His old college picks seemed more like his own opinion. My hunch (besides running well) is that he's getting fed a lot of the NFL stuff as the explanations are a little hokey at times. Nothing wrong with that of course, just my guess.
so Kahuna, gambling profits initially launched you into a wallstreet player and 24 of the last 30 years you've managed to be a profitable hobbyist? truly impressive... love to hear a good success story.
Didn't know I would have to be audited so thorughly, I think it would be easier for all of you, if my CPA would just post my tax returns for the past decade. LOL No I do not play the market at all, as a young man I had a couple big years, so was able to purchase a small hotel and from there I just kept buying , selling , and operating hotels for the past 18 years, I have been very fortunate but believe a lot of it was my hard work. That is my story fella's.
I guess I lied, because I will say one more thing. My thinking on this stuff couldn't be further from yours. In my "real job", I'm always looking to evolve and do things better. I've had interns come in and make suggestions that I've used to make improvements. I think that sports handicapping is the same way, and I'm always looking for ways to get better (whether it be from a "picking games" standpoint or from the standpoint of things like money management, math, variance, understanding who to follow, etc.). There are some things in my life where I take an "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" type of approach, but those things are few and far between.
It is ironic that you commented back, cause I wanted to comment on your "sponge theory", I think that is one of the comments that I laugh about the most. A true sponge absorbs everything, I don't think everyone should absorb everything that is being presented to them, filter the crap out , you don't need to absorb that. In my experience most of the stuff is crap, filtered and thrown away. As far as intern and new ideas, I don't close my mind to ideas about operations and marketing, I was talking more about the high level theory not changing much or at all for the past few decades. Similarly my big pix view on gambling has changed very little since I was a young man. Interesting conversation.
Didn't know I would have to be audited so thorughly, I think it would be easier for all of you, if my CPA would just post my tax returns for the past decade. LOL No I do not play the market at all, as a young man I had a couple big years, so was able to purchase a small hotel and from there I just kept buying , selling , and operating hotels for the past 18 years, I have been very fortunate but believe a lot of it was my hard work. That is my story fella's.
BK I hate to ask how about a comp to the San. Fran Area love it there. JK of course. But I might get down that way in the spring. Dinner and drinks and a game
BK I hate to ask how about a comp to the San. Fran Area love it there. JK of course. But I might get down that way in the spring. Dinner and drinks and a game
Anytime you want , would love the dinner, drinks and the welcomed conversation.
How did he do the last 3 years?
If he doesnt' mention it on his radio show, I'm sure he did poorly.
If he goes back and says "now my winning record going back two years is XX and YY", then it means the year before that was likely poor.
That's the problem. You guys believe 60 games is enough to go by? Just walk by a craps table from time to time, you see players win from time to time, it happens. And guys like Cowherd will also have really nice stretches like he's having this year...without any true ability.
Why do you say without any true ability?!?! Colin knows a ton about college sports and I've noticed NFL and NBA. I really don't get why some of you are hating on him so much. He isn't a service and doesn't make money for his picks. He is on an unbelievable run. Repect it and enjoy. And if you can't say anything but your negative venom, shut the F up!
How did he do the last 3 years?
If he doesnt' mention it on his radio show, I'm sure he did poorly.
If he goes back and says "now my winning record going back two years is XX and YY", then it means the year before that was likely poor.
That's the problem. You guys believe 60 games is enough to go by? Just walk by a craps table from time to time, you see players win from time to time, it happens. And guys like Cowherd will also have really nice stretches like he's having this year...without any true ability.
I don't get it, what does his past have anything to do , with his amazing year he is having this year. Why would you not just ride the wave of success he is having ? I just don't get it, this gets brought up a lot on this website about 60 games is not enough BS, you wait and see his 500 play record. The rest of us will take his picks and go to the bank.
I really don't get this , drives me absolutely nuts !
So that means, none of you guys that believe that theory would have ever played RAS or any other respectable handicapper until year 3 or 4. Look at how many + units you would have given up.
Did I mention this theory drives me absolutely nuts !
C'mon guys, don't be so narrowminded. I'm not going to argue about his succes THIS year. Enjoy it and cash it! Yes, I'm betting them too, but I will be careful next season. My reason? Here's why:
Supercontest YTD picks from past champions:
JARHEAD 34-28-3
SANS SOUCI 35-30-0
FEZZIK 32-30-3
RICHARD STAND 29-35-1
They all won the contest by hitting around 65% in their respective championship years. They haven't been near that since.
