You'll have to figure out what you are betting on first.
what? I am betting his release number. you are betting on the peak price after the market has "corrected" and we see who ends up with more $ in the end.
RAS makes a play because there is value and you are saying that the market does not over correct or does over correct, how would you know? How would anyone know. the current line was -2.5 say and if RAS takes the day off because they are axhuasted from reading all my posts all day it probably stays at -2 or so whatever but if RAS musters up the strength to finish reading my garbage posts and makes a play now the line closes at +3, Please make sense of that for me anyone especially Vegas, be a smart ass if you want but answer the question, please
what? I am betting his release number. you are betting on the peak price after the market has "corrected" and we see who ends up with more $ in the end.
OK. I will take Nebraska pick versus Akron at even odds.
I can't get into a discussion with danshan i made a promise to my gambling gods that I wouldn't and i dont want to mess up my yearly's EV.
My stance is that there is more value on his release number than there is on the peak number after the market has moved (in a WNBA marketplace that isnt as efficient and a MLB marketplace).
Obviously not talking about a 1 game sample size, so your Nebraska/Akron example doesn't illustrate my point.
Lets do this instead. Ill book you all year against his WNBA picks (you get the peak price after move) - we can discuss privately on twitter if you want.
I can't get into a discussion with danshan i made a promise to my gambling gods that I wouldn't and i dont want to mess up my yearly's EV.
My stance is that there is more value on his release number than there is on the peak number after the market has moved (in a WNBA marketplace that isnt as efficient and a MLB marketplace).
Obviously not talking about a 1 game sample size, so your Nebraska/Akron example doesn't illustrate my point.
Lets do this instead. Ill book you all year against his WNBA picks (you get the peak price after move) - we can discuss privately on twitter if you want.
I think it is cool as Fu%^ the way RAS moves the line but with that much influence, nobody knows if that shit is effecient or not. I also will take that bet if you give me a 5 point swing on any game I will take it betting the other side maybe I am stupid maybe I am not but a 5 point swing is huge in basketball. if its now +3 and goes to -2 ONLY because RAS moved it, I would take the other side for sure at the peak reverse point who wouldnt.
For you people that cant read I repeat RAS is the shit and their numbers as far as I seen are bad ass!
I just do not think RAS is betting at +2.5 because they think its -2.5, I think they probably are 2 or 3 points sharper on most picks they put out but that is only a guess.
VEB's point is that no matter how good you think Chicago +1.5 or +2 might have been today due to possible overreaction to RAS release, it is still never going to be as good as the Atlanta at +2.5 side that was released.
Also, we have won won long term against the closing line in all sports. That is not the same as the peak, but if you are able to identify the peak all the time, then you probably aren't concerned with any of this.
^ this. and by the way this shouldn't even be a controversial opinion
The worst part of it all, is that the people that have a better understanding of how this world works, are so heavily incentivized to just stfu about it and never say a word about anything ever... not only because they cant afford to give away their edge by over-sharing, but also because they are going to be trapped in an endless argument-loop of pain from less sophisticated bettors that think they "know better". So the voices that are left are those of the wannabe sharps and straight up idiots/scammers who take up SO much of the air space that the industry never moves forward and is clogged with misinformation.
i don't like how that came out as it was too condescending and thats not the way i want to be.
my point is that the people who are more savvy in this business are heavily incentivized in never helping the novice bettors get better. its so hard to have an edge for a long period of time! the best of the very best are fighting with each other to extract as much EV from their edges as they can, and they cant risk disclosing info about how they derive their edges with people out in the public because they'd be left without said edge.
thats more than enough reason to never say a word about anything ever.
but what makes it even MORE insane is that the few who actually go ahead and share information with the public (RAS, H, CSH, Old Timer... to name a few of the ones that post here who actually have an edge) have to deal with an onslaught of less sophisticated bettors swarming them with complaints! (we are down 9 units this year how can this be, i cant get the lines you bet, you are too expensive, i don't like how fast the lines move, your website sucks, you aren't transparent enough, why do you bet overnights, whats your model, how do you get your numbers, tell me all your secrets, share share share, etc etc etc) ... that it pushes them even further into just never sharing anything with anyone!
that leaves an enormous white space for complete frauds to act like sharps and spew complete nonsense out there and straight up scam people.
as a community we need to be better than that, and this forum is the perfect place for that to start.
