Betting Talk

NCAAB Projected Lines For Friday, November 8th

tone10tone10 Member
edited November 2013 in Sports Betting
Some of you may know me from the old Beyond the Bets forum where I used to post daily MLB projected lines from time to time. Going to do the same for NCAA Basketball when I have the time. These projections are made using a variety of tools, including Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency numbers, my own power rankings, and some general intuition and feel.

Friday, November 8th

Oklahoma vs. Alabama -4.5

TCU vs. SMU -8.5

Colorado vs. Baylor -3.5

Boston College @ Providence -4

Maryland vs. Connecticut -5

Delaware @ Richmond -8.5

Illinois State @ VCU -16

Cornell @ Syracuse -23

Missouri State @ Old Dominion -2

Miami OH @ Notre Dame -16.5

Oregon @ Georgetown -9

Buffalo @ Texas A&M -6.5

Detroit @ South Alabama -5

Wisconsin Milwaukee @ Loyola Chicago -6

James Madison @ Virginia -17

Louisiana Monroe @ Kansas -28

St. John's vs. Wisconsin -3

Troy @ Mississippi -19

Texas State @ Houston -7.5

Texas Arlington @ Boise State -15.5

USC @ Utah St. -7

Oakland @ North Carolina -19

NC Wilmington @ Iowa -25

UC Davis @ Portland -6

Fresno State @ UC Irvine PK

Cal Poly @ Arizona -15.5

UC Riverside @ San Diego State -18

Pacific @ Nevada -4.5

Louisiana Tech @ St. Mary's -8

Drexel @ UCLA -10.5

Air Force -2 vs. Army

The Citadel @ VMI -10

Florida International vs. Eastern Kentucky -2.5

Youngstown State -6.5 @ Kennesaw State

Grand Canyon vs. Loyola Marymount -7.5

South Dakota State @ San Diego -3.5

Tennessee State @ Hawaii -5

Western Michigan vs. New Mexico State -4

Appalachian State @ NC State -13.5

Davidson @ Duke -15.5

Monmouth @ Hofstra -6.5

Wofford @ Georgia -6.5

Jacksonville State @ Bradley -9.5

SIU Edwardsville @ Arkansas -17.5

Nebraska Omaha @ Northern Illinois -1

Southeast Missouri State @ Saint Louis -17.5

Murray State @ Valparaiso -6.5

Northern Colorado @ Kansas State -14

Tennessee Martin @ Wyoming -16

Weber State @ BYU -8

Portland State @ UNLV -18

Comments

  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Thank you. Do you mind posting your numbers for the Lamar vs butler game on November 9th.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Thanks... anyone see any rotation schedules out yet
  • tone10tone10 Member
    edited November 2013
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Thank you. Do you mind posting your numbers for the Lamar vs butler game on November 9th.

    There won't be a line since Lamar is in an unlined conference, but I have it at about Butler -24.
  • tone10tone10 Member
    edited November 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    Thanks... anyone see any rotation schedules out yet

    Here you go:

    http://www.madduxsports.com/college-basketball-lines.php
  • tone10tone10 Member
    edited November 2013
    Just realized the Oregon/Georgetown game is in Seoul on a neutral court. That line should actually be around Georgetown -5.5.
  • jgislandjgisland Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    I follow the Pac12 pretty closely -
    I do a projection system based on a variety of factors, kenpom, dan hanner, my own power ratings all based on PPP all weighted for HCA and tempo

    We're in the same range on:
    CU/Baylor - I've got it at Baylor -2.5
    Drexel/UCLA at -10

    I'm a little different than you on
    USC/Utah St - I've got that at Utah St -11.5 (utah st has one of the biggest HCA in all of CBB).
    Oregon/Gorgetown -3.5
    Cal Poly/Arizona -21
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2013
    tone10 wrote: »
    There won't be a line since Lamar is in an unlined conference, but I have it at about Butler -24.

    It's on Fox Sports 2, so I think that we might see it up at a few books.
  • tone10tone10 Member
    edited November 2013
    jgisland wrote: »
    I follow the Pac12 pretty closely -
    I do a projection system based on a variety of factors, kenpom, dan hanner, my own power ratings all based on PPP all weighted for HCA and tempo

    We're in the same range on:
    CU/Baylor - I've got it at Baylor -2.5
    Drexel/UCLA at -10

    I'm a little different than you on
    USC/Utah St - I've got that at Utah St -11.5 (utah st has one of the biggest HCA in all of CBB).
    Oregon/Gorgetown -3.5
    Cal Poly/Arizona -21

    Good stuff.

