Baseball - MLB - Hits + Runs + Errors
JayJayOkocha
Junior Member
Can anybody elucidate me on whats the rough value of half a point in the MLB - Hits + Runs + Errors market
Comments
My guess is to lay the higher juice at 20c or less but I could be wrong.
since a half-run on or off the 7 for a total is worth 26 to 28 cents, I can't imagine that a half-run on a HRE line of 26 is worth anything close to that.
Check out the OLD TIMER thread, there's a lot more talk on this. I too, thought with the higher juice that betting game totals would be better but I have been doing well with the HRE plays. These are highly correlated but I have noticed in a few games that I played, the game total going over but the HRE hitting under, where I played the under in the prop bet. In the OLD TIMER thread OT does mention his reason for the prop bet being a better bet than the GT. I think he's right.
Which post? The one I remember him stating his dislike of lazy employees while he was Shift Boss.
Hi there. I have seen that thread few times and went through each post. There was mention of it being heavily correlated. Now the thing is about what percentage. I would say it has to be at least 85 percent minimum don't you or the others agree? The other main thing is the high juice compared to the full game total.
I saw his record when he was done posting and it was very good. But did anyone here track how he would have done in his record and units won if he had just played the over or under instead?
He mentioned how if early on a pitcher walks a bunch of batters and gives up a home run, sure the total could be already halfway of the 8 runs etc. But its only 1/5 to the way towards the 25 r h e prop which seems to be a huge advantage. However, he mentioned how certain pitchers veteran pitchers might give up a bunch of hits but then tend to get out of jams. So with them, the under with the total is better than r h e. So i thought it was interesting from both point of views. But im curious what other criteria do ppl look at when betting rhe vs the game total.
Also so there seem to be an edge where if you bet under r h e, its better than betting under full game because few ppl mention total went over but r h e went under. However, what about betting the over r h e? Im guessing this would be teams that get hits and give up hits but have trouble scoring? Because from what is being discussed, seems like r h e are better for unders? But if you bet overs... better for game total than r h e? I notice he seemed to almost always post unders when its r h e. Looking back at his thread, he had to played at least 90 percent unders in the rhe. So i assume he believes edge in unders for rhe but not overs then right?
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Another thing i want to add. In general are the numbers for the RHE pretty consistent and close for the full game total?
Example a total is 7. The RHE is 24. Now let say it was LAD/SF. Now you have another game that is total 7 with Houston/Cleveland. In general, does a 7 almost always get a RHE of 24 or 24.5? Thus it should never be off more than 1 when it comes to RHE right? Such as a game with total of 9 and one with 9.5. The RHE for the 9.5 should almost always be higher than the 9? However, my thoughts are well it shouldn't be since certain pitchers might give up lot of hits but not lot of runs etc.
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Another thing i want to add. In general are the numbers for the RHE pretty consistent and close for the full game total?
Example a total is 7. The RHE is 24. Now let say it was LAD/SF. Now you have another game that is total 7 with Houston/Cleveland. In general, does a 7 almost always get a RHE of 24 or 24.5? Thus it should never be off more than 1 when it comes to RHE right? Such as a game with total of 9 and one with 9.5. The RHE for the 9.5 should almost always be higher than the 9? However, my thoughts are well it shouldn't be since certain pitchers might give up lot of hits but not lot of runs etc.
For me, I have always had a tough time making money in baseball over the many years but since I have been playing these I have been increasing my BR. I thank OT for starting the thread on this.
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What's the significance of that?
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Yeah, a lot of times I'll watch Pinny steam and then catch an offshore sleeping on the juice.
We are discussing correlation?