Betting Talk

Please help me BT Sharps, could be good debate

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited October 2013 in Sports Betting
or maybe not a debate at all. was watching this WC game between Rays and Indians and found the following live in game play. things to understand: i have no capping ability in baseball and have zero opinion on outcome of this game, even after 3 innings. and this just concerns the Total posted in game with a 3-0 score.

Book A has 7 100/120

Book B has 7.5 102/118

I check Book A for 7.5 and it is 150/170

To keep things simple, there is no Book C or D that would have made the decision automatic.

What is the ideal play here?

Comments

  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    color me disappointed. felt like i had found one hell of an example to illustrate some of the math behind successful betting. BT is definitely growing sharper as we move along (not from anything i contribute, so don't think i am taking credit for any of it). i saw two options concerning the above real world example

    I could Arb out the 7.5 for a 6%+ profit

    I could take the Under 7.5 paying -118 for a wager that another book suggested had a 62% or so implied prob

    was a third extremely ill advised option that i will not even mention.

    any sharp or math insight to which option is the best? or even an option not listed?
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    Whichever wager is indicated by your in game model. If you don't have a good in-game model, then arb. Also, if book A or B is BetOnline, be sure to place the first wager there.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited October 2013
    homerplayer wrote: »
    or maybe not a debate at all. was watching this WC game between Rays and Indians and found the following live in game play. things to understand: i have no capping ability in baseball and have zero opinion on outcome of this game, even after 3 innings. and this just concerns the Total posted in game with a 3-0 score.

    Book A has 7 100/120

    Book B has 7.5 102/118

    I check Book A for 7.5 and it is 150/170

    To keep things simple, there is no Book C or D that would have made the decision automatic.

    What is the ideal play here?

    If I had no opinion on a game lined like this one, and it was 3-0 road team after 3 innings, I'd take the OV 7.5 +150
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    I don't live bet baseball but do have a few comments

    1. I'm suprised that a book would let you buy 1/2 runs during live betting, seems like a pretty big opportunity to take advantage of. I'd love to find a book that let me buy points live during football games.

    2. which book has larger limits?

    3. If you have no opinion just look at other live lines to see what the market is offering and make your conclusions from that

    4. arb'ing live is a dangerous game, lines go up and down pretty quick
  • Joe DogsJoe Dogs Member
    edited October 2013
    baseRunner wrote: »
    Whichever wager is indicated by your in game model. If you don't have a good in-game model, then arb. Also, if book A or B is BetOnline, be sure to place the first wager there.

    BR,probably a stupid question but why would you make your first wager at BetOnline?......I'm familiar with the book,but not there in game offers.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    Joe Dogs wrote: »
    BR,probably a stupid question but why would you make your first wager at BetOnline?......I'm familiar with the book,but not there in game offers.

    I'm guessing he is referring to the 5-10 sec delay for them to accept your bet. Not sure if it's the trader just double checking if he wants to accept it or just the software.

    CRIS and Pinn are pretty much instant.
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    what are the possible edges in baseball live betting aside from off-market numbers?

    upcoming batters/relievers? pitchers looking shaky (cueto couple of nights ago). I'm guessing those things are somewhat built into the lines already?

    I'm a baseball newb, my only live baseball bet of the season was a TB/BOS game where both pitchers after the 1st inning had location problem and when they did locate the ump didnt give them anything. Pinn had o9 -150 and CRIS o9 -140 so I fired small at CRIS but I had no idea if it was +EV.
  • baseRunnerbaseRunner Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    BOL has a nasty habit of rejecting wagers. Typically it will time out on you, then a few seconds later the odds will be updated by about twenty cents. Bush league stuff. Still worth betting, but be very careful if you're trying to arb one side out there.
  • Joe DogsJoe Dogs Member
    edited October 2013
    Interesting

    Thanks guys
  • increasedoddincreasedodd Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    On live bets and 2h bets I'm happy to follow pinnys vig and bet at locals
  • BeardedTacoBeardedTaco Senior Member
    edited October 2013
    baseRunner wrote: »
    BOL has a nasty habit of rejecting wagers. Typically it will time out on you, then a few seconds later the odds will be updated by about twenty cents. Bush league stuff. Still worth betting, but be very careful if you're trying to arb one side out there.

    getting a heavy dose of this tonight
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