Friday 4/28 Pittsburgh -104
Now if Hanson can catch the ball and maybe hit the ball and Polanco could run to first base on grounders like he wants to get before the ball we may have a winner. Ngoepe is going to bring life to this party.
wouldn't the handicap be more effective analyzing the actual matchup he's facing? the 1v1 matchups vs the batters etc... seems to me that overall trend capping is a thing of the past. I am all for thinking he is going to have a X% better performance than normal but capping just based on days rest seems -EV to me. Using it as part of your capping, sure.
I'm an angle, situational, scheduling type player and I also make my own numbers and will play accordingly. If you think you can break down a card have at it to me it's a waste of time. Break down that game for me. What's handicapping your going to break down position by position?
Let me ask why would you think I didn't consider other factors. Make your bones then come back and tell me how and what to bet.
wow wow wow calm your tits. I wasn't attacking you or your style lol. i was just pointing out that those trends you cited before were good info to be considered as PART of the capping equation - was just skeptical to making wagers just based on that. not sure why that would make you act so defensive. I respect your work and wish u nothing but success. didn't mean for my comment to come across as negative.
wouldn't the handicap be more effective analyzing the actual matchup he's facing? the 1v1 matchups vs the batters etc... seems to me that overall trend capping is a thing of the past. I am all for thinking he is going to have a X% better performance than normal but capping just based on days rest seems -EV to me. Using it as part of your capping, sure.
Your making assumptions on how I arrived at playing the Yankees. In fact your telling me that I played the Yankees based solely on a trend but you really don't have any idea how I arrived at that play. Try being cute with someone else. Then you speak of -EV. Do you think every bet you make you have an edge? Please understand I'm not interested in what you have to say.
Its funny OT ...if you listen to the yanks broadcasters they always talk about tanaka and how he prepares for games, and like you said 5 days rest ,light out...a whole lot of other pitchers just like him...i know you know who they are ...keep them on sked and great ....get them off their reg sked and you have to be careful...
great job.
on the hout game i lost last night, i dont feel bad about it, i know my model had that game way way way closer even getting +144 ...and it was...not a game where i see shouldve been run up so high.
Hey its one game, grind grind grind....
Have a great weekend ....sr day for baseball tomorrow ..last day of season , no playoffs in conf , the team was bad but promising young freshman and returning players , my son get the start in one of the games....the team we are playing is ranked in top 15 in country....i think they are putting the kid in a bad spot ...we play a dh today against a not so good team....as a dad , id rather see him pitch today then tomorrow considering they took him out of rotation and screwed him up a bit....
wouldn't the handicap be more effective analyzing the actual matchup he's facing? the 1v1 matchups vs the batters etc... seems to me that overall trend capping is a thing of the past. I am all for thinking he is going to have a X% better performance than normal but capping just based on days rest seems -EV to me. Using it as part of your capping, sure.
How many batter vs. pitcher matchups do you think have happened enough times to have enough statistical relevance to be used as a worthwhile handicapping tool? A quick scan of today's games produces only two matchups where the hitter has even 50 PA's against the starting pitcher, Adam Jones vs. Sabathia and Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Scherzer. The bulk of the schedule has less than 20 and game situations have certainly dictated how some of those were pitched. That's what you want to use? Not for me, I think the time can be better spent. There's more than one way to skin a cat though so if what you're doing is working don't change it.
That's all you got. How did Mr. Nose or Contra now it's vegasendboss whatever that is. how did he get back in. Also my buddy is Pooper Scooper on the next block.
Have a great weekend ....sr day for baseball tomorrow ..last day of season , no playoffs in conf , the team was bad but promising young freshman and returning players , my son get the start in one of the games....the team we are playing is ranked in top 15 in country....i think they are putting the kid in a bad spot ...we play a dh today against a not so good team....as a dad , id rather see him pitch today then tomorrow considering they took him out of rotation and screwed him up a bit....
take it light ot
Good spot for him. No lose situation unless he handles it bad. Pitches well, it sticks in the coaches head for next fall. Doesn't throw well but doesn't pout or let it bother him, coach will like that. When you walk off the mound, no one should be able to tell what the score is by looking at you. You get more of a feel of what you have to work with by seeing how a player reacts when things are going bad. Whatever happens, just handle it right and he will be ok.
