But you can't prove SB Coin Toss Prop is -EV
homerplayer
Senior Member
neither in a physical or philosophical sense.
anyone care to discuss?
about to hit submit, and noticed someone might point out i should have added 'both sides'
and please, if you toss your hat in the ring, keep it civil.
anyone care to discuss?
about to hit submit, and noticed someone might point out i should have added 'both sides'
and please, if you toss your hat in the ring, keep it civil.
Comments
Already is.
We are debating, hopefully, coins specific to the toss prior to the Superbowl, which would lead us down the physical path of proving or disproving -EV on the prop.
Thus the title doesn't say you can't prove 'any quarter currently in my pocket'
Continue, please.
So you're saying that weighted coins exist and you started a topic to achieve confirmation of such a groundbreaking theory?
1. Physical - You cannot prove that the prop is -EV on both side (heads and tails). Well, for $99.99 you can at least engage in the activity that might result in lending assistance to making a determination of bias, or lack thereof:
MELBOURNE, Florida — The coin that will be flipped to open the Super Bowl in New Orleans is the product of a central Florida sports memorabilia company.
The Highland Mint made the commemorative coin for Sunday night's football championship. The 1.5-inch diameter coin is made of silver with Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers helmets highlighted in gold.
The Melbourne-based company has made the coins for the Super Bowl opening coin flip for the last 22 years. President and CEO Michael Kott tells Florida Today (http://on.flatoday.com/WKpm0G ) that the flipped coin will go to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Another 99 will be given to the football players and NFL dignitaries.
About 9,900 of the coins will be sold to the public for $99.95 each. Kott says each batch of coins usually sells out.
So does anyone want to drop a yard on a coin, toss that summabitch 1,000 or so times and get back to us? Actually I would prefer one coin spread among 20 posters each tossing 100 times and getting back to us with results.
Get it now? I cannot prove the coin is biased, just as you cannot physically prove it is perfectly balanced and will produce a range tighter and tighter around the 50% as the sample size increases.
2. Philosophically - which is built on the physical reality of restrictions that each coin is minted different from the prior year. however, putting that on hold. let's move toward the more abstract of how would you know any bias was present? You wouldn't. Even if the same coin was minted in 2000 and used from that point forward, one flip a year. How many years would you live through the bias without being aware of it?
But I know realize both of those topics for discussion will fall flat and will continue to have one narrow view of how to survive in betting. And we all have retired from our days jobs and live in million dollar homes now cause we kicked the shit out of the betting world.
then boom!!!!
you are saying you cannot prove the SB coin toss is an -EV prop?
I win!!!
That was so much easier than I thought it would be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKjxFJfcrcA
I accept your resignation that you cannot prove the SB Coin Toss is -EV.
2 new converts.
/Thread
Goin' all John Madden on us, HP.
I like it, however, please humor me further as we move through your response, and in particular, the one quoted here. I humbly suggest that the properties of the wager are not dependent on my assumptions on the coin. To pry more details out and continue down the road, what if I assume there is a bias? You are saying that all I have to do to make the wager +EV, and no longer a 50/50 proposition is to believe that the coin is biased, however slightly, and land on Heads
hold on. time to play pirates of the caribbean. be back in a few
Take it for what it's worth........
No you actually have to have information that a biased coin is being used and what side the coin is weighted towards. Are you really that thick?
You`re in great shape for next year then. The odds of losing 5 years in a row are 1 in 32, so you have a 31 in 32 chance of winning.
(I just assumed that everything in this thread should be illogical)
On the contrary, kass is merely acknowledging ignorance, not advocating arbitrary assumption.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_transformation_groups#Discrete_Case_-_coin_flipping
Side Note - TCJ, can you also thank Ottimale for proving you incorrect in the Defense of Parlays Thread now as well?
Anyway Ottimale, the point of this thread was to address the needless bashing and tough talk some posters were throwing out at others concerning a coin toss. I just wanted to establish that no one can prove with certainty that the SB Coin Toss is -EV, just as I could never prove that it is +EV. If I knew how to insert the therefore symbol from my geometry days, I would do it here. A=B therefore...
You (the collective) cannot prove it is -EV at -101, Win 2/3/13 6:25pm Props Football 904 Coin toss lands heads -101* vs Coin toss lands tails, then no one should ever, ever, ever, speak with certainy that the wager is -EV. It adds nothing to the discussion to pop into threads and bash posters for playing a Prop that will do once every year or two. We can put this to rest once someone ponies up the $100 for an SB Coin flips that summabitch a few thousands times.
I will keep fighting the good fight on the Big Picture here. Too many poster here, my opinion only (which is rejected because of the source), have this tight, narrow, only one way to win mentality. Like a bunch of JW's on my door step. Okay, we get it. Math, Jehovah, whatever. Just don't be a dick when you deliver the message.
Side Note 2: Did not go back and read page 1, so forgive if any of this was covered.
Summary: Point of thread. We cannot prove SB Coin Toss -EV or +EV with certainty, so STFU.
Worst thread ever
But you cant prove those table games arent EV. You cant prove that the dice you throw on the craps table are not weighted in your favor. Or that the roulette dealer knows exactly where to place the ball to help you. You cant prove any of it. Just dont do it 1000 times
Bravo gentlemen, bravo.
Even if the coin toss was somehow rigged with a weighted coin, unless you have inside information on the coin that's going to be used, then it's still a -EV play. You made this bet thinking one of two things....either it's a -EV bet, but you're just doing it for fun and know that you don't have any edge here (which I defended you for above), or you think that you have some edge on the Super Bowl coin toss and thus it's a +EV play for you (in which case, I really don't have a defense for you, and you're either just trying to stir the pot or just don't get it).
For anyone who doesn't get the reference... Schrodinger's Cat
In all seriousness, I hadn't been reading this thread, but after skimming it, I'm not even sure what we're debating here.
Umm-- I think this debate falls under the "Post-football February Syndrome" (as first expounded by renowned Prof. Howzat Whatchamacallit) This condition is characterized by extreme boredom and sluggishness brought on by lack of football. Based on this-- I postilulate 49.5% of posters in this thread are bored and waiting for baseball. Another 49.5% are bored and waiting for college football. The other 1% of us are still sane.