fun of the Broncos, Angels or Nuggets!
I dabble in MMA and have done well lately. I rarely bet big favs and if I do i look for a parlay. There are too many upsets in MMA and all it takes is 1-2 big faves losing and your out all your winnings.
Nunes have been very profitable for me in the past on her come up now shes considered the most dominant female athlete in MMA. you wont find any value there anymore and thats how it goes with most champs until they are dethroned.
I dabble in MMA and have done well lately. I rarely bet big favs and if I do i look for a parlay. There are too many upsets in MMA and all it takes is 1-2 big faves losing and your out all your winnings.
Nunes have been very profitable for me in the past on her come up now shes considered the most dominant female athlete in MMA. you wont find any value there anymore and thats how it goes with most champs until they are dethroned.
do you try and pick winners or do you try and beat the line in the MMA?
do you try and pick winners or do you try and beat the line in the MMA?
do you model or pick by knowledge in MMA?
I pick mainly off of my knowledge of the sport. I feel some fight camps as a whole are better then others and means their fighter goes into the fight more prepared. Of course talent usually reigns. With some fighters you can usually see a them progressing and making their way to the top. Most recently I had my eye on Cejudo and was able to do pretty solid on his last few fights
If I feel strongly about a favorite I try to get down on them much earlier if he/she in my eyes will have the public all over as well because you usually see heavy movement closer to the fight. Or vice verse with a dog.
Danshan,
I check in from time to time and have not followed anyone to know CLV or records. Just curious as to how big a market is the WNBA as I have not followed it. What is the average line move from opener to close and are you usually on the right side of the move? I am assuming the market is much smaller than the NBA. I also assume you have a model and take into account key injuries. I also assume that as the season progresses lines also get tighter. Do you find it gets tougher to handicap as the season progresses? Just a few random questions as to the WNBA as this is the market you seem to be handicapping with Jets. Jets you can chime in also here as you have a WNBA thread.
Thanks in advance
the WNBA market is getting bigger for sure but not even a drop in the bucket compared to the NBA. Lines in the WNBA are getting tougher. I use to get at least 1 bet out of 1 or 2 games, now I get about 1 bet every 4 or 5 games, so its sharpened up a ton.
I do think its absolutely the easiest sport to get line value.
line movement seems way more active on the WNBA over other sports and I am usually on the right side of most bets I make. my avg clv for this season sits at 4.4% before margin and last year was roughly 4.5% for the year before juice
dan , Chuckh ...here are my line for today...and dan pretty close to yours , thats a very good thing , i DO NOT ADJUST FOR INJURIES.
Chi -3.01
min -1.52
Lv 3.39
So if anyone has been reading i WAS NOT adjusting for SOS , the past couple of day i have , I do you massy sos rating , i assume they are anything i could come up with, that being said here is what i did for today..
my model came up with these lines before adjusting for SOS .
Chi -4.39
min 1.69
lv 2.77
using massey SOS, i adjusted 1.38 pts in the chi game because they have chi rating at 0.49 and atl 1.89 = 1.38 which dropped chi from 4.39 to 3.01
My model is stat based and use home and road stats and DO NOT add home court to any number I end up with.
Can't wait to see those numbers when they open , and even though i like my numbers they have not won for me.
Comments
Dream 150.5
Fever -2.5
Dream +4.5
- - - Updated - - -
All those bets are looking rough, All the lines are not moving and the ones that are, are going the wrong way! Something is wrong with my CFL and not sure what changed so drastically in a week, been looking at any bad data or something but I dont see anything that sticks out. My CFL betting career might be on hold!
BET
Dream Under 153.5
You Def got value on Guida - i didnt touch this fight because to many variables - but +155 off and lines will tighten. You will hear the phrase "styles make fights" all the time - to a degree this is true but also BS when wagering on #s. To a purely #s guy and someone who dosent watch alot of tape this means shit to you.
This is a largely un quanted area in the market and a ton of possibilities for someone with your modeling background. A blend of modeling and conformation thru tape/capping might be the way forward in future as the market will only get more efficient.
