I agree if the guy can't win any better then this he should quite wasting board space and stop posting. In this day and age of "What have you done for me lately" it is really easy for me to forget about the 20+ units StevieY padded my account with last year. Before everyone gets their panties all bunch up I just kidding folks. I said it before I'll say it again StevieY is the ONLY person that I would follow BLINDLY on this board. By reading all of his post the guy is a class act and I for one am very appreciative of his work and picks. Thanks StevieY.
I'm not quite sure if I understand how there was no play yesterday on Cain and today there is. If you could please elaborate that would be much appreciated.
I'm not quite sure if I understand how there was no play yesterday on Cain and today there is. If you could please elaborate that would be much appreciated.
Rocket science. In case u did not know, in baseball there are 16 other little guys running around hitting and fielding baseballs not just the 2 pitchers.
I'm not quite sure if I understand how there was no play yesterday on Cain and today there is. If you could please elaborate that would be much appreciated.
+135 was my bottom line to post. It was +131 when I was going to post yesterday.
Hi StevieY, posting free plays and having a winning record obviously would get people to pay for your services later. Obviously your picks have been doing quite terrible, my question is, at what point do you stop posting all together to not cause any further damage to potential pay customers, before no one is left at all? I mean a few units down this early in the season is understanble or even 10 could possibly be coped with, but 15? So I guess the question is, when do you stop completely? You haven't had 2 days in a row of winning since I can remember.
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There is only one reason why people bitch when down 15 units or so. They are betting too much. Simple. Losing happens to everyone. When you bet a proper amount compared to your bankroll you weather storms and build when streaks come. If you dont know this or refuse to listen, which I have done in the past, YOU WILL LOSE.
+135 was my bottom line to post. It was +131 when I was going to post yesterday.
This is a line yesterday that was widely available at +135 or higher roughly 90 minutes before close.
I guess I wasn't aware that the posted plays were only a snapshot of the market at the period in time when you go to post.
I would assume you feel that this posting time is the time when the market is most favorable to people tailing your plays (in terms of buyback, etc.). And I understand you not having the time to sit around all day monitoring the market for when say SF crosses the cutoff line and is worthy of a play.
Have you given any thought to just allowing your followers to monitor the market? For example, post all of the plays that might be below the cutoff at 11 am but include the point at which you would recommend following.
Hi StevieY, posting free plays and having a winning record obviously would get people to pay for your services later. Obviously your picks have been doing quite terrible, my question is, at what point do you stop posting all together to not cause any further damage to potential pay customers, before no one is left at all? I mean a few units down this early in the season is understanble or even 10 could possibly be coped with, but 15? So I guess the question is, when do you stop completely? You haven't had 2 days in a row of winning since I can remember.
I'm hesitant to respond, for I feel it won't do much good (in my experience, those who get it get it, and those who don't, don't), but I can't help it.
First, see post #311.
Secondly, why a losing streak in baseball would impact someone's decision to purchase a football or hoops scription is beyond me, but to each his own.
Lastly, Stevie has been betting and sharing picks for over a decade and his priority has always been and continues to be to win bets, not to sell picks. No way in hell is he going to alter his posting of plays he believes to be +EV b/c of any perceived impact on subscription sales.
This is a line yesterday that was widely available at +135 or higher roughly 90 minutes before close.
I guess I wasn't aware that the posted plays were only a snapshot of the market at the period in time when you go to post.
I would assume you feel that this posting time is the time when the market is most favorable to people tailing your plays (in terms of buyback, etc.). And I understand you not having the time to sit around all day monitoring the market for when say SF crosses the cutoff line and is worthy of a play.
Have you given any thought to just allowing your followers to monitor the market? For example, post all of the plays that might be below the cutoff at 11 am but include the point at which you would recommend following.