Very nicely said and explained VEB. Just a heads up guys dont go by his 47 posts and join date. A lot of us here came from another place a very long time ago way before BT was born. He knows what hes talking about so leave the ego at the door read what he says with an open mind and I assure you youll learn something. One last thing to say that the market isnt efficient is very naive for lack of a better word. Just keep betting against the major moves and you will go broke. The market gets tougher and tougher year after year. Were way pass the 80s. I wish you GL and you wont find another place like this believe me I know most of them. Great people at most places but BTs is like no other place. Just to be clear nobody is going to take you by the hand And walk you step by step and give you anything of value that they worked very hard for. To tell it truth it will shortly have to be revised anyway.
VEB's point is that no matter how good you think Chicago +1.5 or +2 might have been today due to possible overreaction to RAS release, it is still never going to be as good as the Atlanta at +2.5 side that was released.
Also, we have won won long term against the closing line in all sports. That is not the same as the peak, but if you are able to identify the peak all the time, then you probably aren't concerned with any of this.
I know I never shut up but VeB is a jerk and talks down to everyone. I hate people that think there better and if he had any common sense he would know this. RAS is the best! RAS wins in all sports! I will buy RAS picks if they let me BUT they beat the line because they move the line just like DRH and that is a fact. We beat the line of course you do because you are the one moving it and that in itself is freaking cool but I dont think you should take their CLV as a measuring stick since they have this impact and they know it. NOw if lonely no one tails Danshan sees line value that is real because he does not have guys forking up 5 grand for picks, if these guys pay 5 grand they are not betting 20 bucks on the selections and they are moving the line with their picks.
CLV is king for me but for RAS, DRH and others CLV dont mean shit because they are the one moving it, is that not true?
I know I never shut up but VeB is a jerk and talks down to everyone. I hate people that think there better and if he had any common sense he would know this. RAS is the best! RAS wins in all sports! I will buy RAS picks if they let me BUT they beat the line because they move the line just like DRH and that is a fact. We beat the line of course you do because you are the one moving it and that in itself is freaking cool but I dont think you should take their CLV as a measuring stick since they have this impact and they know it. NOw if lonely no one tails Danshan sees line value that is real because he does not have guys forking up 5 grand for picks, if these guys pay 5 grand they are not betting 20 bucks on the selections and they are moving the line with their picks.
CLV is king for me but for RAS, DRH and others CLV dont mean shit because they are the one moving it, is that not true?
If a line is over corrected someone smart with money will fix it. JFC
I know I never shut up but VeB is a jerk and talks down to everyone. I hate people that think there better and if he had any common sense he would know this. RAS is the best! RAS wins in all sports! I will buy RAS picks if they let me BUT they beat the line because they move the line just like DRH and that is a fact. We beat the line of course you do because you are the one moving it and that in itself is freaking cool but I dont think you should take their CLV as a measuring stick since they have this impact and they know it. NOw if lonely no one tails Danshan sees line value that is real because he does not have guys forking up 5 grand for picks, if these guys pay 5 grand they are not betting 20 bucks on the selections and they are moving the line with their picks.
CLV is king for me but for RAS, DRH and others CLV dont mean shit because they are the one moving it, is that not true?
It is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. They move it because they are good. The reaction is probably excessive. Value is created in some instances. You probably will not do particulary well betting opposite the move. But if RAS loses their edge somewhat or does not have it in a particular sport to begin with, you will make a bundle.
yes they are good but is it true yes or no? Can someone say yes or no and please not the jerks CSH and VEB, Even smart people are deafening when all they do is call people stupid.
yes they are good but is it true yes or no? Can someone say yes or no and please not the jerks CSH and VEB, Even smart people are deafening when all they do is call people stupid.
Your question was answered. CLV always matters regardless of the money behind a certain originator's position. If a line is over corrected the market will react.
yes they are good but is it true yes or no? Can someone say yes or no and please not the jerks CSH and VEB, Even smart people are deafening when all they do is call people stupid.
That their CLV does not mean shit? No that is not true. But it could be. Dr. Bob has not won in a while. The market does not adjust to his releases and betting opposite has probably been profitable. But there are obviously not a lot of people willing to step up against him and the same in true for RAS. But if you like the opposite site of RAS and you get 2 extra points, you have a better bet than you had before. Some will step up and do. Some will back away. To the victor go the spoils.
Dr bob is that dr H or someone else you are talking about?
Dr. Bob is major tout that makes a ton and moves lines in college football and less so college basketball. Dr. Bob Sports. Dropped out of Cal and made his fortune giving gambling advice.
is it a coincidence that since the DrH thread started his CLV has dropped drastically? I am not indicting I am asking
Don't know the first thing about Dr. H but there are some that have said he was never good to begin with. So his CLV could have been the result of followers here and some good performance which is now leveling off.
