Betting Talk

2012 NFL Superbowl

homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
edited February 2013 in Sports Betting
Ov 47.5

sick and tired of waiting for the A-holes to move it to 47 flat, and since i have a real job can't sit here waiting for the 35 second window that will appear when Pinny does move it to 47 so playing it now. (any have input as to what they make of Pinny's resistance?)

Ravens D is horrible, terrible. given up over 1,200 yards in 3 games yet won them all. and i don't know if it is a product of playing in a shit division, but this Niners D is much more suspect than I thought. Both offenses rolling right now. short of one of these DB Harbaughs out thinking himself, think we are looking at something in the 830 total yards neighborhood.

48 points to win

830/48 = 17+ YPPT

Both offenses slightly over 14 YPPT

Damn Total should be 51.5

my only concern is Flacco sucks so incredibly bad sometimes.

GL

Comments

  • tribecalledjefftribecalledjeff Senior Member
    edited January 2013
    Two legit questions for discussion.

    1. Do you think simple Yards and YPPT calculations are enough to give you and edge in today's NFL totals market?

    2. Do you think when calculating yards/YPP/YPPT that all yards are created equal? I.e., does 9 yards on 1st and 10 carry the same weight as 9 yards on 3rd and 15? Does 9 yards in the first quarter mean the same as 9 yards late in the 4th quarter when down 20? Does a 3 yard run in the first quarter on 2nd and 7 have the same meaning as a 3 yard run with a 3 point lead, 3rd and 1, and 2:00 left?
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    tribecalledjeff wrote: »
    Two legit questions for discussion.

    1. Do you think simple Yards and YPPT calculations are enough to give you and edge in today's NFL totals market?

    2. Do you think when calculating yards/YPP/YPPT that all yards are created equal? I.e., does 9 yards on 1st and 10 carry the same weight as 9 yards on 3rd and 15? Does 9 yards in the first quarter mean the same as 9 yards late in the 4th quarter when down 20? Does a 3 yard run in the first quarter on 2nd and 7 have the same meaning as a 3 yard run with a 3 point lead, 3rd and 1, and 2:00 left?

    1. nope, and i would be a fool to play anything based solely on 1 stat. what helps give me an advantage is reading how many people keep talking about these defenses as if they are good. one journalist even used "Baltimore's defense is dominate again." shit like that seeps into the Market helps. also having Niners go Over 8 of 9 Kap's games (think that is accurate) helps.

    2. that is why the data normally incorporated over the 16+ games. you take teams running over 1,200 offensive plays in a season, those 15 yard draw plays on 3rd and 25 normalize the kneel downs at the end of a game.
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Bal +4.5
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    And the horseshoe strikes EARLY!!!! First play, 20 yard gain to the 40....NOPE....penalty on the 49ers. Gotta punt.

    3rd and 9 for the Ravens on the 19, incomplete pass.....NOPE....penalty on the 49ers. Next play, TD Ravens.

    We got this Homer! God is on our side....Ray Ray told me so.
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    So funny you can't help but laugh. 49ers drive right down the field to tie the game....NOPE....Davis gets hurt inside the 10 yard line and they have to settle for a field goal. GOD is good!
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Love this Homer! Great drive by 49ers, look to be much faster than Baltimore and BANG....fumble at the 25! God is GREAT
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Man, live betting this game and was hoping we'd get SF +200 or greater after that TD.
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Started at +165 then immediately bet down to +132 at BM.
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    There we go, +210. A successful hedge against the following:
    ONLINE
    02/03/2013
    08:33 AM [Ticket #: 1348967xx] TEAM WINNING MARGIN OF VICTORY IN GAME WILL BE
    02/03/2013 @ 03:30 PM TNT
    [90395] BALTIMORE WIN BY 1 TO 3 POINTS +400

    And the following alternative lines:

    ONLINE
    02/03/2013
    03:20 PM
    [Ticket #: 1349627xx] STRAIGHT BET
    02/03/2013 @ 03:30 PM MU
    [23141] BALTIMORE -3½+225
    (BALTIMORE vrs SAN FRANCISCO )

    ONLINE
    02/03/2013
    03:20 PM
    [Ticket #: 1349627xx] STRAIGHT BET
    02/03/2013 @ 03:30 PM MU
    [23143] BALTIMORE -7½+375
    (BALTIMORE vrs SAN FRANCISCO)

    ONLINE
    02/03/2013
    03:20 PM
    [Ticket #: 1349627xx] STRAIGHT BET
    02/03/2013 @ 03:30 PM MU
    [23145] BALTIMORE -10½+400
    (BALTIMORE vrs SAN FRANCISCO )

    ONLINE
    02/03/2013
    03:20 PM
    [Ticket #: 1349627xx] STRAIGHT BET
    02/03/2013 @ 03:30 PM MU
    [23147] BALTIMORE -14½+800
    (BALTIMORE vrs SAN FRANCISCO )

    Now, if Vernon Davis can catch one pass from here on out and close out my prop bets on him and this game can stay under 48, I'll be reading my kids my betting slip instead of Pete the Cat books... Though I do like Pete the Cat...

    P.S. TD Jacoby Jones!
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    You got that Baltimore -14.5 dude....GOD is on your side! He doesn't let Ray down!
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Bix - you're killin me. I self imposed a ban during the game, but stopped by for the halftime festivities. and you my man have me laughing in my wheaties.

    Man I hate Ray Lewis, but gambling does a funny thing to you as far as allegiances go. hopefully Ravens keep their foot on the gas.

    And that first play pissed me off and i thought here we go. i got Davis over 50.5 yards and they take 20 off him on play numero uno? ugh...

    gonna check 2nd H lines.
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Homer....how can we lose? God loves the RAYVENS!
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    God is great!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    God called Ray to heaven from the 50....turn out the lights Ray Ray!
  • babaorileybabaoriley Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    Bixler, I feel like you're one drink away from saying "Allah Akbar". While you're at it, can you please ask "God" to rectify the mistake he made when he created the Kardashian family? Many thanks in advance.
  • bixlerbixler Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    babaoriley wrote: »
    Bixler, I feel like you're one drink away from saying "Allah Akbar". While you're at it, can you please ask "God" to rectify the mistake he made when he created the Kardashian family? Many thanks in advance.

    So I sound like Ray Lewis? LOL
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    homerplayer wrote: »
    Ravens D is horrible, terrible. given up over 1,200 yards in 3 games yet won them all. and i don't know if it is a product of playing in a shit division, but this Niners D is much more suspect than I thought. Both offenses rolling right now. short of one of these DB Harbaughs out thinking himself, think we are looking at something in the 830 total yards neighborhood.

    I am not one to brag, but when it comes out this perfectly, i have got to say something

    yards
    Bal 367
    SF 468

    i would most certainly label 835 as in being in the 'neighborhood'
  • homerplayerhomerplayer Senior Member
    edited February 2013
    tribecalledjeff wrote: »
    Two legit questions for discussion.

    so, you weren't really looking to have a discussion then? My answers in post #3, maybe i missed your reply.

    Tease.
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