I have never hidden the fact that I don't stare at the baseball lines all summer waiting for a line to show up. When the overnight limits were better and I could post them, I would look at the lines when I woke up to see if there were any major changes and went about my day. May check them every now and then thru the day but for me in the summer, it is about my own baseball season, golf, horse racing, home maintenance, hanging out with my son outside. I'm a warm weather person living in a cold weather state. I'm don't waste my summer staring at baseball lines all day long, summer isn't long enough here. When I'm winning, no one seems to care. Don't get me wrong, I don't care less about my baseball picks compared to other sports, I do my work the night before, not gameday. I just rarely play games that move on gameday because of it. Posting gameday instead of overnights, I find that I lose games I would have played overnight, and find plays that may not have been playable the night before.
You make a good point about mentioning games that are close to the cutoff in case they move during the day. The only negative is if a game moves because of a reason I would feel is reasonable, which would then move my cutoff line. I don't get too worried about most lineup changes so there wouldn't be many games that would fall into that problem but there could be a couple.
Just to look at a few examples from the last two seasons of posted StevieY MLB.
from 5/26/11 to 6/16/11 he lost -15.05 units on 37 plays (as part of a +4.5 unit season)
from 7/01/11 to 7/18/11 he lost -10.99 units on 27 plays (as part of a +4.5 unit season)
from 7/06/12 to 8/25/12 he lost -8.29 units on 54 plays (as part of a +35 unit season)
(as of last Monday)
from 4/30/13/ to 5/26 he lost -18.19 units on 43 plays
So yes, it is a bad run, and the worst he has had in MLB in 2+ seasons of posting here, but it really isn't THAT unusual.
A discussion on whether StevieY will win going forward in MLB or if the plays are worth following is certainly worthy at any point, but his record on the last 50 plays or so (win or lose) isn't the best indicator of what will happen next.
You make a good point about mentioning games that are close to the cutoff in case they move during the day. The only negative is if a game moves because of a reason I would feel is reasonable, which would then move my cutoff line. I don't get too worried about most lineup changes so there wouldn't be many games that would fall into that problem but there could be a couple.
The reason I'm asking for the games close to cutoff is that it's clear from your record you can win in mlb. So with the change in posting time because of the overnight limits, I think many wonder if there is the same value in only getting what seems like 1 play a day on average (seems safe to assume you are playing a lot more than that). A lot higher chance for variance when the volume is so low, and it might be beneficial to be able to play some of the overnight stuff if it became available later in the day.
All of this is kind of under the assumption that your unposted stuff is more profitable than the posted has been. Maybe that's not the case.
Hi StevieY, posting free plays and having a winning record obviously would get people to pay for your services later. Obviously your picks have been doing quite terrible, my question is, at what point do you stop posting all together to not cause any further damage to potential pay customers, before no one is left at all? I mean a few units down this early in the season is understanble or even 10 could possibly be coped with, but 15? So I guess the question is, when do you stop completely? You haven't had 2 days in a row of winning since I can remember.
No one will ever accuse me of being a marketing person. I don't do it, never particularly liked it, suck at it anyway, don't care about it. You see the results, you either think it is worth it or not, that's my marketing. You find out the most about anyone when things are going bad. Anyone can post a play when they are winning. Honestly, I'd be more worried about someone who just quit because they were worried about what their record was. If they quit because they felt they weren't going to be +EV going forward, then that's different.
May was the worst month I can remember having in at least the last decade. When you have been doing it for 15+ years, you look back at the best and worst runs you have ever had, you see the same thing. Best runs, you see easy wins, you see that you pretty much won every coinflip game or a large majority of them, and you won games you had no business winning. People say they are hot. No, you just got the perfect storm of good variance with "luck"(good beats). You take the coinflips and average them out to 50/50, and remove the games you had no business winning, and you suddenly see a typical run. Worst runs, you see losses like SF today that were over early, you don't seem to win any coinflip games(the only two we won during May were games we were leading late, blew a save to tie the game, scored in the 9th to win it), and you lose games you have no business losing. 9 blown saves against, 0 blown saves for, outside of the post I made a few days ago about our hitting with runners on vs opp and blowing leads, Detroit two days ago had a runner on 3rd three times with less then 2 out and couldn't score them, had 3 hits with RISP(3-13) yet didn't score a run, only needed 1. When things are going bad, that's what happens. Do I think that will continue? No.