Good spot for him. No lose situation unless he handles it bad. Pitches well, it sticks in the coaches head for next fall. Doesn't throw well but doesn't pout or let it bother him, coach will like that. When you walk off the mound, no one should be able to tell what the score is by looking at you. You get more of a feel of what you have to work with by seeing how a player reacts when things are going bad. Whatever happens, just handle it right and he will be ok.
Excellent Advice. A man is judged by his failures not by his successes.
am still nervous ,but you took the edge off a bit.....thank you guys for the great advise ...ill pass it along to him ...i did told him and some of his great coaches told him the same thing about if a scout or anyone else comes to that field they shouldnt know if your winning or losing the game.....
This is not correct. Nothing bothers me more than grammar police except grammar police who don't know grammar. You're is "you are." So OT, don't listen to this guy. Also, who cares if it was wrong?
This is not correct. Nothing bothers me more than grammar police except grammar police who don't know grammar. You're is "you are." So OT, don't listen to this guy. Also, who cares if it was wrong?
In that context, it is you're..."You are" making assumptions, not "your" making assumptions. I normally wouldn't care, but nothing bothers ME more than someone incorrectly criticizing the grammar police. :shifty:
In that context, it is you're..."You are" making assumptions, not "your" making assumptions. I normally wouldn't care, but nothing bothers ME more than someone incorrectly criticizing the grammar police. :shifty:
The first one is wrong, the second one is correct. I figured he was referring to the most recent usage.. "Your son"
In that context, it is you're..."You are" making assumptions, not "your" making assumptions. I normally wouldn't care, but nothing bothers ME more than someone incorrectly criticizing the grammar police. :shifty:
Your definately wrong irregardless of what you think.
OT , stevieY very proud this morning, going up against a 20-2 team in conf and 32-8 and ranked nationally my son pitched lights out for 5 innings ...giving up no runs and 2 hits...the 6th he gave up 3 runs 2 earned....could've been much better, we were up 1 zip top of 6th 1st and 3rd 1 out , ground ball to 3rd the kid could've very easily went home but decided to go to first and threw the ball away ... a hit there and a hit there ...3 runs...he leaves after the 6th ...i think thats a pretty good outing for a freshmen going against a team that had 4 kids drafted .
After the game my son tells me ,tell THAT GUY who gives you advise thank you ...really the first thing he says to me ...thought you might want to know that .
OT , stevieY very proud this morning, going up against a 20-2 team in conf and 32-8 and ranked nationally my son pitched lights out for 5 innings ...giving up no runs and 2 hits...the 6th he gave up 3 runs 2 earned....could've been much better, we were up 1 zip top of 6th 1st and 3rd 1 out , ground ball to 3rd the kid could've very easily went home but decided to go to first and threw the ball away ... a hit there and a hit there ...3 runs...he leaves after the 6th ...i think thats a pretty good outing for a freshmen going against a team that had 4 kids drafted .
After the game my son tells me ,tell THAT GUY who gives you advise thank you ...really the first thing he says to me ...thought you might want to know that .
Good to hear. There are so many talented players who can't handle being pushed. They are used to dominating everyone and they can't handle a little competition. Some people reach that level earlier than others but you can't get any better without being pushed. You push thru that level and get to the next level and do it again. We live in an age where every game, every at bat, every pitch is over analyzed, and people care too much about what is being said so they want it easy. People used to say Michael Jordan was afraid to fail. I disagree, he wasn't afraid to fail. People who are afraid to fail run away from tough spots. You can't fail if you aren't involved. Some of my favorite stories/memories aren't my personal biggest games, they are my toughest opponents, and there were plenty. I don't much about the weaker teams.
"ground ball to 3rd the kid could've very easily went home but decided to go to first and threw the ball away"
How was the ball hit and what direction? Why didn't he try to turn 2? If it was hit hard, should have tried for 2, something slow, yeah, home if he had a shot.
My son turned 7 today so I am starting the journey. Since last summer, he wakes me up almost every day with his baseball glove and bat saying "dad, teach me something new about baseball". I think I was lucky that I played long enough for him to see me play so he knows I have a clue. My brother's kids would not listen to him until it was too late. They went to a baseball camp and the coach asked if he was their dad and they were surprised the coach knew him. He was done playing before they were old enough to see him so they didn't think he knew what he was talking about. When they came home, they listened, but they were a little behind at that point.
