it looks like to me when you are closest to 0 CLV you do best
way high sucks and way low sucks, optimal is right at 0
You are reading too much into small samples. There are only 122 plays with CLV of 20+, and you also want to look at the percentages instead of "cents" anyway. The line move from -155 to -175 which is "+20" is actually less than the line move from +100 to -110 which is "+10"
so you are saying that if he did not have a 58% or whatever win% he would have made money on CLV alone?
I am saying that your sample sizes are too small to draw firm conclusions and it's only by random chance he did better on games with less CLV than ones with more.
its 3 years of stats I am not sure how many you need to have a good sample size but shoot I will die in another 4 or 5 years so not sure how to get enought then?
ok so DR H we will congratulate you when you do another 18 years of games so we can have a good number and know that you know what you are doing or I bet most people like me will just buy your stuff now. I want those results and would love to even come close to that but IMHO the numbers do no represent profit came from CLV, no where in those stat does it show me that. it seems like win% is your golden egg and if I am wrong just show me with DR H stats how that is wrong
ok so DR H we will congratulate you when you do another 18 years of games so we can have a good number and know that you know what you are doing or I bet most people like me will just buy your stuff now. I want those results and would love to even come close to that but IMHO the numbers do no represent profit came from CLV, no where in those stat does it show me that. it seems like win% is your golden egg and if I am wrong just show me with DR H stats how that is wrong
Hot Chicken Sandwiches With Pickles n Slaw
Ingredients
6 to 8 boneless, skinless chicken thighs, pounded
6 to 8 pieces boneless, skinless chicken breasts, cut in half on a bias
Salt and pepper
2 cups buttermilk
2 tablespoons Franks Red Hot or Crystal Hot Sauce
For the slaw:
1/2 cup pickle brine*
1 tablespoon superfine/quick-dissolve sugar or Acacia honey
3 tablespoons vegetable oil
1 pound (about 6 cups) shredded white cabbage
1 teaspoon celery seed
1/4 cup dill, coarsely chopped
Salt and pepper
For dredging chicken:
3 cups all-purpose flour
Salt and pepper
1 tablespoon granulated garlic
1 tablespoon granulated onion
1 tablespoon paprika
Vegetable oil, for frying
4 eggs
For the sauce:
1 stick of butter
4 tablespoons cayenne pepper
2 tablespoons dark brown sugar
1 tablespoon paprika
2 teaspoons granulated garlic
2 teaspoons granulated onion
*Homemade or store-bought sliced pickles, B&B or dill
Sliced good quality white bread
Season chicken with salt and pepper, cover with buttermilk and hot sauce, and refrigerate overnight.
Whisk up slaw dressing, toss with cabbage, celery seed and dill. Season with salt and pepper and refrigerate until ready to serve.
Heat a few inches of frying oil in Dutch oven or tabletop fryer to 350°F.
Whisk up flour dredge in a shallow dish then whisk eggs together in a separate dish and season with salt and pepper. Coat chicken first in flour and shake off excess. Dip into egg and coat in flour one more time. Add to hot oil and fry 8-10 minutes until cooked through.
For the sauce, melt butter in a saucepot and whisk in dried spices. Paint hot chicken with sauce and serve on bread with slaw and pickles.
<0% clv: n=244, 53.27% adjusted, +4.58 units, +1.75% ROI
0% clv: n=116, 51.17% adjusted, -2.94 units, -2.4% ROI
.01 through 1% clv: n=149, 58% adjusted, +3.43 units, +10.77% ROI
1.01 through 2% clv: n=233, 58.5% adjusted, +7.61 units, +11.72% ROI
2.01 through 3% clv: n=215, 54.4% adjusted, +13 units, +3.91% ROI
3.01 through 4% clv: n =209, 58% adjusted, +24.79 units, +10.94% ROI
4.01 through 5% clv: n=140, 64.7% adjusted, +36.16 units, +23.83% ROI
5.01 and up clv: n=92, 60.28% adjusted, +15.26 units, +15.6% ROI
CLV is the driver and stabilizes much quicker than win %, so it's the best indicator we have. More CLV is better always. On a long enough timeline, you'd see that, but when broken into buckets like this, these are pretty small samples so you get a lot of variation. Still, you can get an idea.
The concept is so simple, it baffles me when people argue about it or don't understand it. If something I buy increases in value after I buy it, that's a good thing, whether it's bitcoin, a stock, a house, Yankees -120, etc. The more the value of it increases, the better off you are. If I buy a game for -120 and at close it's -140, I've bought something for less than it's worth. The result of that game is irrelevant in the long term. Repeat. Profit.
I don't know a single person that wins at this that isn't beating the closer on the regular.
If given a choice to tail blindly the following 2 forum posters, which would you choose if this is all you know about them:
I agree 100% with buy low sell high . I am just trying to get a grip on how much of a role CLV plays in reality.
