Betting Talk

Atlantis MLB Season Wins vs. Locals Season Wins

ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
edited February 2014 in Sports Betting
Hey guys

Could use some help although I am pretty sure on what to do. My local has roughly 12 MLB Season Win Totals that are different from the Atlantis. They range from 2 wins to 6 wins off. Am I pretty safe hitting all the Totals off by 3+ wins or is the Atlantis that soft with their openers? Any help would be greatly appreciated! There are 4 that are off by 4.5 Wins, thinking about max betting those. Thanks guys!

E

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Could you be more specific as to which teams?
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Houston, Minnesota, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Thanks for the response Obi! Interested in your thoughts.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Atlantis:

    Houston 57.5
    Minnesota 65.5
    Kansas City 85.5
    Cincinnati 87.5

    What are the numbers from your local and which way are you leaning? I admit that 6 games off is a lot.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Houston 64, Minnesota 71, KC 80, Cincinnati 83.5
  • keywest813keywest813 Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    ericvanden wrote: »
    Houston, Minnesota, Kansas City and Cincinnati. Thanks for the response Obi! Interested in your thoughts.

    Stay away from Minnesota. They added 2 "starters". Yeah...that should help. Look at the projected starting line-up. Ugly. The Miracle might score more runs than the Twins.

    Avoid the Twins at all costs.

    Just my two cents worth.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    I'm using the Atlantis as the more reliable/sharper lines. I would go Houston under 64, Minnesota under 71, KC over 80, Cincinnati over 83.5.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Just a quick view on the Houston numbers from last year:
    W-L: 51-111
    Pythagorian Expected W-L: 55-107
    Record in 1 run games: 18-36
    vs own division: 25-51
    vs others: 26-60

    They have hit rock bottom and I'm expecting their record to improve. Even though there are almost no known names on their roster. I would bet the over at Atlantis.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    ericvanden wrote: »
    I'm using the Atlantis as the more reliable/sharper lines. I would go Houston under 64, Minnesota under 71, KC over 80, Cincinnati over 83.5.

    I believe they lost on their season totals last year isn't it? Which is a good thing for you.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Yeah so do I but does that mean they are 15 wins above last year? I just have a hard time seeing a book that is off by that much. Id love to middle but I don't have that option. Was just curious as to what others thought as 4+ wins seems to be a lot, even though its the first book to crack open the MLB Wins.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    ericvanden wrote: »
    but does that mean they are 15 wins above last year?

    Now I understand you.
    Here is my explanation as to the numbers I just gave. Houston under performed their Pythagorian record by 4 wins. So this year, if they score and allow the same amount of runs, they might be at 55 wins if things normalize, and they might even get to 57 or 58 if they get a little bit more lucky in 1-run games where their record was 18-36. That's based on regressional expectations alone. A more in-depth look at their players/pitchers and their numbers can reveal more. They're still just in their second year in the AL, so indeed, 64 wins might be too much. I do like the amount of young talent they have though.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    Now I understand you.
    Here is my explanation as to the numbers I just gave. Houston under performed their Pythagorian record by 4 wins. So this year, if they score and allow the same amount of runs, they might be at 55 wins if things normalize, and they might even get to 57 or 58 if they get a little bit more lucky in 1-run games where their record was 18-36. That's based on regressional expectations alone. A more in-depth look at their players/pitchers and their numbers can reveal more. They're still just in their second year in the AL, so indeed, 64 wins might be too much. I do like the amount of young talent they have though.

    Yeah Im not trying to analyze the teams as much as I am trying to figure out if Atlantis post solid enough numbers to use as a reference point against a locals lines. Id think that if they've had onoy one losing season, that its a fairly strong indicator that it is. Seriously appreciate your input Obi. Just not sure how much edge Im getting. Locals lines will have changed before Pinny or Bookmaker open their openers. (not sure when that is)
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    LVH posted Sunday 2/16/14
    2014 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL REGULAR SEASON WINS

    DIAMONDBACKS 80

    BRAVES 87.5

    ORIOLES 78

    RED SOX 87.5

    CUBS 68.5

    WHITE SOX 77

    REDS 83.5

    INDIANS 80

    ROCKIES 75.5

    TIGERS 89.5

    MARLINS 69.5

    ASTROS 63.5

    ROYALS 79.5

    ANGELS 87.5

    DODGERS 93.5

    BREWERS 79.5

    TWINS 71.5

    METS 73.5

    YANKEES 85.5

    A'S 89

    PHILLIES 76

    PIRATES 84.5

    PADRES 78.5

    GIANTS 85.5

    MARINERS 80.5

    CARDINALS 91.5

    RAYS 87.5

    RANGERS 86.5

    BLUE JAYS 79.5

    NATIONALS 87.5
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited February 2014
    Seems like Ron gave you the simple solution above. I don't know shit about betting MLB, let alone futures, but I have to assume that you should be using LVH for the current "sharper" numbers although I'm not sure how sharp they are this early (i.e. the market likely hasn't fully sharpened them up yet).
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Here are some lines from sportsbook.ag I wouldn't consider them sharp but something to compare to(sorry I don't know how to format them)

    TeamTotal
    Arizona Diamondbacks o80 (-115) u80 (-115) Atlanta Braves o87.5 (-115) u87.5 (-115) Baltimore Orioles o78.5 (-125) u78.5 (-105) Boston Red Sox o88 (-115) u88 (-115) Chicago Cubs o69 (-115) u69 (-115) Chicago White Sox o77 (-115) u77 (-115) Cincinnati Reds o83.5 (-115) u83.5 (-115) Cleveland Indians o80.5 (-115) u80.5 (-115) Colorado Rockies o76.5 (-115) u76.5 (-115) Detroit Tigers o89.5 (-115) u89.5 (-115) Houston Astros o64 (-115) u64 (-115) Kansas City Royals o80.5 (-120) u80.5 (-110) Los Angeles Angels o87.5 (-115) u87.5 (-115) Los Angeles Dodgers o93.5 (-115) u93.5 (-115) Miami Marlins o69.5 (-115) u69.5 (-115) Milwaukee Brewers o80 (-115) u80 (-115) Minnesota Twins o71 (-115) u71 (-115) New York Mets o73.5 (-115) u73.5 (-115) New York Yankees o86.5 (-115) u86.5 (-115) Oakland Athletics o89 (-115) u89 (-115) Philadelphia Phillies o76 (-115) u76 (-115) Pittsburgh Pirates o84 (-115) u84 (-115) San Diego Padres o79 (-115) u79 (-115) San Francisco Giants o86 (-115) u86 (-115) Seattle Mariners o81 (-115) u81 (-115) St Louis Cardinals o91 (-115) u91 (-115) Tampa Bay Rays o87.5 (-115) u87.5 (-115) Texas Rangers o86.5 (-115) u86.5 (-115) Toronto Blue Jays o79.5 (-115) u79.5 (-115) Washington Nationals o87.5 (-115) u87.5 (-115)
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited February 2014
    Thanks guys. Looks like there are some serious gaps between the Atlantis and LVH.
  • hoff21hoff21 Member
    edited February 2014
    Those Atlantis numbers are long gone. They moved each one 2 full games on a nickel bet and another 1.5 games on a rehit.
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