Good to hear. There are so many talented players who can't handle being pushed. They are used to dominating everyone and they can't handle a little competition. Some people reach that level earlier than others but you can't get any better without being pushed. You push thru that level and get to the next level and do it again. We live in an age where every game, every at bat, every pitch is over analyzed, and people care too much about what is being said so they want it easy. People used to say Michael Jordan was afraid to fail. I disagree, he wasn't afraid to fail. People who are afraid to fail run away from tough spots. You can't fail if you aren't involved. Some of my favorite stories/memories aren't my personal biggest games, they are my toughest opponents, and there were plenty. I don't much about the weaker teams.
"ground ball to 3rd the kid could've very easily went home but decided to go to first and threw the ball away"
How was the ball hit and what direction? Why didn't he try to turn 2? If it was hit hard, should have tried for 2, something slow, yeah, home if he had a shot.
My son turned 7 today so I am starting the journey. Since last summer, he wakes me up almost every day with his baseball glove and bat saying "dad, teach me something new about baseball". I think I was lucky that I played long enough for him to see me play so he knows I have a clue. My brother's kids would not listen to him until it was too late. They went to a baseball camp and the coach asked if he was their dad and they were surprised the coach knew him. He was done playing before they were old enough to see him so they didn't think he knew what he was talking about. When they came home, they listened, but they were a little behind at that point.
Sorry to highjack your thread OT.
No worries. Always interested in good conversation and opinions.
My son was the same way , and as lazy as i was i never once told him no when asking to go to the field and hit balls to him as SS or go outside on the street and throw the ball....i miss those little league days .....StevieY get him ready for cooperstown now....great great tournament , teams from all around the country take part ...small fields , lots of long balls..12 year olds tournament is the best , lots of celebrities sponsor teams, there was a team from calf ,the kids were 12 going on 16, beards ...big boys ... kids didnt even know each other, they were all recruited just to play and all bills paid, they were there to win it....we played and had to play 5 games in one day all back to back...
Getting back to the game , i think in that spot either he forgot there was a guy on first or how many outs there was ...it was hit pretty hard right at him , not sure what happened ...and am taking the high side saying it couldve been better ....it couldve been way worse....in the 2nd game they hit 4 homers .
My son was the same way , and as lazy as i was i never once told him no when asking to go to the field and hit balls to him as SS or go outside on the street and throw the ball....i miss those little league days .....StevieY get him ready for cooperstown now....great great tournament , teams from all around the country take part ...small fields , lots of long balls..12 year olds tournament is the best , lots of celebrities sponsor teams, there was a team from calf ,the kids were 12 going on 16, beards ...big boys ... kids didnt even know each other, they were all recruited just to play and all bills paid, they were there to win it....we played and had to play 5 games in one day all back to back...
Getting back to the game , i think in that spot either he forgot there was a guy on first or how many outs there was ...it was hit pretty hard right at him , not sure what happened ...and am taking the high side saying it couldve been better ....it couldve been way worse....in the 2nd game they hit 4 homers .
Comments
Now if Hanson can catch the ball and maybe hit the ball and Polanco could run to first base on grounders like he wants to get before the ball we may have a winner. Ngoepe is going to bring life to this party.
Let me ask why would you think I didn't consider other factors. Make your bones then come back and tell me how and what to bet.
Your making assumptions on how I arrived at playing the Yankees. In fact your telling me that I played the Yankees based solely on a trend but you really don't have any idea how I arrived at that play. Try being cute with someone else. Then you speak of -EV. Do you think every bet you make you have an edge? Please understand I'm not interested in what you have to say.
great job.
on the hout game i lost last night, i dont feel bad about it, i know my model had that game way way way closer even getting +144 ...and it was...not a game where i see shouldve been run up so high.
Hey its one game, grind grind grind....
