SJPicks WNBA Thread
sweetjones55
Senior Member
Creating new thread for my WNBA Picks. Two WNBA picks are pending that were posted in my NBA thread yesterday. Lots of good line movement on these thus far.
Atlanta Dream -4.5 (x1)
Washington Mystics -4.5 (x1)
Betting Talk Life Time WNBA Record: 8-4 (67%) +3.6 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Weighted Record: 18-9 (67%) +12.5 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Unweighted Record: 18-9(67%) +8.1 UNITS
Atlanta Dream -4.5 (x1)
Washington Mystics -4.5 (x1)
Betting Talk Life Time WNBA Record: 8-4 (67%) +3.6 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Weighted Record: 18-9 (67%) +12.5 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Unweighted Record: 18-9(67%) +8.1 UNITS
Comments
1-2 -0.2 units CLV +1.75 so far on season.
Not including the -1.5 pts of CLV for half of a basketball game, right? When considering a 3 gm sample, it's pretty important to note that move as it was MAJOR market disagreement.
I follow Right Angle Sports grading philosophy. I have never counted 1Q's, 1H's, 2H's into my official CLV numbers. It would be highly misleading and a misinterpretation of my CLV as a 1Q/Half line can never move 3+ points like a full game/total line can.
Noting that one of the three positions you've been on so far (that is not included in your stated CLV avg.) went MAJORLY against you is misleading? LOL!
(And you're right about one thing: a halftime line moving 1.5 points is worth A LOT more than the 2.0 pt and 1.5 pt moves that you accrued for full game positions. So stating that your CLV is 1.75 is misleading. It makes it look like you are decisively beating the market early on. You are not and it should be noted for those considering whether they want to follow you.)
Valid point. Still significant market disagreement that is being hidden and thus misrepresents early ability to beat the market.
Good luck this season, SJ
Just some sharp dudes pointing out facts and I'm sure Sweet Water Jones or whatever his name is can handle getting called out and if not then he's not as sharp as he wants people to believe. It happen to be a vaild discussion and I think that went over your head. Nobody was beating him up just pointing out facts.
I understand your argument but at the same time I have released 1Q/1H plays that have moved a lot in my favor in terms of CLV and I've never factored in. My CLV would be much higher if I included 1Q/1H/2H movements into my official tallies. But I have never incorporated those CLV's into my official numbers so I am just simply keeping it consistent going forward.
Minnesota by 24. Current record is 2-2 -0.2 Units, CLV +1.17.
Lynx win by 15. Current Season record is 3-3 -0.2 Units +1.9 CLV
Think that should be -0.3u.
Thanks, will update.
All Sports Betting Talk Weighted Record: 21-12 (64%) +12.2 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Unweighted Record: 21-12 (64%) +7.8 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Full Game Closing Line Value Analysis
Closing Line Value: +1
Beat Close: 23 Times
Pushed Close: 5 Times
Lost Close: 1 Time
Lifetime BettingTalk WNBA Record 11-7 (61%) +3.3 UNITS
* (Typo: This years total is -0.3, not -0.2)
Great post, thanks!