NHL Futures (or what the hell are you guys waiting for)
homerplayer
Senior Member
I cannot recall a year when such an incredible amount of parity (seemingly) has created such juicy odds this late in the season. You all know how to shop for best numbers, but I just have some 5D here for illustration purposes, which has the NY Rangers as favorites to win the Cup at a spectacularly high +830.
Who isn't willing to lay down 1 or 2 Units total across 5 teams? We are not looking to hit it big here, just a grind out a profit. And I am stupid enough to label this free money.
Strike that.
That was too bold a claim.
I did lock up the following while hoping for better prices on 2 other teams.
Chi +900
Mon +1250
Pit +1450
As always, thoughts and insights and items offered for debate welcomed. GL all.
Who isn't willing to lay down 1 or 2 Units total across 5 teams? We are not looking to hit it big here, just a grind out a profit. And I am stupid enough to label this free money.
Strike that.
That was too bold a claim.
I did lock up the following while hoping for better prices on 2 other teams.
Chi +900
Mon +1250
Pit +1450
As always, thoughts and insights and items offered for debate welcomed. GL all.
Comments
unsure what you saw or when you went. odds pretty much the same as when i posted, except the Rangers are getting hammered:
New York Rangers +675
Chicago Blackhawks +900
New York Islanders +950
Anaheim Ducks +950
Minnesota Wild +1000
Los Angeles Kings +1100
St Louis Blues +1100
Montreal Canadiens +1200
Nashville Predators +1200
Tampa Bay Lightning +1300
Pittsburgh Penguins +1400
Boston Bruins +1500
Detroit Red Wings +1600
Washington Capitals +3000
Vancouver Canucks +3300
Winnipeg Jets +5000
Calgary Flames +5000
San Jose Sharks +6000
and i hit the Rangers 2 days later, on 3.16 as follows:
3/16/15 7:03pm Pending 3/16/15 7:00pm Hockey NHL Stanley Cup 2014-2015 - New York Rangers +810
blues were the other team i liked. hit them at +975. has since moved to +1100!!! bastards!!!
with this thread, trying to convey that these numbers are out of whack (compare them to nba futures) if, and only if, you believe, as i do, that the nhl playoffs is not as wide open as 'experts' suggest it is.
it simply isn't. when i can get the favorite where a .25 unit wager would return more than 2 units, i'm in. GL.
i did put a few bucks on rangers though
luck
now that the season has gone final we can dig deeper into the logic (if any) behind the 5 choices, and if any would be dropped at this point. we should start with Benn winning 'scoring' title, a misnomer if there has ever been one as it the lowest point total to win in almost 50 years (save for strike/lockout seasons). now i am not a very smart man, but i am a student of history. so what can we learn from the last few years of Cup Finals.
GAA of winners with most recent first:
1, 1, 2, 1, 6, 17, 1, 7
so with scoring at a near all time low, think such an indicator only gains in strength. defense may not win any more in the nfl but it sure as shit seems to in the NHL. and of course in our never ending pursuit to find additional insight we can toss another defensive category in there, the PK, again most recent first:
3, 3, 1, 16, 4, 8, 8, 5
of course one could debate correlation between PK and GAA, which would be fine. however our (my) main goal is to make sense of the seemingly wide open playoffs, eliminate some teams and build a portfolio that would carry a positive expected return. for simplicity's sake, will only highlight the five mentioned earlier in this thread with current odds as well
format is as follows: GAA, PK, Team, Odds
1, 7 Mon 1050
2, 10 Chi 855
3, 6 NYR 475 (kicked the shit out of that closer)
5, 8 St L 720
10, 3 Pit 1550
only team in the top 10 GAA makes me nervous is those pesky Wild from Minnesota. however, the following would only be mutually exclusive to the western conference if anyone wanted to throw down a flyer or two for Wild to face following teams in finals:
NYR +2650
Mon +4500
Pit +7400
GL
the GAA of your past 5 Cup winners with most recent are now
2
1
1
2
1
feelin like the cris carter of BT now, all i do is win...