    I give Utah State a higher home court value than the standard as well, and that is factored in my line. But feel like double-digts is too much for two teams that are pretty evenly matched.

    Made a mistake on my original Oregon/Georgetown line as I thought it was @ Georgetown. I've revised it to Georgetown -5.5 on a neutral court in Seoul.

    My opinion is 21 is too much for Zona to be laying to Poly, but won't be the first time I was wrong.
  • jgislandjgisland Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    tone10 wrote: »
    Good stuff.

    I give Utah State a higher home court value than the standard as well, and that is factored in my line. But feel like double-digts is too much for two teams that are pretty evenly matched.

    Made a mistake on my original Oregon/Georgetown line as I thought it was @ Georgetown. I've revised it to Georgetown -5.5 on a neutral court in Seoul.

    My opinion is 21 is too much for Zona to be laying to Poly, but won't be the first time I was wrong.

    21 is probably too much for Zona, agreed. These are purely what excel is throwing out at me, I didn't massage them. Poly plays about as slow as you get, so the score will be closer than.

    I've got Utah St rated quite a bit higher than USC - low 50's for Utah St and in the 150's for Utah St, that with the Utah St. HCA is why i've got that so bit.

    Obviously first day of the season, I could be way off.......
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    underwraps wrote: »
    Thanks... anyone see any rotation schedules out yet

    I use this one year after year and it never lets me down

    https://secure.donbest.com/shop/skeds_basketball_hockey.html
  • jgislandjgisland Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    Oregon just suspended Artis and Ben Carter. Artis is probably worth a couple of points, be interesting so see where the Georgetown/Oregon line opens at now.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Here is what kenpom is projecting:

    Alabama -4
    Southern Methodist -8
    Baylor -4
    Providence -3
    Connecticut -5
    Richmond -9
    Virginia Commonwealth -16
    Syracuse -20
    Old Dominion -2
    Notre Dame -15
    Texas A&M -6
    South Alabama -5
    Loyola Chicago -6
    Virginia -15
    Kansas -26
    Wisconsin -3
    Mississippi -18
    Houston -8
    Boise St. -15
    Utah St. -6
    North Carolina -19
    Iowa -23
    Portland -6
    UC Irvine -1
    Arizona -14
    San Diego St. -16
    Nevada -4
    UCLA -9
    Air Force -2
    Eastern Kentucky -3
    Youngstown St. -5
    Loyola Marymount -7
    San Diego -4
    Hawaii -5
    New Mexico St. -4
    North Carolina St. -14
    Duke -14
    Hofstra -6
    Georgia -6
    Bradley -9
    Arkansas -16
    Northern Illinois -1
    Valparaiso -6
    Kansas St. -13
    Wyoming -13
    Brigham Young -8
    Nebraska -3
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    licking my chops
  • jgislandjgisland Junior Member
    edited November 2013
    i'd recommend taking a look at Dan Hanner's projections over KenPom's projections early in the season. KenPom isn't taking into consideration any new comers, Hanner does.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9859613/projections-all-351-division-teams-college-basketball
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Alabama - 4 is quite small. they have a lot of returning starters and Oklahoma a bunch of new players.
    Alabama should be like -7
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited November 2013
    Here are mine for Friday and Saturday. It's a bit hard to read in this format so I've attached on an excel sheet as well.