Both played the Sun at home
Dream +5 vs Sun
Fever +5 vs Sun
So you figure it should be around -3 -4 Fever because they are kinda equal at home and magic the line -5
in this MMA match that does not match up, I really dont understand that
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
8/1
Phoe
Mercury
153
8/1
Conn
Sun
-6
8/1
New
Liberty
151.5
8/1
Dall
Wings
-0.5
8/1
Las
Aces
-2
8/1
Los
Sparks
157
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
BET
8-1
Aces +2
Normally I would adjust 3 for Wilson but in this situation there is no need for any adjustment at all and really if I was being very safe I might deduct 1 or so, and that would Leave my line at Aces -1 still making +2 a steal. Aces +2 I think is a good deal even though Sparks play really good at home and they are getting some love back from injuries!
this is not looking so good, I made a few adjustments but I am a little scared still. I need to do next weeks lines and see what they close at to know, not sure what is the deal right now but I would lay off my CFL stuff for now.
Nunes have been very profitable for me in the past on her come up now shes considered the most dominant female athlete in MMA. you wont find any value there anymore and thats how it goes with most champs until they are dethroned.
do you try and pick winners or do you try and beat the line in the MMA?
do you model or pick by knowledge in MMA?
I pick mainly off of my knowledge of the sport. I feel some fight camps as a whole are better then others and means their fighter goes into the fight more prepared. Of course talent usually reigns. With some fighters you can usually see a them progressing and making their way to the top. Most recently I had my eye on Cejudo and was able to do pretty solid on his last few fights
If I feel strongly about a favorite I try to get down on them much earlier if he/she in my eyes will have the public all over as well because you usually see heavy movement closer to the fight. Or vice verse with a dog.
What works best for me is picking my spots.
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 43px"><col width="42"><col width="83"><col width="50"></colgroup><tbody>
Date
Teams
Lines
8/1
Mystics
-5.5
Storm
157.5
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
there is no room
I check in from time to time and have not followed anyone to know CLV or records. Just curious as to how big a market is the WNBA as I have not followed it. What is the average line move from opener to close and are you usually on the right side of the move? I am assuming the market is much smaller than the NBA. I also assume you have a model and take into account key injuries. I also assume that as the season progresses lines also get tighter. Do you find it gets tougher to handicap as the season progresses? Just a few random questions as to the WNBA as this is the market you seem to be handicapping with Jets. Jets you can chime in also here as you have a WNBA thread.
Thanks in advance
I do think its absolutely the easiest sport to get line value.
line movement seems way more active on the WNBA over other sports and I am usually on the right side of most bets I make. my avg clv for this season sits at 4.4% before margin and last year was roughly 4.5% for the year before juice
<tbody>
Date
City
Teams
Mine
8/3
Minn
Lynx
-1.5
8/3
Indi
Fever
153
8/3
Chic
Sky
-1.5
8/3
Atla
Dream
153.5
8/3
Las
Aces
-6.5
8/3
Dall
Wings
150.5
</tbody>
- - - Updated - - -
My Current Power Rankings
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>
<colgroup><col style="width: 100px"><col width="100"></colgroup><tbody>
Team
Rankings
Mystics
-9.97
Aces
-6.24
Sun
-6.19
Sparks
-2.94
Mercury
-2.17
Storm
-2.29
Lynx
-2.81
Sky
-0.81
Fever
0.52
Wings
1.60
Dream
1.64
Liberty
1.20
</tbody>
Chi -3.01
min -1.52
Lv 3.39
So if anyone has been reading i WAS NOT adjusting for SOS , the past couple of day i have , I do you massy sos rating , i assume they are anything i could come up with, that being said here is what i did for today..
my model came up with these lines before adjusting for SOS .
Chi -4.39
min 1.69
lv 2.77
using massey SOS, i adjusted 1.38 pts in the chi game because they have chi rating at 0.49 and atl 1.89 = 1.38 which dropped chi from 4.39 to 3.01
My model is stat based and use home and road stats and DO NOT add home court to any number I end up with.
Can't wait to see those numbers when they open , and even though i like my numbers they have not won for me.
ny -1.04
la -5.11
was -1.84
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and sorry for all the grammar and missed words in sentences ,I need to do a better job at that as well.