Have a great weekend ....sr day for baseball tomorrow ..last day of season , no playoffs in conf , the team was bad but promising young freshman and returning players , my son get the start in one of the games....the team we are playing is ranked in top 15 in country....i think they are putting the kid in a bad spot ...we play a dh today against a not so good team....as a dad , id rather see him pitch today then tomorrow considering they took him out of rotation and screwed him up a bit....
take it light ot
You're
OT thanks , am frigging nervous as hell, might have a few cocktails before game....
How many batter vs. pitcher matchups do you think have happened enough times to have enough statistical relevance to be used as a worthwhile handicapping tool? A quick scan of today's games produces only two matchups where the hitter has even 50 PA's against the starting pitcher, Adam Jones vs. Sabathia and Asdrubal Cabrera vs. Scherzer. The bulk of the schedule has less than 20 and game situations have certainly dictated how some of those were pitched. That's what you want to use? Not for me, I think the time can be better spent. There's more than one way to skin a cat though so if what you're doing is working don't change it.
That's all you got. How did Mr. Nose or Contra now it's vegasendboss whatever that is. how did he get back in. Also my buddy is Pooper Scooper on the next block.
Good spot for him. No lose situation unless he handles it bad. Pitches well, it sticks in the coaches head for next fall. Doesn't throw well but doesn't pout or let it bother him, coach will like that. When you walk off the mound, no one should be able to tell what the score is by looking at you. You get more of a feel of what you have to work with by seeing how a player reacts when things are going bad. Whatever happens, just handle it right and he will be ok.
Excellent Advice. A man is judged by his failures not by his successes.
thanks again gentlemen
I like that quote
Welcome back Pali
This is not correct. Nothing bothers me more than grammar police except grammar police who don't know grammar. You're is "you are." So OT, don't listen to this guy. Also, who cares if it was wrong?
Here's a link if you don't believe me: http://writingexplained.org/your-vs-youre-difference
In that context, it is you're..."You are" making assumptions, not "your" making assumptions. I normally wouldn't care, but nothing bothers ME more than someone incorrectly criticizing the grammar police. :shifty:
The first one is wrong, the second one is correct. I figured he was referring to the most recent usage.. "Your son"
Your definately wrong irregardless of what you think.
After the game my son tells me ,tell THAT GUY who gives you advise thank you ...really the first thing he says to me ...thought you might want to know that .
I love you Benny
Good to hear. There are so many talented players who can't handle being pushed. They are used to dominating everyone and they can't handle a little competition. Some people reach that level earlier than others but you can't get any better without being pushed. You push thru that level and get to the next level and do it again. We live in an age where every game, every at bat, every pitch is over analyzed, and people care too much about what is being said so they want it easy. People used to say Michael Jordan was afraid to fail. I disagree, he wasn't afraid to fail. People who are afraid to fail run away from tough spots. You can't fail if you aren't involved. Some of my favorite stories/memories aren't my personal biggest games, they are my toughest opponents, and there were plenty. I don't much about the weaker teams.
"ground ball to 3rd the kid could've very easily went home but decided to go to first and threw the ball away"
How was the ball hit and what direction? Why didn't he try to turn 2? If it was hit hard, should have tried for 2, something slow, yeah, home if he had a shot.
My son turned 7 today so I am starting the journey. Since last summer, he wakes me up almost every day with his baseball glove and bat saying "dad, teach me something new about baseball". I think I was lucky that I played long enough for him to see me play so he knows I have a clue. My brother's kids would not listen to him until it was too late. They went to a baseball camp and the coach asked if he was their dad and they were surprised the coach knew him. He was done playing before they were old enough to see him so they didn't think he knew what he was talking about. When they came home, they listened, but they were a little behind at that point.
Sorry to highjack your thread OT.
No worries. Always interested in good conversation and opinions.
Getting back to the game , i think in that spot either he forgot there was a guy on first or how many outs there was ...it was hit pretty hard right at him , not sure what happened ...and am taking the high side saying it couldve been better ....it couldve been way worse....in the 2nd game they hit 4 homers .
thanks again StevieY ...SORRY OT
Getting back to the game , i think in that spot either he forgot there was a guy on first or how many outs there was ...it was hit pretty hard right at him , not sure what happened ...and am taking the high side saying it couldve been better ....it couldve been way worse....in the 2nd game they hit 4 homers .
thanks again StevieY ...SORRY OT