Betting Talk

Andrew Luck Clearly Rookie of the Year

cabster13cabster13 Senior Member
edited December 2012 in Sports Betting
What an incredible finish in Detroit for Luck and the Colts. I know all the RGIII hype but Andrew Luck seens the clear winner at this point in the season!
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Comments

  • HowardBealHowardBeal Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Russell Wilson was better today, better all season than Luck.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    HowardBeal wrote: »
    Russell Wilson was better today, better all season than Luck.

    agreed.
  • cabster13cabster13 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Totally disagree. Look at the team each had at the beginning of the year. Colts were in shambles. Seahawks.

    Hey Newcombe how bout those Huskers of yours? I was at the game here in Indy last night and the Huskers were a total JOKE!
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    HowardBeal wrote: »
    Russell Wilson was better today, better all season than Luck.

    HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA Clearly this was meant to be a joke, relax cabster.

    Super close w RGIII though, it hasnt been decided just yet.
  • HowardBealHowardBeal Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Luck beat any teams with a winning record other than GB?
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    cabster13 wrote: »
    Totally disagree. Look at the team each had at the beginning of the year. Colts were in shambles. Seahawks.

    Hey Newcombe how bout those Huskers of yours? I was at the game here in Indy last night and the Huskers were a total JOKE!

    Appreciate the feedback on the huskers cab. good usage of CAPS. you're always so full of positive energy :)... they were awful though. they aren't a good team - well aware of that but didn't realize they could be beat down so bad.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    HowardBeal wrote: »
    Luck beat any teams with a winning record other than GB?

    quality showing vs the pats :)...
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    MachineGun wrote: »
    HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA Clearly this was meant to be a joke, relax cabster.

    Super close w RGIII though, it hasnt been decided just yet.

    Why is this a joke? I know pretty much nothing about it, but looking at the raw stats...

    Luck 13 td 13 INT 3205 yards 56.8% Completion 71.6 QBR 183 rushing yards

    Wilson 17 td 8 INT 2051 yards 63.6 completion 65.3 QBR 227 rushing yards

    And then Griffin (stats with 1 less game played)

    16 TD 4 int 2497 yards 67.4 completion 72.1 QBR 642 rushing yards


    Doesnt look like it should really be close
  • jammerjammer Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    cabster13 wrote: »
    What an incredible finish in Detroit for Luck and the Colts. I know all the RGIII hype but Andrew Luck seens the clear winner at this point in the season!

    clear winner? not sure about that
  • blueblue Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    I am a Colts fan, but I think it is a toss-up. Griffin has the best stats, Wilson is pretty damn efficient, and Luck has some great 4th quarter comebacks. If Seattle or Washington makes the playoffs, it will get interesting. Guessing Griffin is the clubhouse leader at this point.
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    blue wrote: »
    I am a Colts fan, but I think it is a toss-up. Griffin has the best stats, Wilson is pretty damn efficient, and Luck has some great 4th quarter comebacks. If Seattle or Washington makes the playoffs, it will get interesting. Guessing Griffin is the clubhouse leader at this point.

    Thank you sir for some common sense, not sure why everything has to be "clearly", "obvious", "rediculous" etc. i think this about sums it up but I personally dont have Wilson in the mix.
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    MachineGun wrote: »
    but I personally dont have Wilson in the mix.

    not a lot of common sense in that gun but everyone's entitled to their opinions.
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Just to keep it simple because I didnt intend to get fully in the mix on this "argument", I dont think Wilson has been asked to do the same things as Luck and RGIII. I think they have shouldered more significant loads than Wilson.
  • cabster13cabster13 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Agree MG as Seattle has been in the mix for the last couple of years. No new coaching staff at either Seattle or in DC. Rookies at TE, new receivers in Avery and rookie TY Hilton, as well as a rookie in Ballard starting at RB in Indy. Softer schedule after their 3-13 record but most wins ever by a first round Qb pick in his rookie year with 4 games to go.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Sports Insights just tweeted that Luck is -140 RG3 is +160 and Wilson is +200 to win ROY. Lets look at a stats update.

    Luck 21 TD 18 INT 54.3% COMP 4183 yards (6.98 AVG 75.6 QBR. 254 rushing yards 5 TD

    Wilson 25 TD 10 INT 63.4% COMP 2868 yards (7.67 AVG) 98 QBR. 431 rushing yards 3 TD

    RG3 20 TD 5 INT 66.4% COMP 3100 yards (8.27 AVG) 104.1 QBR 752 rushing yards 6 TD


    How in the hell is Luck favored here? He has the most yards because his team has attempted 225 more passes then either of the other guys? Yes he has more then 1000 more yards passing but is averaging worse yards per attempt! When Luck wins this award it just shows that these awards literally dont matter because the guys voting for them are so clueless.
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    worm33 wrote: »
    Sports Insights just tweeted that Luck is -140 RG3 is +160 and Wilson is +200 to win ROY. Lets look at a stats update.