    Away Away Home Home Total Margin Home Margin Location
    Army 69.22 Air Force 73.86 143.07 4.64 -4.64 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Coastal Carolina 57.36 Akron 69.9 127.26 12.54 -12.54 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Oklahoma 57.98 Alabama 66.65 124.63 8.67 -8.67 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Cal Poly 57.35 Arizona 72.89 130.25 15.54 -15.54 11/8/2013 (Home)
    UMBC 58.05 Arizona St. 81.97 140.02 23.93 -23.93 11/8/2013 (Home)
    SIU Edwardsville 58.05 Arkansas 80.14 138.19 22.09 -22.09 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Green Bay 72.02 Arkansas Pine Bluff 60.42 132.44 -11.59 11.59 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Nicholls St. 63.36 Auburn 72.37 135.74 9.01 -9.01 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Colorado 65.72 Baylor 69.88 135.59 4.16 -4.16 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Loyola MD 68.77 Binghamton 58.67 127.44 -10.1 10.1 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Texas Arlington 59.48 Boise St. 75.11 134.59 15.63 -15.63 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Jacksonville St. 65.05 Bradley 70.06 135.12 5.01 -5.01 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Weber St. 69.26 BYU 80.34 149.61 11.08 -11.08 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Coppin St. 53.76 California 76.81 130.58 23.05 -23.05 11/6/2013 (Home)
    Coppin St. 53.76 California 76.81 130.58 23.05 -23.05 11/8/2013 (Home)
    East Tennessee St. 61.23 Charlotte 73.42 134.66 12.19 -12.19 11/8/2013 (Home)
    North Carolina Central 53.22 Cincinnati 64.89 118.12 11.67 -11.67 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Stetson 57.5 Clemson 71.64 129.14 14.14 -14.14 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Alcorn St. 52.85 Creighton 82.1 134.95 29.25 -29.25 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Davidson 64.15 Duke 76.83 140.98 12.69 -12.69 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Florida International 65.72 Eastern Kentucky 75.73 141.44 10.01 -10.01 11/8/2013 (Home)
    North Florida 53.27 Florida 78.84 132.1 25.57 -25.57 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Jacksonville 60.17 Florida St. 76.97 137.15 16.8 -16.8 11/8/2013 (Home)
    St. Francis PA 65.21 Fordham 72.56 137.77 7.35 -7.35 11/8/2013 (Home)
    American 53.06 George Mason 71.9 124.96 18.85 -18.85 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Radford 57.76 George Washington 71.33 129.09 13.57 -13.57 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Wofford 52.35 Georgia 56.96 109.31 4.61 -4.61 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Presbyterian 52.65 Georgia Tech 72.76 125.42 20.11 -20.11 11/8/2013 (Home)
    William & Mary 66.04 Hampton 67.75 133.79 1.72 -1.72 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Tennessee St. 72.43 Hawaii 80.11 152.53 7.68 -7.68 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Monmouth 62.37 Hofstra 66.99 129.36 4.63 -4.63 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Texas St. 77.34 Houston 84.34 161.68 7 -7 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Alabama St. 51.33 Illinois 79.13 130.46 27.79 -27.79 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Chicago St. 57.79 Indiana 84.14 141.93 26.35 -26.35 11/8/2013 (Home)
    NC Wilmington 56.82 Iowa 82.81 139.64 25.99 -25.99 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Louisiana Monroe 53.92 Kansas 81.36 135.27 27.44 -27.44 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Northern Colorado 59.97 Kansas St. 76.7 136.66 16.73 -16.73 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Youngstown St. 73.16 Kennesaw St. 62.69 135.85 -10.47 10.47 11/8/2013 (Home)
    NC Asheville 60.73 Kentucky 84.99 145.72 24.26 -24.26 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Belmont 80.69 Lipscomb 66.99 147.68 -13.69 13.69 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Milwaukee 58.43 Loyola Chicago 69.65 128.08 11.22 -11.22 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Grand Canyon 58.2 Loyola Marymount 74.37 132.56 16.17 -16.17 11/8/2013 *NEUTRAL*
    Southern 55.04 Marquette 70.41 125.45 15.37 -15.37 11/8/2013 (Home)
    South Carolina St. 59.99 Marshall 76.34 136.33 16.36 -16.36 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Connecticut 69 Maryland 66.31 135.31 -2.69 2.69 11/8/2013 *NEUTRAL*
    St. Francis NY 57.07 Miami FL 77.58 134.64 20.51 -20.51 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Massachusetts Lowell 54.05 Michigan 86.57 140.62 32.52 -32.52 11/8/2013 (Home)