So that means, none of you guys that believe that theory would have ever played RAS or any other respectable handicapper until year 3 or 4. Look at how many + units you would have given up.
Did I mention this theory drives me absolutely nuts !
I know this drives you nuts which is why you continue to harp on it, but as a business man surely you can appreciate that a short term track record of success is not truly indicative of future success?
Take Coops for example (sorry buddy). If someone pointed you to BT this year and said this guy Coops absolutely crushed baseball in 2011 you should go there and follow his picks, you would not be very happy right now. (Even though you would still be plus if you had followed from day 1).
I know you are just a hobbyist as you say, and I acknowledge that. But you also have to acknowledge that this is a very serious business for a lot of people on here, and it takes more then 14 good weeks to blindly follow somebody. If his plays are consistently beating the market, then I would take him seriously. My gut says though that he is not being graded against BM and pinny.
Worm, I understand your point of view. However, I still don't get it, or agree with it. I will give you a business example.
At a point Holiday Inn Express hotels were the hottest hotels for business travelers, (for many reasons), seeing this we quickly acquired those properties and rode a success for 3+ years, when Hampton Inns became the new hottest model, then we quickly changed to those properties, now we are talking about millions in investment. Me moved quickly because we understood the advantage and possible profits if we reacted quickly, had we waited as "pros" would do, the window would have closed on us or the profits would not have been as great. I think that is why it is so hard for me to understand the wait and see concept. Again, simply my opinion and only brought the business examples into it, because you brought up the business aspect.
I understand your opinion and why you feel that way, I just simply disagree with it, both as a hobbyist and a businessman. You have to strike while the iron is hot. IMO
a hotel being a 'hot' or smart investment at the time is so far different than a gambler who is experience positive variance - thats why its called gambling so how can you trust someone that is 'hot' as you say w/out a reason or a track record? I just think your comparison of a savvy or smart investment (i.e. purchasing a hotel that is proven to acquire business and develop profit) to a gambler or handicapper is so far irrelevant. Thats not an opinion either thats just common sense BK.
1. Nobody is going to win long term jumping from hot capper to hot capper trying to ride out a hot streak
2. The fact that you "knew" that there were "many reasons" for jumping on the Holiday Inn bandwagon is the functional equivalent of a gambler having sufficient track record information to know that he is following a +EV capper -- worm's point is that he doesn't have the information to know that Cowerd is the "hottest hotel for business travelers" per se
1. Nobody is going to win long term jumping from hot capper to hot capper trying to ride out a hot streak
2. The fact that you "knew" that there were "many reasons" for jumping on the Holiday Inn bandwagon is the functional equivalent of a gambler having sufficient track record information to know that he is following a +EV capper -- worm's point is that he doesn't have the information to know that Cowerd is the "hottest hotel for business travelers" per se
Guess I'm not a gambler then, cause I went 4-1 in NFL (first time betting it since GB debacle) and 2-0 college hoops and I am happy.
Wow... U haven't bet the nfl since that greenbay game... I wish I did that.... This is my first winning week in nfl all season.... Been following Scott's plays.
Good luck the rest of the season!
I encourage everyone to be pay attention to posts 41, 50, 52 and 53 in this thread. As pointed out, the business/investing analogy wasn't a very good one for one main reason (which I've posted I don't know how many times here at BT)...
Streaks in sports betting are not predictable. You cannot ride a "hot" capper until he's "not hot" anymore because you have no way of knowing when he will get hot or when he will cease to be hot. It's not a theory, it's a truth based in math and logic.
That said, I'm not going to repeat myself over and over to those who have no desire to listen, which is of course their prerogative and I don't begrudge them for that. By all means, everyone is free to spend/invest/gamble/waste their money however they see fit.
I encourage everyone to be pay attention to posts 41, 50, 52 and 53 in this thread. As pointed out, the business/investing analogy wasn't a very good one for one main reason (which I've posted I don't know how many times here at BT)...
Streaks in sports betting are not predictable. You cannot ride a "hot" capper until he's "not hot" anymore because you have no way of knowing when he will get hot or when he will cease to be hot. It's not a theory, it's a truth based in math and logic.
That said, I'm not going to repeat myself over and over to those who have no desire to listen, which is of course their prerogative and I don't begrudge them for that. By all means, everyone is free to spend/invest/gamble/waste their money however they see fit.