15 units should not be your deathbed. I was once down 26 units in the NHL in mid-January at SSB. It was one of those runs where I was losing games every way possible, lost two games in the same week where I had a 2 goal lead with under 3 minutes to play. Wound up the year +1. Did I expect that? No, but I expected to end the year better then -26 so there was no reason to stop playing. Yeah, it sucks and staring at a record makes it worse because it makes people think about it even if things start getting better. I cut it to -8 and it still looks bad to most but right now, would you take it? Hell yes. What's done is done, if you think that I won't be any better then -15 at the end of the year, then you are right to walk away. If you think a bad baseball season will make football, basketball, or hockey bad in the fall/winter, then walk away.
Just to look at a few examples from the last two seasons of posted StevieY MLB.
from 5/26/11 to 6/16/11 he lost -15.05 units on 37 plays (as part of a +4.5 unit season)
from 7/01/11 to 7/18/11 he lost -10.99 units on 27 plays (as part of a +4.5 unit season)
from 7/06/12 to 8/25/12 he lost -8.29 units on 54 plays (as part of a +35 unit season)
(as of last Monday)
from 4/30/13/ to 5/26 he lost -18.19 units on 43 plays
So yes, it is a bad run, and the worst he has had in MLB in 2+ seasons of posting here, but it really isn't THAT unusual.
A discussion on whether StevieY will win going forward in MLB or if the plays are worth following is certainly worthy at any point, but his record on the last 50 plays or so (win or lose) isn't the best indicator of what will happen next.
Love stevie for so many reasons but in your posts talking about his mlb records and downswings you never mention that those were achieved on overnight lines
Would it be fair to say that with gameday lines offering less EV something like a +15u downswing is more likely to happen?
Another thing to keep in mind is realistic expectations. MLB on day of game is a major market. It would be relatively easy for a large group to bet six figures on a MLB side at the time StevieY is posting. The level of difficulty is much higher than CBB or even early week CFB. This isn't a market that is going to be crushed long term by anyone.
Love stevie for so many reasons but in your posts talking about his mlb records and downswings you never mention that those were achieved on overnight lines
Would it be fair to say that with gameday lines offering less EV something like a +15u downswing is more likely to happen?
I'm not an expert on the intricacies of the MLB market, but certainly that is possible and worthy of discussion.
The reason I'm asking for the games close to cutoff is that it's clear from your record you can win in mlb. So with the change in posting time because of the overnight limits, I think many wonder if there is the same value in only getting what seems like 1 play a day on average (seems safe to assume you are playing a lot more than that). A lot higher chance for variance when the volume is so low, and it might be beneficial to be able to play some of the overnight stuff if it became available later in the day.
All of this is kind of under the assumption that your unposted stuff is more profitable than the posted has been. Maybe that's not the case.
Early on, the non-posted stuff that was postable the night before was winning pretty solidly. The last month, it's been flipping a coin/down a little. Everything else has been as bad as the posted games. Like I said, May was the worst overall month I can remember. I have a 26 horse spot plays, never had more then 8 losing in any one month(and usually it is 3-5), May I had 21. My "singles" spot plays I use for singles in DD, Pick 3-6 bets have won 58% the last 3 years with no one month under 44%(57% this year before May), May 28%. When you play bombs in the other legs, you can't have only 28% last thru your single. It's been brutal.
StevieY:
The true measure of a man _ or a capper for that matter _ is how you handle and respond to criticism. It would appear that in the long-term your results speak for themselves. You have responded to a few slings and arrows flung by persons disappointed not necessarily by your overall performance, but by your performance over the 31 days constituting the month of May 2013 A.D. They were hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and make a few bucks riding your selections to the pay window.
It didn't happen as they envisioned, so they have to respond and vent their frustrations. Good luck in the future and solid responses to our wounded warrior.
I'm not an expert on the intricacies of the MLB market, but certainly that is possible and worthy of discussion.
