23-16, 59% ATS, +5.4 units unweighted, +4.5 units weighted
(please excuse, making note to myself, for the record, should be 24-15 given Western Ky. historic horrid ATS beat to CMU, and frankly 25-14 given Pitt loss to Hou which was largest 4Q comeback in bowl history -- CMU and imo Hou were not the right side despite winning side)
As for last night's game, wow. I thought the wrong team was favored, but I never would have guessed that OSU would've ran away with it. Elliott is incredible, 246 rush yards at an amazing 6.8 yards per carry (!) but even more amazing is he ran for 6.9 yards per carry for the entire season! And he's just a sophomore.....
btw, OSU won the game despite a -3 net turnover margin, which to me is the most amazing stat of the game and speaks to OSU's dominance. As I wrote in a post I put up in the General Discussion section a few months ago, in football, turnovers are the most important stat when it comes to the eventual outcome of the game. See chart below:
The above applies to NFL but can't imagine it's drastically different for NCAA. A team that has just a +1 turnover advantage in a game ends up winning the game 69% of the time by an average margin of 6 points. Oregon had a +3 TO margin and typically such a team should win game 91% of the time and yet Oregon didn't come close.... wow..... In reality, OSU won by 35 points (actual 22 plus 13 in above chart). Wow.
23-16, 59% ATS, +5.4 units unweighted, +4.5 units weighted
(please excuse, making note to myself, for the record, should be 24-15 given Western Ky. historic horrid ATS beat to CMU, and frankly 25-14 given Pitt loss to Hou which was largest 4Q comeback in bowl history -- CMU and imo Hou were not the right side despite winning side)
As for last night's game, wow. I thought the wrong team was favored, but I never would have guessed that OSU would've ran away with it. Elliott is incredible, 246 rush yards at an amazing 6.8 yards per carry (!) but even more amazing is he ran for 6.9 yards per carry for the entire season! And he's just a sophomore.....
btw, OSU won the game despite a -3 net turnover margin, which to me is the most amazing stat of the game and speaks to OSU's dominance. As I wrote in a post I put up in the General Discussion section a few months ago, in football, turnovers are the most important stat when it comes to the eventual outcome of the game. See chart below:
The above applies to NFL but can't imagine it's drastically different for NCAA. A team that has just a +1 turnover advantage in a game ends up winning the game 69% of the time by an average margin of 6 points. Oregon had a +3 TO margin and typically such a team should win game 91% of the time and yet Oregon didn't come close.... wow..... In reality, OSU won by 35 points (actual 22 plus 13 in above chart). Wow.
It's that time of year again.... Every bowl season I pick every game. I've done well fairly consistently, last year going 23-16 ATS but should have been 25-14 ATS, read above. Here it goes for this year's bowls:
New Mexico +9
BYU +3 -115
Ohio +7.5
GA State +1.5
Ark State +2
Comments
23-16, 59% ATS, +5.4 units unweighted, +4.5 units weighted
(please excuse, making note to myself, for the record, should be 24-15 given Western Ky. historic horrid ATS beat to CMU, and frankly 25-14 given Pitt loss to Hou which was largest 4Q comeback in bowl history -- CMU and imo Hou were not the right side despite winning side)
As for last night's game, wow. I thought the wrong team was favored, but I never would have guessed that OSU would've ran away with it. Elliott is incredible, 246 rush yards at an amazing 6.8 yards per carry (!) but even more amazing is he ran for 6.9 yards per carry for the entire season! And he's just a sophomore.....
btw, OSU won the game despite a -3 net turnover margin, which to me is the most amazing stat of the game and speaks to OSU's dominance. As I wrote in a post I put up in the General Discussion section a few months ago, in football, turnovers are the most important stat when it comes to the eventual outcome of the game. See chart below:
Net turnover margin, win pct., Margin of victory
+1 69% 6 points
+2 83% 10 points
+3 91% 13 points
+4 97% 17 points
The above applies to NFL but can't imagine it's drastically different for NCAA. A team that has just a +1 turnover advantage in a game ends up winning the game 69% of the time by an average margin of 6 points. Oregon had a +3 TO margin and typically such a team should win game 91% of the time and yet Oregon didn't come close.... wow..... In reality, OSU won by 35 points (actual 22 plus 13 in above chart). Wow.
It's that time of year again.... Every bowl season I pick every game. I've done well fairly consistently, last year going 23-16 ATS but should have been 25-14 ATS, read above. Here it goes for this year's bowls:
New Mexico +9
BYU +3 -115
Ohio +7.5
GA State +1.5
Ark State +2
Temple -2.5
Ga Southern +7
SD State -3
Mia-Fla +2.5
Washington -8
Duke +3
Tulsa +14
Nebraska +6.5
Central Mich +4.5 -115
Baylor +4 -115
Nevada +3.5
Tex Tech +7
Auburn -3
NC St +6
Louisville -4 -115
USC -3.5
Alabama -10
Michigan -3.5 -115
Notre Dame +6 -115
Iowa +6
Ole Miss -7.5
Kan St +13 -115
Oregon -7
West Va -2
I'm very confident Bama wins tomorrow SU, however I'm less confident about laying 7. That said -7 should more than -300 and yet it's not, bargain.