This is a completely serious question that I have thought about asking for a while and fits in to this discussion, so here goes.
Assume that I understand streaks are random and unpredictable (i do). Also, assume that I know that sample size counts and I know what constitutes a statistically significant sample size (again, I do). So don't waste time rehashing that portion of the discussion.
What do statistics say about isolating single seasons? That is to say: why can't someone have superior understanding of the construct of the current 32 teams as they are assembled during the 2012-13 season? Perhaps Cowherd doesn't have a model that works from season to season because its a "poor" model. Can't it still be the case that his model has a good grip on factors that are weighing strongly in the frame of this single season but might not next season? And has it also been proven (statistically) that early season success or failure has ZERO predictive value for the remainder of the season?'
Maybe Cowherd wont have another single winning season, but why shouldn't his success to date demonstrate that he has a SUPERIOR handle on THIS SEASON?
2 notes:
1) This is not argumentative... I am not asserting my points, I am asking if they might have some validity.
2) Cowherd might be getting his picks from another source, fine... this question was meant to be asked as a hypothetical for any joe making picks.
Maybe Cowherd wont have another single winning season, but why shouldn't his success to date demonstrate that he has a SUPERIOR handle on THIS SEASON?
I'll answer generally since both your question and my comments weren't meant to be Cowherd-specific.
My take (and this is basically just opinion, so take it for what it's worth) is not that his short term success "shouldn't" demonstrate that, it certainly could. The problem is that you don't have the statistics to back it up, so you're going on more of an unprovable hypothesis. Because we know that < 1% of people win at gambling, let alone capping a tough market like NFL late in the week, that's the type of hypothesis most serious bettors wouldn't want to put their money behind. There's enough uncertainty involved in following cappers who have actually won over a much longer period of time. If others do, that's up to them. As I mentioned, I have no qualms with people spending/investing/gambling their money however they see fit.
I used to cap NFL sides over at SSB and won for my first three seasons posting. The following season, as part of the subscription portion of the site, I went 30-9-1, by far my best season. Was I particularly dialed in that season? Possibly. Was it positive variance? Definitely. After that, I was slightly negative for a few years before having a terrible season and deciding that I no longer had evidence to support that I had an edge anymore. I mention this just to illustrate how difficult it can be to predict the results of a capper you are considering following, even with several seasons of data. (I of course could have used others as an example, but I figured I would use myself so as not to unintentionally insult anyone). Again, because of this, the idea of following someone after a very short run of success becomes that much less sound to serious bettors.
Comments
BK I hate to ask how about a comp to the San. Fran Area love it there. JK of course. But I might get down that way in the spring. Dinner and drinks and a game
Anytime you want , would love the dinner, drinks and the welcomed conversation.
Titans +5.5
Panthers +3.5
Browns -6.5
Ravens +2.5
4-1 day for Colin... im a believer.
I second that
If he doesnt' mention it on his radio show, I'm sure he did poorly.
If he goes back and says "now my winning record going back two years is XX and YY", then it means the year before that was likely poor.
That's the problem. You guys believe 60 games is enough to go by? Just walk by a craps table from time to time, you see players win from time to time, it happens. And guys like Cowherd will also have really nice stretches like he's having this year...without any true ability.
cmon coops, we all know that 4 - 1 = 3. simple math
I don't get it, what does his past have anything to do , with his amazing year he is having this year. Why would you not just ride the wave of success he is having ? I just don't get it, this gets brought up a lot on this website about 60 games is not enough BS, you wait and see his 500 play record. The rest of us will take his picks and go to the bank.
I really don't get this , drives me absolutely nuts !
4-1=+3
+3=good
Did I mention this theory drives me absolutely nuts !
great actually. the man is having a special season.
Supercontest YTD picks from past champions:
JARHEAD 34-28-3
SANS SOUCI 35-30-0
FEZZIK 32-30-3
RICHARD STAND 29-35-1
They all won the contest by hitting around 65% in their respective championship years. They haven't been near that since.
I know this drives you nuts which is why you continue to harp on it, but as a business man surely you can appreciate that a short term track record of success is not truly indicative of future success?
Take Coops for example (sorry buddy). If someone pointed you to BT this year and said this guy Coops absolutely crushed baseball in 2011 you should go there and follow his picks, you would not be very happy right now. (Even though you would still be plus if you had followed from day 1).