I think this is really the only thing worth discussing in this thread. Betting overnight and betting at noon est is infinitely harder to beat. I used to bet overnight and now I bet at 9 am and even that is much much tougher. Now Stevie is not only betting after all the movement overnight but also all the movement in the morning. I still for sure think he's plus ev but I think his edge has decreased dramatically.
I'm having a hard time understanding a few things, excuse my ignorance, but maybe someone can help.. I know the cost of the team is very important but I don't understand why over a couple dollars it becomes no play... So when your making selections is the mentality that you like the team to win or it's just a good price ? sometimes a line will move and make favorable the other side like today buffet posted milw @ +163 last nite .. This morning saw phils at -155 and almost played it.. How much of your decision on a play is based on the price?
I'm having a hard time understanding a few things, excuse my ignorance, but maybe someone can help.. I know the cost of the team is very important but I don't understand why over a couple dollars it becomes no play... So when your making selections is the mentality that you like the team to win or it's just a good price ? sometimes a line will move and make favorable the other side like today buffet posted milw @ +163 last nite .. This morning saw phils at -155 and almost played it.. How much of your decision on a play is based on the price?
You know if you think he is going to stay on a downward trend there is always the fade option open to you. I am not advocating this just throwing it out there. I have previously made my feelings know on this subject.
Comments
Rocket science. In case u did not know, in baseball there are 16 other little guys running around hitting and fielding baseballs not just the 2 pitchers.
+135 was my bottom line to post. It was +131 when I was going to post yesterday.
We kindly ask that you use this thread for any and all questions/comments pertaining to Stevie's MLB plays so that those subscribed to his pick thread only receive alerts when Stevie posts. Thank you.
I guess I wasn't aware that the posted plays were only a snapshot of the market at the period in time when you go to post.
I would assume you feel that this posting time is the time when the market is most favorable to people tailing your plays (in terms of buyback, etc.). And I understand you not having the time to sit around all day monitoring the market for when say SF crosses the cutoff line and is worthy of a play.
Have you given any thought to just allowing your followers to monitor the market? For example, post all of the plays that might be below the cutoff at 11 am but include the point at which you would recommend following.
Moved it here for you. Classy first post.
First, see post #311.
Secondly, why a losing streak in baseball would impact someone's decision to purchase a football or hoops scription is beyond me, but to each his own.
Lastly, Stevie has been betting and sharing picks for over a decade and his priority has always been and continues to be to win bets, not to sell picks. No way in hell is he going to alter his posting of plays he believes to be +EV b/c of any perceived impact on subscription sales.
I have never hidden the fact that I don't stare at the baseball lines all summer waiting for a line to show up. When the overnight limits were better and I could post them, I would look at the lines when I woke up to see if there were any major changes and went about my day. May check them every now and then thru the day but for me in the summer, it is about my own baseball season, golf, horse racing, home maintenance, hanging out with my son outside. I'm a warm weather person living in a cold weather state. I'm don't waste my summer staring at baseball lines all day long, summer isn't long enough here.
You make a good point about mentioning games that are close to the cutoff in case they move during the day. The only negative is if a game moves because of a reason I would feel is reasonable, which would then move my cutoff line. I don't get too worried about most lineup changes so there wouldn't be many games that would fall into that problem but there could be a couple.
Just to look at a few examples from the last two seasons of posted StevieY MLB.
from 5/26/11 to 6/16/11 he lost -15.05 units on 37 plays (as part of a +4.5 unit season)
from 7/01/11 to 7/18/11 he lost -10.99 units on 27 plays (as part of a +4.5 unit season)
from 7/06/12 to 8/25/12 he lost -8.29 units on 54 plays (as part of a +35 unit season)
(as of last Monday)
from 4/30/13/ to 5/26 he lost -18.19 units on 43 plays
So yes, it is a bad run, and the worst he has had in MLB in 2+ seasons of posting here, but it really isn't THAT unusual.
