Help with a hedge bet please
mjnapco
Member
Hi, I was wondering if someone here whos smarter than me could help me out please.
I have Loyola to win it all for 25.00, it pays 9,500.00
I already hedged (unsuccessfully) on Saturday with Kansas St. -120 for 1500 = -1800
Im currently down 1800
So my question is, what should I do from here?
I want to make sure I recoup at the 1825 for my worst case scenario.
I am thinking of hitting the three remaining teams to win it all, do you guys think I should go about it that way? The current odds are below.
Villanova +105
Michigan +275
Kansas +340
Or if you dont think thats what I should do then what do you think would be a better option. Any help would be greatly appreciated
Thanks a lot!
I have Loyola to win it all for 25.00, it pays 9,500.00
I already hedged (unsuccessfully) on Saturday with Kansas St. -120 for 1500 = -1800
Im currently down 1800
So my question is, what should I do from here?
I want to make sure I recoup at the 1825 for my worst case scenario.
I am thinking of hitting the three remaining teams to win it all, do you guys think I should go about it that way? The current odds are below.
Villanova +105
Michigan +275
Kansas +340
Or if you dont think thats what I should do then what do you think would be a better option. Any help would be greatly appreciated
Thanks a lot!
Comments
In (micro-)Economic Theory, those $1800 are called 'sunk costs'. Any decision you make going fprward, while trying to also recoup the $1800 will most probably lead to a worse result.
Thus the only thing you should look at is the $25-future-bet-to-win-$9500, and how you should hedge that, without taking into account the $1800 you lost already.
Good Luck
I tried 1000 different scenarios and I'm pretty sure you're right, I think I'm totally screwed. Makes me pretty depressed, oh and stupid too!
Please look up "sunk costs" or "sunk cost fallacy" in economic theory,
this will help explain my previous post. I'm not saying he can't get the money back, all I'm saying is that per the sunk cost theory, he shouldn't be reasoning or strategizing from the loss he already incurred, but only from the money he can still make on his future-bet.
On this forum there have been multiple discussions as to *when-to-hedge*. The result of those discussions have mainly been twofold:
1. Only bet the other side, when you deem that bet to be +EV.
2. In the case of a 'life-changing' or a 'significant-bankroll-expanding' amount, then it would become a personal choice of the holder of the ticket to hedge, depending on his/her own propensity to risk.
Rest assured that unless mnjapco viewed Kansas State as a +EV bet, the hedge was a very bad decision. All he stood to lose was $25. Given that there were 3 games left at that point and that Loyola would be an underdog in almost every single one of them, he shouldn't have reasoned from *I can win $9500* but should have leaned more toward *I lose only $25, should they lose this game vs Kansas State*. The $1800 bet on Kansas State clearly points to him thinking from the *I can win $9500* angle.
As to this particular case itself, I'd gladly hear your (nicalanow) strategy on how to break even, given the current $1825 he's down in the hole.
edit: I might have misunderstood your comment nicalanow.
In that case there's not a whole lot to explain haha
To win $1800 on the team Loyola plays next, he'd have to bet $4320 as the line is -240
Unless Loyola win it all off course
Or if Loyola gets a pretty sizable lead in either game and the live line drops to around even for those opponents.
I can understand your feelings,
rest assured many of us have gone through 'dumb decisions' to become better at sportsbetting. Take the lesson and move on. Just like a 'sunk cost'
Rooting for ya in the next game!
Thanks a lot for the support, and thanks for your assistance. I was going crazy trying dozens of different scenarios. I was looking at parlays, open ended parlays, hitting all three teams left other than Loyola to win it all. Hitting just Michigan to win it all and then waiting to see what happens. Literally nothing provided me with a good outcome.
All right! Glad to hear it wasnt a total disaster. And great timing on the 10-point lead. Happy Easter!