    McNeese St. 48.21 Michigan St. 77.19 125.4 28.97 -28.97 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Lehigh 62.03 Minnesota 78.55 140.58 16.53 -16.53 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Troy 60.18 Mississippi 79.5 139.68 19.33 -19.33 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Prairie View A&M 56.34 Mississippi St. 70.11 126.45 13.77 -13.77 11/8/2013 (Home)
    SE Louisiana 61.32 Missouri 83.04 144.36 21.72 -21.72 11/8/2013 (Home)
    High Point 73.25 NC Greensboro 71.27 144.52 -1.98 1.98 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Appalachian St. 65.42 NC State 83.25 148.67 17.83 -17.83 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Florida Gulf Coast 66.89 Nebraska 64.04 130.93 -2.86 2.86 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Pacific 64.55 Nevada 69.01 133.56 4.46 -4.46 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Western Michigan 61.21 New Mexico St. 69.15 130.37 7.94 -7.94 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Oakland 71.5 North Carolina 90.69 162.19 19.19 -19.19 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Nebraska Omaha 66.97 Northern Illinois 73.21 140.18 6.25 -6.25 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Miami OH 55.05 Notre Dame 71.68 126.74 16.63 -16.63 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Mississippi Valley St. 54.95 Oklahoma St. 88.79 143.74 33.85 -33.85 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Missouri St. 60.64 Old Dominion 62.46 123.1 1.82 -1.82 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Georgetown 60.65 Oregon 61.45 122.1 0.8 -0.8 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Savannah St. 44.75 Pittsburgh 64.47 109.21 19.72 -19.72 11/8/2013 (Home)
    UC Davis 64 Portland 66.22 130.23 2.22 -2.22 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Boston College 67.04 Providence 71.58 138.62 4.53 -4.53 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Northern Kentucky 53.32 Purdue 73.35 126.66 20.03 -20.03 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Maine 60.8 Rhode Island 72.09 132.89 11.28 -11.28 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Delaware 66.67 Richmond 73.67 140.34 7 -7 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Florida A&M 55.83 Rutgers 73 128.83 17.18 -17.18 11/8/2013 (Home)
    South Dakota St. 66.21 San Diego 64.72 130.93 -1.49 1.49 11/8/2013 *NEUTRAL*
    UC Riverside 50.69 San Diego St. 68.33 119.02 17.64 -17.64 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Albany 63.65 Siena 59.88 123.53 -3.77 3.77 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Detroit 78.55 South Alabama 77.79 156.34 -0.76 0.76 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Louisiana Tech 68.69 Southern 62.24 130.93 -6.45 6.45 11/7/2013 (Home)
    Jackson St. 55.66 Southern Miss 81.84 137.51 26.18 -26.18 11/8/2013 (Home)
    SE Missouri St. 58.94 St. Louis 81.97 140.91 23.02 -23.02 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Louisiana Tech 65.71 St. Marys 72.96 138.67 7.25 -7.25 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Bucknell 58.61 Stanford 70.46 129.06 11.85 -11.85 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Marist 58.2 Stony Brook 72.52 130.72 14.32 -14.32 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Cornell 54.7 Syracuse 79.19 133.9 24.49 -24.49 11/8/2013 (Home)
    SMU 58.86 TCU 54.79 113.66 -4.07 4.07 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Mercer 64.35 Texas 65.21 129.56 0.86 -0.86 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Buffalo 59.2 Texas A&M 65.17 124.37 5.97 -5.97 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Sam Houston St. 58.66 Texas Pan American 55.84 114.49 -2.82 2.82 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Norfolk St. 65.46 Texas Southern 66.74 132.2 1.28 -1.28 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Houston Baptist 59.9 Texas Tech 71.4 131.3 11.5 -11.5 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Navy 53.15 Towson 67.13 120.28 13.98 -13.98 11/8/2013 (Home)
    NJIT 64.5 Tulane 74.24 138.75 9.74 -9.74 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Fresno St. 61.75 UC Irvine 60.9 122.64 -0.85 0.85 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Drexel 59.12 UCLA 70.85 129.96 11.73 -11.73 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Portland St. 58.02 UNLV 81.92 139.94 23.89 -23.89 11/8/2013 (Home)
    USC 62.93 Utah St. 66.7 129.63 3.77 -3.77 11/8/2013 (Home)
    IUPUI 66.74 Utah Valley 73.09 139.83 6.36 -6.36 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Murray St. 64.81 Valparaiso 71.66 136.47 6.84 -6.84 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Illinois St. 65.31 VCU 81.07 146.38 15.76 -15.76 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Lafayette 59.62 Villanova 73.66 133.28 14.03 -14.03 11/8/2013 (Home)