A discussion on whether StevieY will win going forward in MLB or if the plays are worth following is certainly worthy at any point, but his record on the last 50 plays or so (win or lose) isn't the best indicator of what will happen next.
All of this is kind of under the assumption that your unposted stuff is more profitable than the posted has been. Maybe that's not the case.
No one will ever accuse me of being a marketing person. I don't do it, never particularly liked it, suck at it anyway, don't care about it. You see the results, you either think it is worth it or not, that's my marketing. You find out the most about anyone when things are going bad. Anyone can post a play when they are winning. Honestly, I'd be more worried about someone who just quit because they were worried about what their record was. If they quit because they felt they weren't going to be +EV going forward, then that's different.
May was the worst month I can remember having in at least the last decade. When you have been doing it for 15+ years, you look back at the best and worst runs you have ever had, you see the same thing. Best runs, you see easy wins, you see that you pretty much won every coinflip game or a large majority of them, and you won games you had no business winning. People say they are hot. No, you just got the perfect storm of good variance with "luck"(good beats). You take the coinflips and average them out to 50/50, and remove the games you had no business winning, and you suddenly see a typical run. Worst runs, you see losses like SF today that were over early, you don't seem to win any coinflip games(the only two we won during May were games we were leading late, blew a save to tie the game, scored in the 9th to win it), and you lose games you have no business losing. 9 blown saves against, 0 blown saves for, outside of the post I made a few days ago about our hitting with runners on vs opp and blowing leads, Detroit two days ago had a runner on 3rd three times with less then 2 out and couldn't score them, had 3 hits with RISP(3-13) yet didn't score a run, only needed 1. When things are going bad, that's what happens. Do I think that will continue? No.
15 units should not be your deathbed. I was once down 26 units in the NHL in mid-January at SSB. It was one of those runs where I was losing games every way possible, lost two games in the same week where I had a 2 goal lead with under 3 minutes to play. Wound up the year +1. Did I expect that? No, but I expected to end the year better then -26 so there was no reason to stop playing. Yeah, it sucks and staring at a record makes it worse because it makes people think about it even if things start getting better. I cut it to -8 and it still looks bad to most but right now, would you take it? Hell yes. What's done is done, if you think that I won't be any better then -15 at the end of the year, then you are right to walk away. If you think a bad baseball season will make football, basketball, or hockey bad in the fall/winter, then walk away.
Love stevie for so many reasons but in your posts talking about his mlb records and downswings you never mention that those were achieved on overnight lines
Would it be fair to say that with gameday lines offering less EV something like a +15u downswing is more likely to happen?
I'm not an expert on the intricacies of the MLB market, but certainly that is possible and worthy of discussion.
Early on, the non-posted stuff that was postable the night before was winning pretty solidly. The last month, it's been flipping a coin/down a little. Everything else has been as bad as the posted games. Like I said, May was the worst overall month I can remember. I have a 26 horse spot plays, never had more then 8 losing in any one month(and usually it is 3-5), May I had 21. My "singles" spot plays I use for singles in DD, Pick 3-6 bets have won 58% the last 3 years with no one month under 44%(57% this year before May), May 28%. When you play bombs in the other legs, you can't have only 28% last thru your single. It's been brutal.
The true measure of a man _ or a capper for that matter _ is how you handle and respond to criticism. It would appear that in the long-term your results speak for themselves. You have responded to a few slings and arrows flung by persons disappointed not necessarily by your overall performance, but by your performance over the 31 days constituting the month of May 2013 A.D. They were hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and make a few bucks riding your selections to the pay window.
It didn't happen as they envisioned, so they have to respond and vent their frustrations. Good luck in the future and solid responses to our wounded warrior.
Good luck,
Paul
I think this is really the only thing worth discussing in this thread. Betting overnight and betting at noon est is infinitely harder to beat. I used to bet overnight and now I bet at 9 am and even that is much much tougher. Now Stevie is not only betting after all the movement overnight but also all the movement in the morning. I still for sure think he's plus ev but I think his edge has decreased dramatically.
My entire decision is based on price.
thanks for this