Gill Alexander Baseball (via Bob Stoll)
minimax314
Member
He was up ~50 units (60 "stars") over n=498 bets in 2012. I believe that Bob himself is +EV in NCAA football, but I'm much less certain that he is elsewhere, and ofc he has a reasonable financial incentive to pitch Alexander regardless. That said, his vouching for Alexander does lend him atl some credibility. But when I read things like "pioneered the use of sabermetrics in handicapping", and/or consider his affiliation with pregame.com (and that Brandon Lang head shot), it again gives me some pause. Should we expect him to be a +EV baseball handicapper in 2013?
Comments
Per a sales email from July 13th 2012 (when Bob first started offering Alexander's picks) ->
"Here are Gill Alexander’s historical performance on his baseball plays. Previous 4 Seasons TOTAL: 761-654 (54%) for +61.60 units"
The continued focus on winning percentage (given moneyline betting) bothers me ofc.
I want to be clear here for the record that I'm not trying in any way to call out or disparage Alexander. On the contrary, Bob is literally the only tout not affiliated with RAS that I'd listen to at all in terms of potentially using another service. And Alexander's record definitely seems solid (quantitatively). But some of the qualitative information surrounding that record seems to be "off" to me (lack of closing line value, other touts he associates with, etc). But anyway, to be clear, I'm asking these questions because I'm hoping that he does indeed pass our review.
In addition to the concerns you mentioned, there are so few handicappers out there now that grade with a widely available line at time of release. It is a huge issue that doesn't get enough attention on Twitter & forums these days. I would assume the win/loss is accurate, but every cent of average line inflation on 1400 plays is worth about 14 units, which could easily drop the total in to the red. I'd also be interested in seeing any records before those four years?
Also, just asked a buddy who pointed out that he was a big loser in all sports at Pregame (Gill Alexander 466-511 47.7%, -138.7). Can anyone confirm or have more available data? There is a concern that he is falsely being labeled a baseball expert just because of the big baseball run, and conveniently ignoring all other sports.
I am a lot more conservative than most when it comes to following people, but without more data, I would take a wait and see approach.
Minimax affiliated in some way with "Gill Alexander"
YES -2500
NO +1500
Thank you. Given your comments, I most surely will indeed take the wait and see approach (which is what I thought would come out of this thread).
You're trolling, right?
It's a fairly valid question/concern, even if not presented as tactfully as possible, given that this was your first post. If you're not, simply let it go. Thanks.
Okay, thank you, and I apologize for my reply on that issue (I indeed should have let it go).
I'd like to say for the record that I am not affiliated in any way with him, and posted this solely for the reason I said (to get an opinion from basically the only source I respect on this issue, which is you guys). I'm surely now glad that I did so.
These thinly veiled personal attacks on Jeff (or any other poster for that matter) must end. If you're not going to stop them yourself, then you'll be banned from this site. You've had plenty of warnings.
Oops, I edited them out before I saw your response, but obviously agree with the above.
So one guy can make a line on someone being affiliated with a handicapper. And I make a comment that two posters are very similar and would not surprise me if they were the same individual and that gets a warning.
Sounds fair to me, does not seem prejudice at all.
Also , where did I mention Jeff? Oh you are a mind reader, sorry I forgot.
He made the same observation that I might have made has I noticed that it was this poster's first post was in regards to a handicapper. In this industry, I've learned to always be sceptical about those that are "going to bat" for a particular capper, especially those who use their first post on a forum to ask about a capper. It could very well be a coincidence, but I'm not surprised that someone questioned it.
If you feel that myself or other moderators are "prejudiced" against you, then I'd invite you to find another place to post. Goats/myself are doing our job here, and to me making sure that the rules are enforced is more important than making sure that you think that everything here is "fair".
And it didn't take a psychic to figure out your post.
We're done repeating the same things to you over and over.
So divide 61.6 by 1.7 = 36.24 units. From here, you can adjust that to determine an equivalent win% against -110.
(36.24 + 1.1 * 1415) / (2.1 * 1415) = 53.6%
This is equivalent to an ROI of 2.33%.
These numbers obviously improve if you include the results from last season. But I wanted to give people a true idea of what the record meant since as people have stated, win % means very little in sports involving moneyline betting, it's all about ROI.
In Chapter 9 of Elihu Feustels Conquering Risk book there is a handicapper success test where he describes a methodology to handicap a handicapper using a z-score. I have a sheet that tabulates z-scores, so I threw Gills numbers in there using the adjusted win% at -110 (Ill throw some RAS z-scores in there too for comparison sake).
RAS CBB Last 5 Seasons 1020-794, z=5.31
RAS CFB Last 5 Seasons 183-122, z=3.49
StevieY 2012 CFB 49-39, z=1.07
StevieY 2012 CBB 135-103, z=2.07
StevieY 2010-2011 (FB, CBB, NHL) 790-666, z=3.25
Gill 758.44-656.56, z=2.71
This is assuming a win probability of 50%. Note that a positive z-score doesnt necessarily correlate to a winning handicapper due to laying -110. However, everything listed above is a long-term winner. From Elihus book: With a z-score of at least +2, you have an event that occurs only 1 in 40 times by chance. When a handicapper or model tests at z-score of +2, I find that interesting (but not conclusive that this handicapper is good).
All of the z-scores listed above are very good. With Gill, there is one notable estimate, the assumption of average play being 1.7 units. Everyone can take from this post whatever they want, but in my opinion its a pretty good starting point to evaluate any handicapper with consideration towards sample size.
This is a good idea. The baseball ones with Paul Sporer are good listens.
So it's good to know we misunderstood this, and his 2012 record was on top of (and not included in) the above figures. BUT, CraigRAS, could you ask him about the below? Frankly since I read this yesterday, it's become my #1 concern. If I'm overstepping by asking this, then I apologize and of course just ignore the request. But I went from being a likely buyer to a non-buyer based primarily on the below (in addition to my earlier concerns).
Not interested in a debate, but this just isn't true.
Do the lines move in the baseball? Do they ever move enough so that there was an arb between open and close on either side of any game? ie opens -130/+120 and either closes or at some point touches -141/+131 or -119/+109. Any line that moves this much (and there are many daily) has a guaranteed +ev play at some pt. Are you saying no one has the skills to find it?
I know several people that make their living exclusively modeling baseball.
The ones with Joe Peta are really good also and worth listening to more than once.
Bob added NBA GURU to the fucking strip club of touts he now has. He has no shame anymore.
Honestly I hate touts and with StevieY now selling I will say there are 2 touts I would even listen to in this business. Every other person who I would deem sharp doesnt sell shit.
I know I may not be the most welcome person round these parts but....
You mind kindly listing what stats are "predictive" and which ones are not?
Thanks,
JB