if I was at 64% WL I would still be losing slightly and I lost 6 or 7 or whatever in a row, that was crazy.
My real original question is this if I win over 10 years at 69% and this season I am at 79%, what should I reasonably expect for the remainder of the year
A 69%
B 59% to make up for the hot 79%
C anything past history has no relevance on future performance
I was thinking to increase my wager amount to try and take advantage of the small ROI I am trying to get but I am scared to increase my wager because of the 79% when it should only be 69% and will the remainder of the season kill me because i went in higher and am now seeing the downside of that 79%
if I was at 64% WL I would still be losing slightly and I lost 6 or 7 or whatever in a row, that was crazy.
My real original question is this if I win over 10 years at 69% and this season I am at 79%, what should I reasonably expect for the remainder of the year
A 69%
B 59% to make up for the hot 79%
C anything past history has no relevance on future performance
I am probably not qualified to truly answer that but it has times where ROI goes up in history for short periods and I only run it from May to end of reg season
LOL I assumed you would say that but if stats and history dont help handicap, what does? how can you create value in a line if the past does not tell you where the value in the line is
like ok my brain thinks this
Dodgers are -180 favorites and to make money they need to win 70% of the time for a small ROI
but just using line only they win at 66% of the time when -180 faves so I add a few what i think are important facts about recent history to find a situation where they are -180 faves and win at 70% of the time. Does that make sense or is that as retarded as everything else I have said ???
It seems that you created this thread to reinforce the rhetoric behind your SDQL system (whatever that means). Going full circle back to your original thread, you still seem to be confused in thinking that there is any predictive value in SDQL generated information. You do seem to understand the notion of value where you need to compare the market's win % vs. your own win %. There seems to be a disconnect where you are assuming what a win % would be from SDQL somehow.
I do not think anyone has said my system is a failure, they have said sdql is garbage.
and what I am saying is that I think when the line is X and blah blah blah is X and blah is X that I will win and I am only using sdql to check my thought of that to the past results
I do not think anyone has said my system is a failure, they have said sdql is garbage.
and what I am saying is that I think when the line is X and blah blah blah is X and blah is X that I will win and I am only using sdql to check my thought of that to the past results
How are you forming your line? That is literally the only thing that matters.
I am saying drinking a beer of course
man the yankees are good at home as a big favorite and playing a team that has lost their last 3
and i go to sdql and say ok what does the line have to be on the yankeees to make me money and anytime the line is below that point i bet it.
of course that is not my actual formula but I hope you get the point
if the yankees win at 72% of the time in my scenario and the line is -175 or better i bet it because that is positive ROI, generally of course not talking specifically with the numbers and wl ratio
I think your regular guy like me that says "man the Cubs are good at home when big favorite, i always bet that" and if you look back using sdql you will see that is a big loser. Sdql will prove to that guy even though that is a cool bet it is a loser
the cubs win 5 out of 8 in that scenario and that is not enough to cover the juice and the line
Comments
My real original question is this if I win over 10 years at 69% and this season I am at 79%, what should I reasonably expect for the remainder of the year
A 69%
B 59% to make up for the hot 79%
C anything past history has no relevance on future performance
C...
LOL I assumed you would say that but if stats and history dont help handicap, what does? how can you create value in a line if the past does not tell you where the value in the line is
so how will it get back to 68% ???
Dodgers are -180 favorites and to make money they need to win 70% of the time for a small ROI
but just using line only they win at 66% of the time when -180 faves so I add a few what i think are important facts about recent history to find a situation where they are -180 faves and win at 70% of the time. Does that make sense or is that as retarded as everything else I have said ???
but Dodgers -180 line with a few tweaks shows a 70% wl ratio and that add value to that line so I bet it
Do you think that would be wise given multiple smart people are telling you that what you're doing is -EV when you seem to think it's easy money?
and what I am saying is that I think when the line is X and blah blah blah is X and blah is X that I will win and I am only using sdql to check my thought of that to the past results
How are you forming your line? That is literally the only thing that matters.
man the yankees are good at home as a big favorite and playing a team that has lost their last 3
and i go to sdql and say ok what does the line have to be on the yankeees to make me money and anytime the line is below that point i bet it.
of course that is not my actual formula but I hope you get the point
the cubs win 5 out of 8 in that scenario and that is not enough to cover the juice and the line
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
durito is a professional..listen to everything he says. The key word is listen because that's how one learns.
Simple as that.