I know you are just a hobbyist as you say, and I acknowledge that. But you also have to acknowledge that this is a very serious business for a lot of people on here, and it takes more then 14 good weeks to blindly follow somebody. If his plays are consistently beating the market, then I would take him seriously. My gut says though that he is not being graded against BM and pinny.
At a point Holiday Inn Express hotels were the hottest hotels for business travelers, (for many reasons), seeing this we quickly acquired those properties and rode a success for 3+ years, when Hampton Inns became the new hottest model, then we quickly changed to those properties, now we are talking about millions in investment. Me moved quickly because we understood the advantage and possible profits if we reacted quickly, had we waited as "pros" would do, the window would have closed on us or the profits would not have been as great. I think that is why it is so hard for me to understand the wait and see concept. Again, simply my opinion and only brought the business examples into it, because you brought up the business aspect.
I understand your opinion and why you feel that way, I just simply disagree with it, both as a hobbyist and a businessman. You have to strike while the iron is hot. IMO
2. The fact that you "knew" that there were "many reasons" for jumping on the Holiday Inn bandwagon is the functional equivalent of a gambler having sufficient track record information to know that he is following a +EV capper -- worm's point is that he doesn't have the information to know that Cowerd is the "hottest hotel for business travelers" per se
just my 2 cents
Extremely valid point Jimmymo.
most gamblers are never happy (as most are degens) although they certainly should be satisfied with a winning day.
Wow... U haven't bet the nfl since that greenbay game... I wish I did that.... This is my first winning week in nfl all season.... Been following Scott's plays.
Good luck the rest of the season!
Streaks in sports betting are not predictable. You cannot ride a "hot" capper until he's "not hot" anymore because you have no way of knowing when he will get hot or when he will cease to be hot. It's not a theory, it's a truth based in math and logic.
That said, I'm not going to repeat myself over and over to those who have no desire to listen, which is of course their prerogative and I don't begrudge them for that. By all means, everyone is free to spend/invest/gamble/waste their money however they see fit.
This is a completely serious question that I have thought about asking for a while and fits in to this discussion, so here goes.
Assume that I understand streaks are random and unpredictable (i do). Also, assume that I know that sample size counts and I know what constitutes a statistically significant sample size (again, I do). So don't waste time rehashing that portion of the discussion.
What do statistics say about isolating single seasons? That is to say: why can't someone have superior understanding of the construct of the current 32 teams as they are assembled during the 2012-13 season? Perhaps Cowherd doesn't have a model that works from season to season because its a "poor" model. Can't it still be the case that his model has a good grip on factors that are weighing strongly in the frame of this single season but might not next season? And has it also been proven (statistically) that early season success or failure has ZERO predictive value for the remainder of the season?'
Maybe Cowherd wont have another single winning season, but why shouldn't his success to date demonstrate that he has a SUPERIOR handle on THIS SEASON?
2 notes:
1) This is not argumentative... I am not asserting my points, I am asking if they might have some validity.
2) Cowherd might be getting his picks from another source, fine... this question was meant to be asked as a hypothetical for any joe making picks.
I'll answer generally since both your question and my comments weren't meant to be Cowherd-specific.
My take (and this is basically just opinion, so take it for what it's worth) is not that his short term success "shouldn't" demonstrate that, it certainly could. The problem is that you don't have the statistics to back it up, so you're going on more of an unprovable hypothesis. Because we know that < 1% of people win at gambling, let alone capping a tough market like NFL late in the week, that's the type of hypothesis most serious bettors wouldn't want to put their money behind. There's enough uncertainty involved in following cappers who have actually won over a much longer period of time. If others do, that's up to them. As I mentioned, I have no qualms with people spending/investing/gambling their money however they see fit.
I used to cap NFL sides over at SSB and won for my first three seasons posting. The following season, as part of the subscription portion of the site, I went 30-9-1, by far my best season. Was I particularly dialed in that season? Possibly. Was it positive variance? Definitely. After that, I was slightly negative for a few years before having a terrible season and deciding that I no longer had evidence to support that I had an edge anymore. I mention this just to illustrate how difficult it can be to predict the results of a capper you are considering following, even with several seasons of data. (I of course could have used others as an example, but I figured I would use myself so as not to unintentionally insult anyone). Again, because of this, the idea of following someone after a very short run of success becomes that much less sound to serious bettors.