I see if the line closes at say 140 and you bought at 170
140 42%
170 37%
I see the huge difference
i just was trying to see that in your numbers
I am a firm believer of line value
We know that closing line is very close to implied probability based on historic stat data, so if we played a 1000 games at CL we would end up slightly hit or juice hit but if we had gotten clv in that same 1000 results we would have had profit with the same number of wins
I think lots of people come in and just say ok "he said its CLV" and they just agree and cant even back up the argument. I wanted to look at your numbers and see how the CLV helped the results and honestly I was surprised how it was not super obviously apparant with the great ROI you had, that was all I was saying
as you all know I am working on my clv numbers every single day and applying as many methods to get as close as possible to the closing number in advance so I know which games to play and at what rate. truly eye opening experience and I am very pleased with my results up to this point. I really need to figure out how the big miss I am getting on a game or two here or there is happening , I cant undertsand what I am doing wrong there
I think lots of people come in and just say ok "he said its CLV" and they just agree and cant even back up the argument. I wanted to look at your numbers and see how the CLV helped the results and honestly I was surprised how it was not super obviously apparant with the great ROI you had, that was all I was saying
CLV doesn't 'help the results'.....positive CLV shows that you have an edge over the market numbers.
Comments
You are reading too much into small samples. There are only 122 plays with CLV of 20+, and you also want to look at the percentages instead of "cents" anyway. The line move from -155 to -175 which is "+20" is actually less than the line move from +100 to -110 which is "+10"
I am saying that your sample sizes are too small to draw firm conclusions and it's only by random chance he did better on games with less CLV than ones with more.
is this a riddle forum? again I ask a simple question and literally no one will answer it, just a bunch of cluck cluck
Hot Chicken Sandwiches With Pickles n Slaw
Ingredients
6 to 8 boneless, skinless chicken thighs, pounded
6 to 8 pieces boneless, skinless chicken breasts, cut in half on a bias
Salt and pepper
2 cups buttermilk
2 tablespoons Franks Red Hot or Crystal Hot Sauce
For the slaw:
1/2 cup pickle brine*
1 tablespoon superfine/quick-dissolve sugar or Acacia honey
3 tablespoons vegetable oil
1 pound (about 6 cups) shredded white cabbage
1 teaspoon celery seed
1/4 cup dill, coarsely chopped
Salt and pepper
For dredging chicken:
3 cups all-purpose flour
Salt and pepper
1 tablespoon granulated garlic
1 tablespoon granulated onion
1 tablespoon paprika
Vegetable oil, for frying
4 eggs
For the sauce:
1 stick of butter
4 tablespoons cayenne pepper
2 tablespoons dark brown sugar
1 tablespoon paprika
2 teaspoons granulated garlic
2 teaspoons granulated onion
*Homemade or store-bought sliced pickles, B&B or dill
Sliced good quality white bread
Season chicken with salt and pepper, cover with buttermilk and hot sauce, and refrigerate overnight.
Whisk up slaw dressing, toss with cabbage, celery seed and dill. Season with salt and pepper and refrigerate until ready to serve.
Heat a few inches of frying oil in Dutch oven or tabletop fryer to 350°F.
Whisk up flour dredge in a shallow dish then whisk eggs together in a separate dish and season with salt and pepper. Coat chicken first in flour and shake off excess. Dip into egg and coat in flour one more time. Add to hot oil and fry 8-10 minutes until cooked through.
For the sauce, melt butter in a saucepot and whisk in dried spices. Paint hot chicken with sauce and serve on bread with slaw and pickles.
<0% clv: n=244, 53.27% adjusted, +4.58 units, +1.75% ROI
0% clv: n=116, 51.17% adjusted, -2.94 units, -2.4% ROI
.01 through 1% clv: n=149, 58% adjusted, +3.43 units, +10.77% ROI
1.01 through 2% clv: n=233, 58.5% adjusted, +7.61 units, +11.72% ROI
2.01 through 3% clv: n=215, 54.4% adjusted, +13 units, +3.91% ROI
3.01 through 4% clv: n =209, 58% adjusted, +24.79 units, +10.94% ROI
4.01 through 5% clv: n=140, 64.7% adjusted, +36.16 units, +23.83% ROI
5.01 and up clv: n=92, 60.28% adjusted, +15.26 units, +15.6% ROI
CLV is the driver and stabilizes much quicker than win %, so it's the best indicator we have. More CLV is better always. On a long enough timeline, you'd see that, but when broken into buckets like this, these are pretty small samples so you get a lot of variation. Still, you can get an idea.
The concept is so simple, it baffles me when people argue about it or don't understand it. If something I buy increases in value after I buy it, that's a good thing, whether it's bitcoin, a stock, a house, Yankees -120, etc. The more the value of it increases, the better off you are. If I buy a game for -120 and at close it's -140, I've bought something for less than it's worth. The result of that game is irrelevant in the long term. Repeat. Profit.
I don't know a single person that wins at this that isn't beating the closer on the regular.
If given a choice to tail blindly the following 2 forum posters, which would you choose if this is all you know about them:
A: 100 games, -15 units, +2.5% CLV
B: 100 games, +25 units, 0 CLV
The answer is A and it's not even a tough decision at all. CLV leads to results in the long term.
I see if the line closes at say 140 and you bought at 170
140 42%
170 37%
I see the huge difference
i just was trying to see that in your numbers
I am a firm believer of line value
this line right here really truly shows the power of CLV assuming a 3% juice mark
this line also shows how not having CLV hurt you, got a good win% and ROI was down
CLV doesn't 'help the results'.....positive CLV shows that you have an edge over the market numbers.
I was able to get down about 85-90% on a computer (less on my phone), for anywhere between $500-$1K/unit.
Would love to hear some suggestions for next year. I take it finding a local is the best route.
Wth r u OD'ing on Manischewitz wine.
A the broncos sacks
B the dodgers runs
hey obi you never answered whats the difference?
and yes I was right the dodgers had more runs!
Record 1-0 perfection in my teasers and CLV% 100% perfect