    Luck 21 TD 18 INT 54.3% COMP 4183 yards (6.98 AVG 75.6 QBR. 254 rushing yards 5 TD

    Wilson 25 TD 10 INT 63.4% COMP 2868 yards (7.67 AVG) 98 QBR. 431 rushing yards 3 TD

    RG3 20 TD 5 INT 66.4% COMP 3100 yards (8.27 AVG) 104.1 QBR 752 rushing yards 6 TD


    How in the hell is Luck favored here? He has the most yards because his team has attempted 225 more passes then either of the other guys? Yes he has more then 1000 more yards passing but is averaging worse yards per attempt! When Luck wins this award it just shows that these awards literally dont matter because the guys voting for them are so clueless.

    Yea... pretty amazing really. I don't usually like to muddy the waters with talk like this because I don't like when others do, but there is clearly a sprinkle of racism in this. There always is with these Geriatrics. The problem is that half of the 80 year old voters absolutely PINE for the "good old days" and try to put some ridiculous premium on doing things the way they have been done in the past. Andrew Luck is simply their Roger Staubach/Joe Theisman/Namath etc etc. It doesnt matter who is better, it matters who does things the way they are used to them being done. You know, like being white.
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    QBRs are:

    RGIII: 71.1
    Wilson: 70.0
    Luck: 64.6

    Amazingly, Luck has the highest run EPA adjustment of the lot and RGIII the lowest which should be even more of a tip of the cap to RGIII's arm.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    MachineGun wrote: »
    QBRs are:

    RGIII: 71.1
    Wilson: 70.0
    Luck: 64.6

    Amazingly, Luck has the highest run EPA adjustment of the lot and RGIII the lowest which should be even more of a tip of the cap to RGIII's arm.

    Im not sure what is better indicator QBR or "RATE" which ESPN uses and thats what I quoted in my post. RG 104.3 Wilson 98 Luck 75.6
  • MachineGunMachineGun Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    ESPN uses QBR actually, its a statistic they developed themselves in an attempt to replace "QB Rating" which is an incredibly outdated stat.
  • drurymikedrurymike Member
    edited December 2012
    Machine....you make a lot of good points then throw out the race card....i think last years roty was cam Newton so i guess they didn't have an issue with race last year....leave the race issue our of it and your points are valid.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    Go ahead and put Luck behind Alfred Morris and Doug Martin on my ballot now. Has anyone ever had a more over-rated season then Luck in the history of the NFL? Not to say he wont be really good in the future, but his season just wasnt that good.
  • weedsweeds Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    worm33 wrote: »
    Go ahead and put Luck behind Alfred Morris and Doug Martin on my ballot now. Has anyone ever had a more over-rated season then Luck in the history of the NFL? Not to say he wont be really good in the future, but his season just wasnt that good.

    A rookie QB takes a 2-14 franchise with little to no talent on offense to the playoffs and his season isn't that good? That's funny.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    AND Luck did that with NO RUNNING GAME AND NO DEFENSE.

    Really an argument could be made for all 3, but I think Luck did the most with the LEAST TALENT around him.

    Despite that, RG3's lack of making mistakes would give him a slight edge for me. Wilson's defense WON SEATTLE GAMES THIS YEAR....don't think Luck or RG3 could say that. For me it goes......

    RG3 by a ----hair
    Luck
    Wilson
  • weedsweeds Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    BigPerm wrote: »
    AND Luck did that with NO RUNNING GAME AND NO DEFENSE.

    Really an argument could be made for all 3, but I think Luck did the most with the LEAST TALENT around him.

    Despite that, RG3's lack of making mistakes would give him a slight edge for me. Wilson's defense WON SEATTLE GAMES THIS YEAR....don't think Luck or RG3 could say that. For me it goes......