My 2c. If you play RA at a worse price than posted you will probably still win but remember you will have a worse record and make less money than RA, it has to be. Most of the time the line won't come into play but there will be those times when it does and RA will win or push while you lose.
If RA is a winning service, which we know they are, you will be better taking the worse line than betting the opposite. Just don't expect to do as well as they are.
Comments
what? I am betting his release number. you are betting on the peak price after the market has "corrected" and we see who ends up with more $ in the end.
OK. I will take Nebraska pick versus Akron at even odds.
My stance is that there is more value on his release number than there is on the peak number after the market has moved (in a WNBA marketplace that isnt as efficient and a MLB marketplace).
Obviously not talking about a 1 game sample size, so your Nebraska/Akron example doesn't illustrate my point.
Lets do this instead. Ill book you all year against his WNBA picks (you get the peak price after move) - we can discuss privately on twitter if you want.
I'll take Alabama -4.5 then.
Team X -3 RAS bet team X
Team X +2 RAS did not bet this one
if RAS does not release today what would the closing line have been on atlanta?
Unknown. This is why the betting market is not efficient.
For you people that cant read I repeat RAS is the shit and their numbers as far as I seen are bad ass!
I just do not think RAS is betting at +2.5 because they think its -2.5, I think they probably are 2 or 3 points sharper on most picks they put out but that is only a guess.
Also, we have won won long term against the closing line in all sports. That is not the same as the peak, but if you are able to identify the peak all the time, then you probably aren't concerned with any of this.
The worst part of it all, is that the people that have a better understanding of how this world works, are so heavily incentivized to just stfu about it and never say a word about anything ever... not only because they cant afford to give away their edge by over-sharing, but also because they are going to be trapped in an endless argument-loop of pain from less sophisticated bettors that think they "know better". So the voices that are left are those of the wannabe sharps and straight up idiots/scammers who take up SO much of the air space that the industry never moves forward and is clogged with misinformation.
it really is a shame.
my point is that the people who are more savvy in this business are heavily incentivized in never helping the novice bettors get better. its so hard to have an edge for a long period of time! the best of the very best are fighting with each other to extract as much EV from their edges as they can, and they cant risk disclosing info about how they derive their edges with people out in the public because they'd be left without said edge.
thats more than enough reason to never say a word about anything ever.
but what makes it even MORE insane is that the few who actually go ahead and share information with the public (RAS, H, CSH, Old Timer... to name a few of the ones that post here who actually have an edge) have to deal with an onslaught of less sophisticated bettors swarming them with complaints! (we are down 9 units this year how can this be, i cant get the lines you bet, you are too expensive, i don't like how fast the lines move, your website sucks, you aren't transparent enough, why do you bet overnights, whats your model, how do you get your numbers, tell me all your secrets, share share share, etc etc etc) ... that it pushes them even further into just never sharing anything with anyone!
that leaves an enormous white space for complete frauds to act like sharps and spew complete nonsense out there and straight up scam people.
as a community we need to be better than that, and this forum is the perfect place for that to start.
/endrant
GL
Never say never
CLV is king for me but for RAS, DRH and others CLV dont mean shit because they are the one moving it, is that not true?
If a line is over corrected someone smart with money will fix it. JFC
It is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. They move it because they are good. The reaction is probably excessive. Value is created in some instances. You probably will not do particulary well betting opposite the move. But if RAS loses their edge somewhat or does not have it in a particular sport to begin with, you will make a bundle.
Your question was answered. CLV always matters regardless of the money behind a certain originator's position. If a line is over corrected the market will react.
That their CLV does not mean shit? No that is not true. But it could be. Dr. Bob has not won in a while. The market does not adjust to his releases and betting opposite has probably been profitable. But there are obviously not a lot of people willing to step up against him and the same in true for RAS. But if you like the opposite site of RAS and you get 2 extra points, you have a better bet than you had before. Some will step up and do. Some will back away. To the victor go the spoils.
UNSUBSCRIBED from this thread.
Dr. Bob is major tout that makes a ton and moves lines in college football and less so college basketball. Dr. Bob Sports. Dropped out of Cal and made his fortune giving gambling advice.
Don't know the first thing about Dr. H but there are some that have said he was never good to begin with. So his CLV could have been the result of followers here and some good performance which is now leveling off.
Probably inevitable.
No matter how many times you tell this guy 1 + 1 = 2 he wants to challenge it. Worse when he subsequently says he is trying to learn LOL
If RA is a winning service, which we know they are, you will be better taking the worse line than betting the opposite. Just don't expect to do as well as they are.