Quants explain this please, price of 379 on la and 5-1
showme1953
Member
I know numbers rule, but how can kersshaw be 350 or better at this time of the year and then how can the dodgers be 5-1 for the series. I see no way to make any reasonable analysis, since there are no prior stats. And don't tell me about spring training how good or bad anyone looked. Can anybody name who had the best spring record last year, or who had the highest batting average.
Last year the phillies did me well early especially with the mets and I do remember the dodgers outscoring the padres 25-0 in the first three games. But the prices were half of what they are now. How does anybody else view this.
Last year the phillies did me well early especially with the mets and I do remember the dodgers outscoring the padres 25-0 in the first three games. But the prices were half of what they are now. How does anybody else view this.
Comments
Anyways, you're right - spring training is largely if not entirely irrelevant, but we have all the prior stats we need at the individual level from prior seasons and projecting them forward. For example, I don't need to know how Dexter Fowler's spring is going or wait for him to accumulate stats on the Cardinals to know what he is or at least to make a reasonable projection for him this year. So we can work from the individual level upwards (bottom up modelling) and generate probabilities, which we convert to lines, then look for edges.
Good luck!