    James Madison 49.31 Virginia 67.73 117.04 18.42 -18.42 11/8/2013 (Home)
    The Citadel 76.21 VMI 82.28 158.49 6.06 -6.06 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Colgate 59.61 Wake Forest 73.92 133.53 14.3 -14.3 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Cal St. Bakersfield 55.76 Washington St. 67.87 123.63 12.11 -12.11 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Mount St. Marys 64.82 West Virginia 72.36 137.18 7.54 -7.54 11/8/2013 (Home)
    New Mexico St. 65.65 Western Michigan 64.71 130.37 -0.94 0.94 11/8/2013 (Home)
    St. Johns 52.94 Wisconsin 63.33 116.27 10.39 -10.39 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Tennessee Martin 55.3 Wyoming 70.38 125.68 15.08 -15.08 11/8/2013 (Home)
    Gardner Webb 55.67 Xavier 67.29 122.96 11.61 -11.61 11/8/2013 (Home)
    New Mexico 76.06 Alabama A&M 55.58 131.64 -20.49 20.49 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Norfolk St. 69.83 Arkansas Pine Bluff 63.29 133.11 -6.54 6.54 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Lamar 53.94 Butler 79.27 133.21 25.33 -25.33 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Iona 77.76 Cleveland St. 72.64 150.39 -5.12 5.12 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Md. Eastern Shore 53.46 Columbia 70.15 123.61 16.7 -16.7 11/9/2013 (Home)
    IPFW 61.16 Dayton 75.96 137.12 14.79 -14.79 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Grambling 50.92 DePaul 87.16 138.08 36.24 -36.24 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Abilene Christian 61.18 Duquesne 76.7 137.88 15.53 -15.53 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Sacred Heart 58.99 Fairfield 71.7 130.69 12.71 -12.71 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Bryant 62.56 Gonzaga 83.84 146.4 21.28 -21.28 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Western Michigan 70.47 Hawaii 72.9 143.37 2.44 -2.44 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Western Illinois 55.91 Idaho 60.58 116.49 4.66 -4.66 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Drake 67.4 Illinois Chicago 67.7 135.1 0.3 -0.3 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Ball St. 57.52 Indiana St. 69.26 126.78 11.74 -11.74 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Eastern Kentucky 77.62 Kennesaw St. 60.83 138.45 -16.79 16.79 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Manhattan 57.06 La Salle 64.63 121.7 7.57 -7.57 11/9/2013 (Home)
    St. Peters 66.87 Long Island 75.05 141.92 8.17 -8.17 11/9/2013 (Home)
    College of Charleston 56.28 Louisville 76.9 133.18 20.62 -20.62 11/9/2013 (Home)
    South Dakota St. 65.81 Loyola Marymount 65.33 131.14 -0.49 0.49 11/9/2013 *NEUTRAL*
    Cal St. Fullerton 71.42 Montana St. 74.42 145.84 3 -3 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Eastern Illinois 55.3 Northwestern 68.83 124.13 13.54 -13.54 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Northern Iowa 64.98 Ohio 68.8 133.79 3.82 -3.82 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Morgan St. 56.41 Ohio St. 75.99 132.41 19.58 -19.58 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Wagner 62.3 Penn St. 69.71 132.01 7.42 -7.42 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Temple 72.62 Pennsylvania 65.85 138.46 -6.77 6.77 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Hartford 62.07 Quinnipiac 65.66 127.73 3.59 -3.59 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Savannah St. 53.94 Robert Morris 62.56 116.5 8.62 -8.62 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Grand Canyon 58.58 San Diego 73.71 132.29 15.13 -15.13 11/9/2013 *NEUTRAL*
    Niagara 66.86 Seton Hall 75.59 142.44 8.73 -8.73 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Longwood 63.64 South Carolina 80.16 143.79 16.52 -16.52 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Tennessee Tech 53.37 South Florida 66.96 120.33 13.6 -13.6 11/9/2013 (Home)
    South Dakota 70.37 St. Bonaventure 81.19 151.56 10.82 -10.82 11/9/2013 (Home)
    New Mexico St. 72.59 Tennessee St. 66.52 139.11 -6.07 6.07 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Northern Arizona 67.18 Texas San Antonio 71.4 138.57 4.22 -4.22 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Saint Josephs 59.21 Vermont 62.68 121.89 3.47 -3.47 11/9/2013 (Home)
    SC Upstate 69.85 Virginia Tech 71.93 141.78 2.09 -2.09 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Central Connecticut 67.34 Yale 78.25 145.59 10.91 -10.91 11/9/2013 (Home)
    Florida International 67.84 Youngstown St. 71.58 139.42 3.73 -3.73 11/9/2013 (Home)
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