    RG3 by a ----hair
    Luck
    Wilson

    Agree with most of this. I have Luck over RG3, because Luck was asked to do so much more for his team. If you take the QB position away from all 3 teams, Indy is far and away the worst team. Their best RB (Ballard) was 21st in the league, while Morris was 2nd and Lynch was 3rd. In addition, RG3 missed some time with injuries and in those games the backup 4th round rookie led them to a 4th quarter comeback over a playoff team and threw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes in his only full game.
  • BigPermBigPerm Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    weeds wrote: »
    Agree with most of this. I have Luck over RG3, because Luck was asked to do so much more for his team. If you take the QB position away from all 3 teams, Indy is far and away the worst team. Their best RB (Ballard) was 21st in the league, while Morris was 2nd and Lynch was 3rd. In addition, RG3 missed some time with injuries and in those games the backup 4th round rookie led them to a 4th quarter comeback over a playoff team and threw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes in his only full game.

    I would venture to say that with Henne, Sanchez, Quinn, or any of those other scrubs, Morris would not have had that kind of year.

    Fear of RG3's MULTIPLE WAYS to beat you, led to Morris's big year I believe.

    I won't feel ANYONE is robbed when they announce it, They all deserve it.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    weeds wrote: »
    Agree with most of this. I have Luck over RG3, because Luck was asked to do so much more for his team. If you take the QB position away from all 3 teams, Indy is far and away the worst team. Their best RB (Ballard) was 21st in the league, while Morris was 2nd and Lynch was 3rd. In addition, RG3 missed some time with injuries and in those games the backup 4th round rookie led them to a 4th quarter comeback over a playoff team and threw for over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes in his only full game.

    This is my favorite anti-Luck stat....

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2012/seasontype/2

    Sandwiched in between Gabbert and Tannahill...

    Of the 32 qb's on this list, only Chad Henne had a worse completion %.
    Only Stafford Brees Romo Brady had more attempts
    2nd most INT in NFL

    I just dont think you can ignore all of this and say 2-12 to 11-5=MVP. Its a 16 game sample, and nobody is taking into account strength of schedule etc. Also you have to weigh just how bad Kerry Collins Curtis Painter Dan Orvslosky were. So many factors here I just think the 16 game sample as far as record goes should be about the last one that goes into it.
  • TwoninerTwoniner Member
    edited December 2012
    I don't think RG3 could have gone 11-5 with the Colts. Luck would have a better shot to do as well or better with Skins imo
  • weedsweeds Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    worm33 wrote: »
    This is my favorite anti-Luck stat....

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/quarterbackRating/year/2012/seasontype/2

    Sandwiched in between Gabbert and Tannahill...

    Of the 32 qb's on this list, only Chad Henne had a worse completion %.
    Only Stafford Brees Romo Brady had more attempts
    2nd most INT in NFL

    I just dont think you can ignore all of this and say 2-12 to 11-5=MVP. Its a 16 game sample, and nobody is taking into account strength of schedule etc. Also you have to weigh just how bad Kerry Collins Curtis Painter Dan Orvslosky were. So many factors here I just think the 16 game sample as far as record goes should be about the last one that goes into it.

    But every single team the Colts' played this season knew the ONLY WAY they would lose is if Luck beat them. You can't say that about Washington and Seattle. See for example the Redskins' win last night. RG3 didn't play that well and they still beat a solid team to make the playoffs. If Luck went 9-18 for 100 yards the Colts would lose by 3 touchdowns. Every defense Luck went against was focused on stopping him and their below average WR core, i.e., they were playing the pass. The Colts had no running game, absolutely none. The knock on GB last year was they had no balance and "it's too hard to win just by throwing". It was ultimately their demise in the playoffs, as they were extremely one dimensional. So shouldn't that say something about Luck? Despite every defense knowing Luck was going to drop back and pass time and time again, he was still able to throw for over 4,000 yards and lead a 2-14 team to the playoffs? Yes, I agree RG3 deserves credit for being dual-threat, but at the same time he has the #2 running back in the NFL and was playing in an amazing system that Shannahan put together (who is known for producing 1,000 yard rushers at will). If you took Kirk Cousins and played him on the Colts against Cleveland, I bet he doesn't have nearly the success he did in Washington. Wilson also reaped the benefits of a top-tier running back and great defense and VERY high percentage passes.
  • worm33worm33 Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    weeds wrote: »
    Despite every defense knowing Luck was going to drop back and pass time and time again, he was still able to throw for over 4,000 yards .

    So they threw a lot and he got 4374 yards because of it. Stafford threw a lot and got 4967 yards. I dont really see your point. Luck was 17th in Yards/attempt.
  • weedsweeds Senior Member
    edited December 2012
    worm33 wrote: »
    So they threw a lot and he got 4374 yards because of it. Stafford threw a lot and got 4967 yards. I dont really see your point. Luck was 17th in Yards/attempt.

    And he threw 18 picks because he threw so much. I don't really see your point.
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