I don't think we're following the idea correctly.
Could you explain it again and how you decide which games to buy back if it moves against you?
1. i recognize that i know nothing.
2. i trust the opinions of the thousands of bettors shaping the final price
3. i play a few games early based on overnight moves
4. i check in 10 minutes before game time.
5. i now sell my position anytime that i have -CLV or finish Flat. well over 100 games that finished Flat and those are 42% winners and losing long term so i am selling those moving forward.
6. there is no thinking, by and large. 95% of the time i do what the market tells me.
the idea is simple and encourages ridicule i'm sure, but it works, very well. i hereby nominate me for nobel peace price for gambling, that is how revolutionary this elegant solution is.
it is an idea built on everything we learn...market is efficient long term, +CLV is the key to winning long term
only thing i did was realize (light bulb moment) to maximize earnings i need only to limit my downside. what constitutes my downside? any line that moves against me, or stays Flat now.
my apologies if anyone is waiting for a sales pitch...that ain't me. never recruited from BT for my handicapping service years back and not selling anything now. power to the people!!!
it is an idea built on everything we learn...market is efficient long term, +CLV is the key to winning long term
Here is the thing...you're saying it right here yourself!!! You're making all of these plays right before a game starts that will obviously have zero CLV, and have already had the value sucked out of them by those that played it at a better line.
Why do you think that these plays will win over the long haul when they go against your "+CLV is the key to winning long term" comment?
Tommy, I think you misunderstood him. he is buying to cover those games at the close which moved against his plays.
Here is the thing, if he finds himself buying to cover late means his overnite or early model predictions are not strong forward looking predictors thus causing the buy to covers on the wrong sides which he played at the start.
EDIT: let me rephrase that. He is buying to cover on the right side late because he failed to be on the right side early
Tommy, I think you misunderstood him. he is buying to cover those games at the close which moved against his plays.
Here is the thing, if he finds himself buying to cover late means his overnite or early model predictions are not strong forward looking predictors thus causing the buy to covers on the wrong sides which he played at the start.
EDIT: let me rephrase that. He is buying to cover on the right side late because he failed to be on the right side early
I understand exactly what he's doing. What I'm asking is, why would those late plays be +EV? It's not like he's arbing his early plays or something, or even just hitting some type of "undo" button on them. Instead he's playing them AFTER they've moved.
Since I always love the coin toss example...it's like he made the initial play at +102 on "heads" on a coin toss, thinking there was value in it. Sometime during the day, the market found out that it's actually a biased coin that's being tossed, and it actually has a 2/3 chance of landing on tails. The new line is -220/+180 on tails/heads. Yea, that +102 bet on heads sucks now, but you're not going to make money long term by paying the -220 on tails to make up for it. You're best option long term (I'd think) is to just sit tight on heads.
Yes, he is reverse arbing and losing a small % to get out of the play because the market moved against his play by closing time.
They are not + EV and the sample size he is showing is small. I want to see him show a profit going forward lets say 1 to 3 years from now. The reverse arb juice alone will eat him alive, besides the point that market movers don't win at the rate he suggests will also eat away at his profits.
It's a no win situation longterm.
Comments
Could you explain it again and how you decide which games to buy back if it moves against you?
YTD
w/o options +3.18 Units
w/options +18.90 Units
+CLV 64.93% of games
1. i recognize that i know nothing.
2. i trust the opinions of the thousands of bettors shaping the final price
3. i play a few games early based on overnight moves
4. i check in 10 minutes before game time.
5. i now sell my position anytime that i have -CLV or finish Flat. well over 100 games that finished Flat and those are 42% winners and losing long term so i am selling those moving forward.
6. there is no thinking, by and large. 95% of the time i do what the market tells me.
the idea is simple and encourages ridicule i'm sure, but it works, very well. i hereby nominate me for nobel peace price for gambling, that is how revolutionary this elegant solution is.
it is an idea built on everything we learn...market is efficient long term, +CLV is the key to winning long term
only thing i did was realize (light bulb moment) to maximize earnings i need only to limit my downside. what constitutes my downside? any line that moves against me, or stays Flat now.
my apologies if anyone is waiting for a sales pitch...that ain't me. never recruited from BT for my handicapping service years back and not selling anything now. power to the people!!!
Here is the thing...you're saying it right here yourself!!! You're making all of these plays right before a game starts that will obviously have zero CLV, and have already had the value sucked out of them by those that played it at a better line.
Why do you think that these plays will win over the long haul when they go against your "+CLV is the key to winning long term" comment?
Here is the thing, if he finds himself buying to cover late means his overnite or early model predictions are not strong forward looking predictors thus causing the buy to covers on the wrong sides which he played at the start.
EDIT: let me rephrase that. He is buying to cover on the right side late because he failed to be on the right side early
I understand exactly what he's doing. What I'm asking is, why would those late plays be +EV? It's not like he's arbing his early plays or something, or even just hitting some type of "undo" button on them. Instead he's playing them AFTER they've moved.
Since I always love the coin toss example...it's like he made the initial play at +102 on "heads" on a coin toss, thinking there was value in it. Sometime during the day, the market found out that it's actually a biased coin that's being tossed, and it actually has a 2/3 chance of landing on tails. The new line is -220/+180 on tails/heads. Yea, that +102 bet on heads sucks now, but you're not going to make money long term by paying the -220 on tails to make up for it. You're best option long term (I'd think) is to just sit tight on heads.
They are not + EV and the sample size he is showing is small. I want to see him show a profit going forward lets say 1 to 3 years from now. The reverse arb juice alone will eat him alive, besides the point that market movers don't win at the rate he suggests will also eat away at his profits.
It's a no win situation longterm.
Or maybe revisit his model for flaws